Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023.
____
Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context:
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9
____
Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
____
Timecodes:
(00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market
(02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil
(11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices
(24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop?
(31:36) Guyana
(34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies
(49:13) The Russian Supply Question
(54:55) Price Cap
(59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil
(01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls
(01:09:02) Futures Curve
(01:15:07) Recession Risk
____
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.