Hong Kong national security law: all eyes on the US, but Beijing holds all the cards

China's decision to impose the national security law directly on Hong Kong, passed by the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) on Thursday, has once again plunged the city into deep turmoil and sparked a renewed backlash from the international community.

The timing of the move may appear sudden but it is not entirely unexpected. It has been in the works for months after the anti-Beijing and anti-government protests which started in June threw the city into chaos for the latter half of last year. More than anything, these protests heightened fears among Chinese leaders that Beijing was losing control over the once-freewheeling city, 23 years after it returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

China's introduction of the new law will exacerbate tense relations with Washington, which said on Wednesday that Hong Kong no longer "maintains a high degree of autonomy from China", paving the way for US measures to punish both Hong Kong and mainland China. But Beijing is very unlikely to budge under the pressure, not least because Washington and Beijing have been going mano a mano in the Chinese territory in a battle for influence for years and Beijing now wants to show who the boss is.

The law has prompted many people to lament what they see as the end of Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, guaranteed in the Basic Law, the city's mini-constitution, and under the formula "one country, two systems", which was supposed to last until 2047.

But it is still too early to predict the demise of Hong Kong or what Hong Kong will become. Full details of the law and how it will be implemented have not been released. Reports have indicated that the NPC's standing committee is expected to flesh out the law with detailed implementation measures within the next one or two months.

In response, Chinese officials and state media have argued that Hong Kong is constitutionally obliged to enact the national security law to ban "secession, subversion, infiltration, and sabotage activities" against the Chinese government, as well as interference in Hong Kong's internal affairs by foreign forces. As Hong Kong itself has failed to legislate the law since 2003 when a similar law was shelved because of strong popular opposition, Beijing has finally decided to step in, signalling the end of its patience after nearly 20 years of waiting.

Over the past week, Chinese leaders have tried to offer assurances that the proposed law would target only a small minority of criminals and the vast majority of law-abiding Hong Kong people should have nothing to fear.

Indeed, all countries, including the United States, have national security laws to protect their national interests.

But the reality is that the vast majority of Hong Kong people have legitimate concerns about whether the new law will be broadly defined to stifle dissent and critics and whether the city's capitalist way of life will ever be the same again.

This has stemmed from the growing distrust between pro-democracy and pro-Western people in Hong Kong and officials in Beijing over the past decade, even though the economic links between the city and the mainland have been increasingly intertwined.

Both sides tend to think the worst of each other's motives in regard to any political or legal development. This was apparent from the nearly six months of violent protests that rocked Hong Kong last year; many people in the city believed that Beijing was tightening controls over Hong Kong by imposing an extradition law which would have allowed criminals to be sent to the mainland. The fact that Hong Kong's local leaders rather than officials in Beijing initiated the extradition law, which has since been rescinded, has become moot.

But the violent protests last year spooked Chinese leaders who were genuinely afraid that they were losing control of the city, particularly after a small band of rioters attacked China's central government liaison office in the city and destroyed properties owned by Chinese companies. To add to their humiliation and fears, Washington appeared to be gaining the upper hand in the territory, as many protesters waved American flags and begged US President Donald Trump to liberate Hong Kong.

In the short term, Hong Kong is bracing itself for more large-scale and almost certainly violent protests following the approval of the resolution on the law on Thursday. However, such protests may further strengthen China's argument as to why the law is necessary.

Some overseas analysts have suggested that China's introduction of the law is part of its efforts to deflect the blame for its initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak, first reported in China in late December, which has since grown into a global pandemic. Beijing and Washington have since engaged in a dangerous blame game which has further strained bilateral ties.

But such claims are wide off the mark. Chinese leaders apparently decided to get tougher on Hong Kong at the annual gathering of the Communist Party's Central Committee members in November last year. The end-of-meeting communique stated then that China would "establish a sound legal system and enforcement mechanism for safeguarding national security" in Hong Kong, at a time when the violent protests were set to continue into a fifth month.

In February, the leadership reshuffle at China's cabinet-level office in charge of Hong Kong and Macau affairs and its liaison office in Hong Kong was a further indicator of Beijing's intention to adopt a tougher line.

Anti-government protesters and members of the press in Mong Kok during a demonstration against the national anthem law and the national security law. Photo: Sam Tsang alt=Anti-government protesters and members of the press in Mong Kok during a demonstration against the national anthem law and the national security law. Photo: Sam Tsang

As NPC approval of the resolution on the law, albeit a formality, was the only course of action, the timing of the announcement was dictated by that of the NPC's annual meeting which was delayed to late May from its usual slot in early March because of the pandemic.

Intriguingly, how Hong Kong fares following the introduction of the law will be influenced by how Washington reacts as the city has sadly become a pawn in a geopolitical game between Beijing and Washington.

Ever since the violent protests started in June last year, officials in Beijing and the state media have frequently accused Washington and Taiwan as being "the black hands" behind the demonstrations.

Washington has consistently dismissed the allegations. But Beijing's fear of Washington using Hong Kong as a base to hurt China's national interests is one of the key reasons behind the introduction of the national security law.

Following Washington's Wednesday announcement, there has been intense speculation about what the US can and will do to hurt Hong Kong and China.

Ending Hong Kong's special trade status could hit the city's exports but it has limited trade with the US and China relies far less on Hong Kong through re-exporting and inflows of foreign capital than it did 10 years ago.

According to US media reports, the US could punish Chinese officials involved in enacting the law or some Chinese companies, which would make it difficult for them to access financial services in Hong Kong.

By and large, the impact of US sanctions would be more symbolic than material.

Foremost, whatever action is taken by Washington will surely hurt Hong Kong's standing as the Asian financial centre but it remains to be seen whether this would trigger intense capital flight.

So far there has not been any obvious sign of capital flight and Hong Kong's property market has remained largely stable.

Besides, Washington's action will also hurt US business interests in the city. According to the Hong Kong government,1,300 American companies have set up regional headquarters in the city, where more than 85,000 American citizens live and work.

The fact that Beijing has decided to push ahead with the national security law at a time when China already faces the worst international environment in decades means that it is fully prepared for the growing international backlash.

From Beijing's perspective, Hong Kong losing some of its shine as Asia's financial centre is definitely more acceptable than a city slipping out of its control.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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