This post is a part of Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence: “Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation.” The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else.SummaryExpected value (EV) maximization is a common method for making decisions across different cause areas. The EV of an action is an average of the possible outcomes of that action, weighted by the probability of those outcomes occurring if the action is performed.When comparing actions that would benefit different species (e.g., malaria prevention for humans, cage-free campaigns for chickens, stunning operations in shrimp farms), calculating EV includes assessing the probability that the individuals it affects are sentient.Small invertebrates, like shrimp and insects, have relatively low probabilities [...] ---Outline:(04:12) 1. Introduction(07:13) 2. Results of EV maximization(10:33) 3. Dissatisfaction with results of EV maximization(14:57) 4. Risk(16:25) 5. Risk aversion as avoiding worst case outcomes(16:30) 5.1. Risk aversion about outcomes(18:22) 5.2. A formal model of risk aversion about outcomes(21:45) 6. Risk aversion as avoiding inefficacy(22:12) 6.1. Difference-making risk aversion(23:45) 6.2. The risk of wasting money on non-sentient creatures(27:10) 6.3. Is difference-making risk aversion rational?(29:10) 6.4. A formal model of difference-making risk aversion(32:51) 7. Risk as avoiding ambiguity(40:19) 8. What about chickens?(45:01) 9. Conclusions(47:19) AcknowledgmentsThe original text contained 34 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. ---
First published:
October 16th, 2023

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HMakzketADQq4bkvD/the-risks-and-rewards-of-prioritizing-animals-of-uncertain
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.