In off-the-record conversations and private emails, AFL-CIO political
director Michael Podhorzer argued that the pundits focusing exclusively
on the fundamentals of the race — Biden’s approval rating and the dismal
economic indicators — were missing the bigger picture. Yes, presidents
usually lose an average of some two dozen House seats in similar
circumstances, but that wasn’t the whole story.

While many analysts argued that inflation would be more important than
the diffuse issue of democracy, Podhorzer said that was myopic. He was
much more right than wrong.

Podhorzer has now left the AFL-CIO after 25 years and is able to speak
freely. On this episode of Playbook Deep Dive, host Ryan Lizza sits down
with him in his kitchen for his first wide-ranging interview. They talk
about what everyone got wrong about 2022, his critiques of the media’s
coverage of the right, his ongoing battles with the so-called
popularists in the Democratic Party, and why Podhorzer already thinks
the presidential election of 2024 is headed for a dangerous endgame.