IN a civil court, the prosecution only has to prove their case on the balance of probability, ie, that the charge is more likely to be true than not. In a criminal court, however, the burden of proof is much higher, and the prosecution must prove that their version of events is true beyond reasonable doubt.
But what is reasonable doubt? And can it be quantified? Doubt can never be eradicated and no matter how certain you may be of something, there is always the possibility that it is not so. But what is a reasonable probability that something is true? 80%? 90%? 99%? We put four true-life scenarios to saucy maths wizard Carol Vorderman, and asked her to look at them with a statistician’s eye, crunching the numbers to establish the truth.
Casebook Number 1
this year, 45-year-old Alfred Cinnabun walked gingerly into the A&E department of Queen’s Midical Centre in Nottingham. X-rays showed that he had a TV remote control device lodged up his rectum. He informed medical staff that he had slipped over when changing the TV channel whilst wearing a loose-fitting bath
