Can Japan's 'safe' minister Yoko Kamikawa become PM as Kishida's star wanes over funding scandal?

With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's poll ratings hitting record lows and the Japanese public seething at senior ruling party members embroiled in financial scandals, debate has turned to the nation's next leader - and the possibility it might be a woman: recently appointed Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa.

Kishida's numbers were tumbling in the latter part of last year, sinking to 22 per cent in mid-December, over revelations that dozens of members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had failed to declare funds earned from political fundraising events and simply pocketed the money.

The fallout from the scandal has continued into the new year, with the arrest on Sunday of Yoshitaka Ikeda, an LDP backbencher, on suspicion that he took funds amounting to 48.26 million yen (US$331,800) from 2017 to 2022 and failed to report them.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The scandal has shaken the LDP's powerful Abe faction, previously headed by the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, which has traditionally held a great deal of influence over incoming leaders.

Local reports claim the group amassed some 500 million yen in a secret slush fund, and virtually every member has been implicated, with some political pundits suggesting it could even "collapse" under the weight of the bad publicity.

Kishida has launched a task force to tackle the scandal in an attempt to restore support for his government.

However, with Kishida weakened, potential rivals disgraced, and even politicians who have managed to avoid the taint of scandal failing to firmly state their cases for the leadership position, top diplomat Kamikawa has been tipped as a quiet challenger.

Kamikawa has a master's degree from Harvard University and was elected to the Diet for the first time in 2000.

She quickly rose through the LDP's ranks and served as minister of justice - rubber-stamping the executions of one person in 2014 and a further 15 people between October 2017 and July 2018, 13 of whom were members of the apocalyptic Aum Shinrikyo cult - before being appointed foreign minister in September.

Kamikawa burnished her reputation as a skilled and engaging diplomat this week with a visit to Kyiv, where she met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and later gave a press briefing from an underground bomb shelter as air raid sirens sounded.

She then travelled to Poland and Finland, where she reassured the two countries' leaders that Japan would stand by them in the face of Russian aggression.

The sense in some quarters is that Kamikawa had no hand in the party's financial scandals and has successfully distanced herself from the issue while performing her role well on the global stage.

"Can she be the next prime minister? Why not?" asked Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

"So many of the major figures in the LDP are caught up in the funding scandal or have other baggage to deal with, so maybe it is time for the party to think about doing something different, something radical," she told This Week in Asia.

"The LDP has lost so much public support over the scandal, it is possible some in the party want a larger reset to convince people they are serious about changing this time."

The Abe faction has lost much of its influence in recent weeks and this may be an opportunity for another faction or an individual unaffiliated with a group within the party, such as Kamikawa, to "play a leading role as the party looks to the future", according to Murakami.

There are a few more women who might potentially run for the LDP's leadership, including Tomomi Inada, who has held a number of ministerial portfolios - most recently defence - and Sanae Takaichi, the current minister of economic security.

But both face challenges. Inada is a member of the crumbling Abe faction, while Takaichi is an outspoken hawk whose views are too right-wing for most in the party to swallow.

"To me, Kamikawa is a person who has been largely behind the scenes, not causing any problems, and she has been a 'safe' minister for Kishida," Murakami said. "But it is up to her if she wants to take things to the next stage."

Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University, said Kamikawa was a "safe pair of political hands" but was sceptical she would be able to generate sufficient support among her fellow politicians to become prime minister.

"We know that she is an accomplished woman, a Harvard graduate, she has been in Ukraine, and she has held a number of senior positions in the government," Nagy said.

"But I question whether she has the support within the party to reach the critical mass required to become prime minister."

The LDP's factions, even though many have been weakened, were still more powerful than rank-and-file members of the party's prefectural chapters, Nagy pointed out.

"The LDP could do itself a favour by pushing someone of the calibre of Kamikawa, but I am not sure if she has the experience or skills to deal with all the factional infighting within the party," he said.

The consequence of that and other potential challengers falling by the wayside, Nagy said, was that Kishida's position had probably been strengthened and he "is likely to be with us for quite a lot longer than everyone thought just a few weeks ago".

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.