Data Before Drama: The Real Story Behind Recessions and Short-Term Rentals

34: Crash or Correction: Are We Repeating 2008’s Mistakes?: Home sales are starting to slump, days on market continue to climb, and price drops are becoming the new norm. Are we on the cusp of a 2008 housing market crash repeat? Or, are these eerily similar signs of a large-scale sell-off just coincidental, without much backing behind them? The On The Market Team wanted to know exactly how close we are to repeating the same mistakes from fourteen years ago, and whether or not the runup in buying activity over 2020 and 2021 could lead to a lackluster housing market for years to come.We’ve brought our entire panel of experts back on the show so we can get an up-to-date read on everything happening in today’s housing market. With fears of a recession on the horizon, buyers and sellers live in fear of what could happen next. But are these “panicky” investors looking at the full data set that Dave and the rest of the team have been able to dig up?In this episode, we’ll compare four of the m by On The Market

64 min listen

47: 80% of US Housing Is Overvalued, But Where Will Prices Drop the Most?: US housing markets have started to shift. The massive run-up in home prices eventually led us to high interest rates, high inflation, and a generation of renters who can’t afford to buy, even with price cuts. This should come as no surprise, as Moody's Analytics estimates that some eighty percent of real estate markets are overvalued. Of those markets, where are the opportunities to invest the highest as prices naturally start to decline?Instead of speculating, we brought Cris deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, onto the show to explain why this is happening, what his team is forecasting, and how investors like us can stay prepared. Cris and his team diligently look through data to predict how the housing market will move. He knows that it’ll take time for the market to finally reach equilibrium again. But, unfortunately, this may not happen any time soon.Cris’s team is focusing on looking at a by On The Market

53 min listen

48: Why Volatile Housing Markets Are Looking Attractive to Investors: Today’s housing market has a lot of people scared, and investors are worried as well. Home prices are starting to slump, inflation is hitting decade-long peaks, and interest rates have turned everyone’s cash flow cushions into break-even deals at best. Is there any respite in the wild real estate market? And why do top investors seem so excited about it? We’re back on another correspondents episode of On the Market, where Professor Dave has asked students Henry, James, and Kathy to bring in their favorite real estate market news for show-and-tell. These stories hit different aspects of the housing market, showcasing the cracks forming in the overall economy and what investors need to be prepared for to react. We talk about how home flips are being discounted across expensive coastal cities, why rent price growth is starting to stall, and how buyers got their negotiation power back.We’ll also be touching on the recent by On The Market

51 min listen

343: Is Now the Time to Buy as The Housing Market Starts to Dip? by BiggerPockets Money Podcast

59 min listen

14: The Crash Predictors Are Wrong, Here’s Why with Logan Mohtashami: The housing market is confusing, to say the least. In 2020, at the start of lockdowns, nearly everyone you spoke to had the opinion that the housing market was headed straight for a crash. Not only was this wrong, but it was the opposite of what the data was saying. While mainstream news outlets and “2008 crash bros” were painting a picture of foreclosures, price drops, and bottomed-out demand, Logan Mohtashami was singing a far different tune. Logan had been looking diligently at the data (like he does most days over at HousingWire) and he saw patterns that didn’t at all reflect the last recession. Instead, Logan predicted a runup in prices, hot buyer demand, and very low rates of foreclosures. In a time when almost everyone with a public voice was calling for an apocalyptic housing scene, Logan predicted much differently. Now, two or so years later, we can see just how right he was. We’ve brought this beloved data- by On The Market

61 min listen

114: Home Price Predictions, Affordability False Flags, and 40-Year Mortgages: Housing market forecasts, affordability false flags, forty-year mortgages, and a baby boomer shopping spree. Today, we’re touching on anything and everything affecting the housing market as the full On the Market panel joins Dave Meyer to answer YOUR most-asked questions. Dave has been collecting questions from viewers to have a rapid-fire question-answering round with some of today’s top real estate investing experts. If you want to know what will happen next in the housing market, tune in! We invited the whole crew to give their opinions on today’s investing market. We’ll talk about whether the real estate market’s “crash” is tied to stock performance, affordability and how ADUs (accessory dwelling units) may have shot home prices even higher, and the new forty-year mortgage and whether or not it’s a safe option for everyday home buyers. But, we’re also peaking into our crystal balls to give some BIG hous by On The Market

