LDP's pick for Japan PM Fumio Kishida won't 'rock the boat' on US and China, analysts say

The "old guard" of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Wednesday once again defied popular will by electing Fumio Kishida as the new leader of both the party and the nation, with more critical analysts suggesting that party elders wanted a "puppet" who would bend to their wishes rather than a younger maverick as prime minister.

Kishida, a 64-year-old former foreign minister, was elected in a second round of voting with 257 votes from LDP politicians, after none of the initial four candidates won a majority in the first stage.

His main rival, 58-year-old Taro Kono, won more votes in the first round thanks largely to the support of rank-and-file LDP members, but fell victim to factional rivalries and the conviction of the conservative wing of the party that he is too centrist and reform-minded.

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In the first round of voting, Kono won 169 votes from regional chapters of the party, as opposed to just 110 for Kishida.

Those figures tallied with opinion polls conducted ahead of the vote, with 47.4 per cent of party members supporting Kono over just 22.4 per cent backing Kishida. It was a similar story in the wider Japanese public, where close to 50 per cent wanted Kono as their next leader.

Kono has been popular for getting Japan's roll out through its teething stages, and has been known for efforts to reduce bureaucracy, including doing away with the "hanko" stamp requirement when residents make applications to government agencies.

Significantly, however, just 86 MPs backed Kono in the first round, compared to 146 who voted for Kishida, with the two men separated by a single vote and forcing the second round, where conservatives rallied behind Kishida.

The two women candidates, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda, were eliminated in the first round of voting, although the ultraconservative Takaichi won 188 votes, a number that was higher than anticipated.

The initial four candidates running in LDP's leadership race: Taro Kono, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda. Photo: AP alt=The initial four candidates running in LDP's leadership race: Taro Kono, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda. Photo: AP

"Even though Kono was clearly more popular with rank-and-file members of the party, the party's election system effectively gives votes in the second round more weight, meaning it is more important for a candidate to earn the support of his or her parliamentary colleagues and the party's bigger factions," said Koichi Nakano, a professor of politics at Tokyo's Sophia University.

Power within the LDP is still "strongly tilted in favour of the old guard", said Nakano, singling out former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and current Finance Minister Taro Aso as the most influential forces behind the scenes.

"They want the party and the government to stay the same," he told This Week in Asia. "They don't want to change the current arrangements in the Diet and they knew it was possible that Kono might try to do that.

"Right now, Abe can play the part of a 'puppet master' over Kishida, but remain in the background," Nakano said.

Jesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, called Kishida's victory "a win for the establishment".

"Kishida stands for stability, for not rocking the boat and most importantly, doing what elite technocrats tell him to do," he said.

Taro Kono, left, lost to Fumio Kishida. File photo: AP alt=Taro Kono, left, lost to Fumio Kishida. File photo: AP

Kishida and Abe both entered the Diet for the first time in 1993, and Kishida showed "unfailing loyalty" towards Abe during his years as prime minister, when he was rewarded in turn with ministerial portfolios, Nakano said.

Describing Kishida as "docile and malleable", Nakano said Abe would have been very aware that Kono would be harder to control.

"Another consideration for Abe was that he still intends to make a comeback as prime minister, and it would have been more difficult if Kono had won, as he is significantly younger and has a personality that is likely to have appealed to a lot of younger voters," Nakano said.

Kishida, on the other hand, is more likely to hand over power in a couple of years if Abe asked.

In an acceptance speech, Kishida vowed to lead a transformed party in a general election due by November 28, and continue to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, which has battered Japan's economy.

"The LDP leadership election is over. Let us all face the lower house and the upper house elections as one," he said.

"Our national crisis continues. We need to keep working hard on the coronavirus response with strong determination, and we need to compile a tens of trillions of yen of stimulus package by the end of the year."

Kishida's victory is unlikely to trigger a huge shift in policies as Japan seeks to cope with an assertive China and revive an economy hit by the pandemic, with the soft-spoken MP highlighting the need to focus on reducing income disparity.

Jeffrey Hornung, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, said Kishida would continue to emphasise its security ties with the US.

"Kishida will continue to prioritise the alliance and find ways to strengthen it: a free and open Indo-Pacific will continue to be a mainstay of Japan's diplomatic toolkit in its outreach to the region; and he will continue to take a hard position against China."

A Tokyo resident walks past a poster depicting the LDP's leadership candidates. Photo: AFP alt=A Tokyo resident walks past a poster depicting the LDP's leadership candidates. Photo: AFP

Kishida has said he wants to strengthen Japan's coastguard, and backs passing of a resolution condemning China's treatment of members of the Uygur minority. He wants to appoint a prime ministerial aide to monitor the human rights situation there.

"Taiwan is at the frontline of the stand-off between the US and China," he said in a Bloomberg interview earlier this month. "Looking at the situation with Hong Kong and the Uygurs, I have a strong feeling that the Taiwan Strait will be the next big problem."

Lee Young-chae, a professor at Tokyo's Keisen University told Reuters that Kishida would try to improve relations with South Korea.

"He won't make things worse, and will try to avoid any case that will worsen the current situation. Basically, he is the person who thinks that improvement in ties with South Korea is connected with Japan's national interests, in terms of dealing with China and North Korea."

Kishida has also stressed the need to distribute wealth to more households, in contrast to the focus of Abe's policies on boosting corporate profits in the hope benefits trickled down to wage-earners.

Fumio Kishida was criticised over a picture he posted on Twitter on September 1, 2020, showing his wife serving him dinner. Photo: Twitter alt=Fumio Kishida was criticised over a picture he posted on Twitter on September 1, 2020, showing his wife serving him dinner. Photo: Twitter

The politician's victory is also something of a comeback, after he made a leadership bid when Abe stepped down in September last year.

Kishida had apparently anticipated having the support of Abe in that election, but the outgoing prime minister switched late in the day to backing Yoshihide Suga, his loyal and long-serving chief cabinet secretary - but who has performed dismally since being elected leader of the party and the nation.

Kishida did not help himself after he shared a picture on Twitter showing his wife serving him a meal after she had travelled 800km to Tokyo from his hometown of Hiroshima, to support his candidacy.

The image showed him seated in a suit and tie as his wife stood at the edge of the table in an apron, sparking a storm of criticism, with Twitter users describing it "anachronistic" and resembling a relationship between a master and a maid.

Still, Kishida has demonstrated that one year can be a long time in Japanese politics and that continuing to support a politician who switched his support elsewhere can pay off over the longer term.

Reporting by Reuters, Kyodo

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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