This post is a part of Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence: “Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation.” The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else. This post presents a software tool we're developing to better understand risk and effectiveness.Executive SummaryThe cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool under development by Rethink Priorities to produce cost-effectiveness evaluations in different cause areas.The CCM enables evaluations of interventions in global health and development, animal welfare, and existential risk mitigation.The CCM also includes functionality for evaluating research projects aimed at improving existing interventions or discovering more effective alternatives.The CCM follows a Monte Carlo approach to assessing probabilities.The CCM accepts user-supplied distributions as parameter [...] ---Outline:(00:43) Executive Summary(04:24) Purpose(05:36) Key Features(05:52) We model uncertainty with simulations(06:38) We incorporate user-specified parameter distributions(07:17) Our results capture outcome ineffectiveness(08:42) We enable users to specify the probability of extinction for different future eras(09:28) Structure(10:08) Intervention module(10:40) Global Health and Development(11:14) Animal Welfare(12:00) Existential Risk Mitigation(13:59) Research projects module(14:56) Limitations(15:12) It is geared towards specific kinds of interventions(16:24) Distributions are a questionable way of handling deep uncertainty(17:13) The model doesn’t handle model uncertainty(18:01) The model assumes parameter independence(18:59) Lessons(19:06) The expected value of existential risk mitigation interventions depends on future population dynamics(20:15) The value of existential risk mitigation is extremely variable(21:38) Tail-end results can capture a huge amount of expected value(22:22) Unrepresented correlations may be decisive(23:43) Future Plans(24:49) Acknowledgements---
First published:
November 3rd, 2023

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pniDWyjc9vY5sjGre/rethink-priorities-cross-cause-cost-effectiveness-model
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.