44 min listen

604: BiggerNews May: What the Media Isn't Telling You About a “Housing Crash” by BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

67 min listen

775: BiggerNews: Rent Unaffordability Crosses Dangerous New Threshold w/Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia: Rent prices have steadily risen for as long as we can remember. But, few of us would have ever expected the unimaginable rent hikes of 2020-2022. With major metros seeing double-digit year-over-year rent percentage bumps, residents were forced to throw a larger chunk of their income toward housing. Now, with higher rent prices than ever before, America has become “rent-burdened,” and a dangerous threshold has been crossed. What’s causing this rise in rents? Are investors to blame? And what’s a solution that could benefit builders, buyers, and renters? We’ve got Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia from Moody’s Commercial Real Estate division to give us their findings. Lu and Thomas’s team have been tracking rent prices carefully, logging which cities have seen the most significant price increases, which are becoming increasingly unaffordable, and what can be done about the problem. With a lack by BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

56 min listen

5 Housing Trends That Will Change The Market In 2019 | PREI 125: Will 2019 by a good time to invest in real estate — or will you be better off parking your money elsewhere, whether that means sitting on the sidelines or an investment in an entirely different industry? - by Passive Real Estate Investing

20 min listen

175: Our Lopsided Housing Supply: Why Builders Are Barely Making a Dent w/Mark Zandi: The housing market has two big problems: home prices and a lack of supply. With so few homes on the market, buyers have barely anything to choose from, and sellers remain in control. But how did we get to this point? Back in 2008, there were too many homes on the market, and we all know what happened to home prices. So how did we go from being oversupplied to undersupplied by MILLIONS of housing units so quickly? The answer is pretty simple. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, joins us again to give his take on the 2024 economy, the housing market, home prices, and our massive underbuilding problem. The last time Mark was on the show, he explained the “slowcession” that could have taken place in 2023. Instead, a roaring economy took off with low unemployment, high consumer spending, and real wealth increases for many Americans. But, as we head into 2024, there are still a couple of by On The Market

45 min listen

Investing in Real Estate: HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami on Why the Housing Market Is Blasting Off (Audio) by Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast

39 min listen

141: The “Doom Loop” That Could Crash Commercial Real Estate w/Richard Barkham: The “Doom Loop” could cause banks, businesses, and commercial real estate to crash. With real estate valuations down, property owners begin to default, and credit tightens, causing the same cycle to repeat itself again and again, pulling banks and balance sheets down until we reach a bottom. But is this “Doom Loop” scenario just feeding the fear of a housing market crash, or are we months away from this becoming our new reality? We asked Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist of CBRE, his take on what could cause a “Doom Loop” and what we should be prepared for. Richard’s team handles some of the planet’s most comprehensive commercial real estate data. When the masses run away in fear, Richard’s team sees opportunity, and if you listen to today’s episode, you’ll know exactly where the prices are too low to pass on. Richard gives his economic forecast for the next year, when the US could enter a reces by On The Market

48 min listen

67: The 8 Worst and BEST Housing Markets of 2023: What's the best housing market for real estate investing? If this were 2022, we'd say cities like Boise, Austin, or Phoenix, but things have changed, and many of last year's top real estate markets look like this year's losers. So which cities are the ones worth investing in over the next year? Which will see population, job, and home price growth? And which markets can you expect to sink even lower as interest rates rise and the threat of a recession looms?We've got a few housing market experts around to help you navigate the plethora of property markets in the United States. James Dainard, master house flipper on the west coast, has a surprising prediction on an often underrated east coast city. Jamil Damji, one of the nation's largest wholesalers, is bearish on what was once a hot market and bullish on a "unicorn" city between two cultural capitals. Kathy Fettke, the Golden State's home builder and investor, picks a fight with a fami by On The Market

