Ukraine-Russia crisis: China benefits if the US pivots back to Europe, but it won't want full-blown war - and would rather Taiwan doesn't get mentioned

As one Chinese saying goes, no matter how much one plans things out, life always intervenes.

Back in 2000 and 2001, George W Bush, in his presidential campaign and in the first six months of his presidency, sharply criticised his predecessor Bill Clinton's notion of "strategic partnership" with China and instead labelled Beijing as a "strategic competitor", seeing China as a long-term threat.

Among other things, he pledged to do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan as his administration signalled it would enhance arms sales to the self-governing island.

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His administration's initial emphasis on an adversarial outlook on its relations with China deepened in April 2001 when a US navy spy plane accidentally collided with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea, sending bilateral ties into a tailspin.

Then everything changed on September 11 when the United States suffered its worst terrorist attack in history, prompting the Bush administration to focus on fighting terrorism worldwide as its overarching priority. Relations between the two countries were later to improve so much that Bush and his family attended the Beijing Summer Olympic Games in 2008 and at that time Chinese officials labelled his presidency as the best for US-China relations.

Now back to the present time. Just as US President Joe Biden has inherited Donald Trump's chaotic but adversarial policies towards China and has gone one better by rallying America's Western partners in a united front to contain Beijing ("the most serious competitor"), the Ukraine situation has exploded.

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine's breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, after recognising them as independent, fears about an all-out war have been growing.

No doubt, the unfolding crisis has added a new dynamic to China's tortuous relations with the US and its Western allies.

As the crisis is set to consume the attention of Washington and Brussels and other capitals of the world for the next few years, it is very likely that their united front pressure against China will ease.

Of course, it is naive to think that Washington's focus on Russia would lead to any fundamental shift in its relationship with Beijing, like it did more than 20 years ago. That ship has already sailed as confronting China was one of the few things that united the politicians in Washington before the Ukraine crisis.

But Beijing will certainly gain more room to manoeuvre and more geopolitical benefits if the conflict over Ukraine persists.

But Washington's miscalculations have pushed Moscow and Beijing into a closer bond.

Before Putin's visit to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games and meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this month, there was speculation that Chinese officials were worried that Putin would take action against Ukraine during the Games, which would have distracted the world from China's moment of glory. Intriguingly, Putin announced his moves against Ukraine just one day after the Games had concluded.

Following the meeting between Xi and Putin, the Chinese state media hailed a strategic partnership of "no limits". Xi stressed commitment between the two countries to deepening back-to-back strategic coordination and upholding international equity and justice side by side in the face of profound and complex changes in the international situation, Xinhua reported.

But it turns out there are limits. China has stopped short of supporting Russia's moves on Ukraine and senior officials including Foreign Minister Wang Yi have called for more diplomacy and negotiations to reduce tensions.

But on Wednesday, Hua Chunying, the foreign ministry spokesperson, minced no words in accusing the US of creating fear and panic and talking up the threat of war and expressing opposition to new sanctions imposed on Russia.

From a Chinese perspective, with the Ukraine situation threatening to get out of hand, Washington's priority will shift to Eastern Europe from its Indo-Pacific strategy which is aimed at containing China. That is clearly in Beijing's favour.

It is very unlikely that Washington and its Western allies will have the time and resources to confront Beijing and Moscow at the same time.

But as Beijing's top foreign priority is to ensure a relatively stable environment so as to develop its economy, it certainly does not want to see a full-blown war over Ukraine, which would have a devastating impact on the world economy and create major disruptions to supply chains. Besides, China is also Ukraine's largest trading partner.

So it is expected to do a delicate dance to secure more diplomatic leverage, backing Moscow's security interests while at the same time trying to avoid antagonising Washington too much.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials are clearly uncomfortable with discussions at home and abroad about the link between Ukraine and Taiwan.

From Beijing's point of view, there is no comparison between the two situations as Ukraine is a sovereign country while Taiwan is considered a province of China and is not recognised by the international community except for a handful of small countries.

Beijing has two concerns.

Some Chinese analysts are worried that the pro-independence movement in Taiwan could take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to bring its agenda to international attention.

Secondly, they are also concerned that the crisis will prod the nationalistic elements on the Chinese mainland to influence the national discourse and pressure the Chinese government to get tougher on Taiwan by learning from and emulating some of Russia's tactics in relation to Taiwan.

But Beijing has its own plans for Taiwan, with which it says it will reunite through peaceful means or by force if necessary.

Making the island a hot international issue under the current circumstances is the last thing Beijing wants.

Wang Xiangwei is a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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