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How we predict elections

How we predict elections

FromPlaybook Deep Dive


How we predict elections

FromPlaybook Deep Dive

ratings:
Length:
33 minutes
Released:
Oct 14, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Scott Bland is POLITICO’s national politics editor and leading all of
POLITICO’s 2022 midterm coverage. To do it, he has a team of about 15
reporters around the country following campaigns.  

Despite the cooling temperatures, this is when people like Bland start
to sweat. 

His job is to ensure readers and listeners aren’t surprised on election
night — that POLITICO has considered and reported on all possible
outcomes, including the outliers — those black swan scenarios with
seemingly low probabilities. Not just the most likely ones, according to
conventional wisdom.

The specter of 2016 still haunts newsrooms. 

Bland and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza dissect how 2016 midterm misses
can be applied lessons for reporters covering the 2022 elections. Bland
also weighs in on pressing questions like; what are the chances of
Democrats winning the House while the Republicans take the Senate? Could
all of those allegedly flawed Trump-backed candidates sweep their races?
And could Biden be the first President since 2002 to avoid a party
defeat in the first-midterm election?

Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.
Scott Bland is the national politics editor for POLITICO.
Afra Abdullah is associate producer for POLITICO audio.
Kara Tabor is producer for POLITICO audio.
Brook Hayes is senior editor for POLITICO audio.
Adam Allington is senior producer for POLITICO audio.
Jenny Ament is executive producer for POLITICO audio.
Released:
Oct 14, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode