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Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024.
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Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment
Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker
(03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s
(13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market
(20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started?
(23:55) VanEck Ad
(24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business
(29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market
(36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh
(40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales
(44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds
(50:18) Tesla
(53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.)
(54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers
(01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis
(01:12:50) Macro
(01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis
(01:22:12) Options
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.