It was 2020 and plant-based meats were hot. Sales were up 45% that year and expectations were high. The industry set its sights on performing as well as plant-based beverages, which had reached about a 15% dollar share of the U.S. beverage market at the time. In the $300 billion U.S. meat market, a 15% share would be a massive $45 billion prize.
But then, starting in 2021, plant-based meats hit a wall. U.S. sales began three consecutive years of declines. Headlines described plant-based meats as “bleeding” and “just another fad”.
So what happened?
In this episode, Shayle talks to John Baumgartner, managing director of equity research for food and healthy living at Mizuho Securities. He explains the major factors that led to the decline—and why he’s still bullish on the long-term growth of the industry. They cover topics like:

Why the plant-based beverage category is so different from plant-based meats

Major factors in sales, including the Covid-19 bounce, flatlining household penetration, and inflation

The under-no-circumstances crowd that will not consider plant-based meats

Positive indicators for growth potential from other markets, such as Taiwan and western Europe

Improvements in taste, mouthfeel, health, and price that could reinvigorate the industry


Recommended Resources:


Mizuho Securities: Plant-Based Food Market Overview & Outlook


Good Food Institute: 2023 outlook: The state of the plant-based meat category


Deloitte: Plant-based meat gets a reality check


Catalyst is a co-production of Post Script Media and Canary Media.
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