Will Russia sanctions batter rest of world? A lot will depend on oil.

The military outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains unknown, but its economic fallout is clear.

Higher prices, lower growth, and more inflation. The remaining questions are: how much higher and for how long?

The world is already feeling the initial effects from the sanctions wall the West is quickly erecting around Russia. Oil prices have reached an 11-year high. Wheat is trading in record territory. And this may only be the beginning. The longer the war drags on, especially if civilian casualties mount, the more the pressure will grow for the West to do even more to squeeze Russia. And that would mean closing the giant gap that remains in the West’s sanctions wall: Russian energy.

If the United States uses its powers to stop Russia from exporting oil, the fallout for Western economies is likely to become far