US wary of China 'laying groundwork' for using Russia's Ukraine playbook in Asia, General Kenneth S. Wilsbach says
The United States is wary of China's tacit support for Russia's ongoing aggression towards Ukraine and the possibility that Beijing might one day use similar tactics to advance its interests in Asia, Washington's top air force official in the region has said.
General Kenneth S. Wilsbach, commander of the US Pacific Air Forces, said China appeared to have aligned itself with Russia, including by recently backing Moscow's objection to Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation or Nato.
"When you look at what China has said ... it makes you concerned about what China might consider doing in the future that might look very similar to what's happening with Russia and Ukraine," he said.
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"Perhaps they're just laying the groundwork because they may want to do that at some point in the future and the United States [will] take issue with that."
Russia has in recent days massed over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. While it had denied planning to invade the country, it has also made a series of demands regarding the security arrangement in Europe.
Specifically, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Nato to halt its expansion eastward and promise never to accept Ukraine as a member. The Nato alliance was originally created to deter Soviet expansion in Europe after the second world war; in 2004 it grew to include the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which had once been part of the Soviet Union.
In recent days Moscow has claimed to have withdrawn some troops from the Ukrainian border, but US President Joe Biden on Tuesday said an invasion remained very much a possibility. The US and its European allies have threatened to respond with sanctions to any Russian invasion.
China's foreign ministry spokesman has urged the various parties to be rational and solve the problems through dialogue and negotiations.
Wilsbach, a four-star general, said China might view the crisis as "an opportunity for gain", and Washington would consider this a factor in its future strategy.
"From the standpoint of will China see what's happening in Europe and maybe try to do something here in the Indo Pacific? Absolutely yes," he said. "I would suggest that we all watch China very closely for what opportunities they try to glean from the crisis in Europe."
Wilsbach did not detail how he thought China would capitalise on the situation but said it would not be surprising if Beijing "tried something ... provocative and see how the international community reacts".
The general was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Singapore Airshow, a biennial gathering of aviation and military leaders being held on a smaller scale this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
He said his conversations with regional defence leaders had centred around China. European nations, such as France, Britain and Germany, had in recent months deployed assets to the Indo-Pacific region and were driven by the same worry, he added.
"What they are concerned about is ... a China whose objective is not to have a free and open Indo Pacific but rather that we would all comply with the way China wants to do it," said Wilsbach, who is also the air component commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command.
As examples of this, he said Beijing had been "taking territory that does not belong to [it]" in India and the South China Sea, and that it had gone "back on its promise" to allow democratic principles in Hong Kong.
Air chiefs he had spoken to feared that China would get its way, he said.
Asked about the possibility of a regional armed conflict given China's increased assertiveness in the skies and seas - just last month, Beijing sent 52 aircraft into Taiwan's air defence identification zone in the space of two days - Wilsbach said one advantage the US had was "allies and partners and the number of like-minded nations that think that this could be a threat".
These countries, which he did not name, had watched China's territorial activities, and also the rapid modernisation of the Chinese air force and navy, he said.
China seemed to have a similar mindset to Russia but the two militaries were not interoperable, he said. Conversely, Washington frequently trains with its allies and partners, meaning their militaries are more aligned and interoperable.
"That's a key message that I'd like to point out, that it's not China versus the United States. It's China versus our entire team."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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