56 min listen

189: The Fed’s Plan “Backfired,” Now They’re Scrambling w/Logan Mohtashami: The Fed is putting us all in danger. With high rates, low inflation, a strong job market, and millions of Americans wishing they could buy a home (but can't), we're in a strange position. Buying a home is still unaffordable even with rising wages, but the Fed won't drop rates BECAUSE of rising wages and such strong job numbers. We're in a housing market stalemate, and all of this could have been avoided if the Fed stopped counting on old data to save them. You might think that these are wild claims, but thankfully, we've got the housing market expert of housing market experts on the show, Logan Mohtashami, to make his case. Logan's team at HousingWire tracks housing market data like no one else can. They have the most up-to-date metrics and the best forecasts in the industry and were right about this housing market, and the last one, the one before that, and…you get the point. It goes without saying Logan is by On The Market

41 min listen

31: Wall Street: Huge Threat or Harmless Hedge Funds?: Home prices are a big part of the housing market. But not as big as interest rates. As the Federal Reserve sets out to “kill the economy” with rising mortgage rates, researchers like John Burns dig through the data to find out what real estate investors can do to take advantage. John isn't a beginner in the real estate space—his consulting company has been doing this type of work for two decades, providing some of the biggest real estate investors with the most up-to-date information.John isn’t optimistic about this housing market. The data he’s been collecting shows that home prices could see dramatic drops over the next couple of years and that the housing supply problem may only get worse. But, he also sees opportunities for investors that could take the place of the appreciation gains we got all too used to. John’s team participates in over nine hundred consulting studies a year, meaning if there’s one person who knows what’s h by On The Market

52 min listen

85: New Builds, Knowing Your Niche, and the 2023 Housing Boom!? by On The Market

44 min listen

62: Homebuyers Are Getting Crushed: Are Landlords the Cause?: The housing crash is always looming. If it wasn’t, how would media outlets push you to constantly stay informed, glued to the television, watching every new mortgage and inflation update? For years now, a housing market crash has been the talk of the town, with everyone from well-known news anchors to your “very informed” family members telling you that it’s only a matter of time until this house of cards comes crumbling down. But these “forecasts” aren’t as rock-solid as they may seem.This is just one of the stories we’ll touch on in this episode of On the Market, where we’re joined by our entire panel of expert guests! With the housing market in a standoff between buyers and sellers, our expert real estate investors are here to save the day, giving you the top stories that could impact your income. To start, Jamil talks about the “cancer” that’s affecting the Arizona housing market, Kathy touches on new landlord legislatio by On The Market

56 min listen

140: Buffett Bets on The Housing Market EVEN as Mortgage Rates Hit 20-Year High: Mortgage rates are ravaging the real estate market, but Warren Buffett is bullish on housing. With interest rates at twenty-year highs, almost any house is unaffordable to the everyday home buyer. And, with rising insurance costs, commercial real estate investors face HUGE policy hikes that are eating away at any leftover cash flow. But is this just the storm before the calm—have the price hikes peaked, and could we be in store for a more affordable market? All the doom and gloom can seem scary; thankfully, Dave Meyer, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke have brought their financial flashlights to make things a bit brighter. In today’s correspondents show, we’re talking about Warren Buffett’s latest move to invest in some of today’s top home builders and why “affordable” housing may be where the REAL money is made in real estate. Besides Buffett, we’ll also touch on the growing insurance crisis across the by On The Market

40 min listen

81: America is Screaming for Affordable Housing, But No One Wants to Build: The housing market has entered into a new era never measured before. As of a recent update from Moody’s Analytics, the rent-to-income ratio across the US has reached an average of 30%. And while this may not seem like a big deal to casual investors, it has wide-reaching implications that could cause the housing market to move in different directions. This is the first time a rent-to-income ratio has hit this high percentage point, which could spell bad news for landlords. Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia from Moody’s Commercial Real Estate division are joining us to explain the entire story behind the data. They have been closely monitoring the steadily rising rent prices for decades. With pandemic-fueled migration, Lu and Thomas both believe that we’re living in one of the most troubling times for renters. But how did this come to be? With massive housing development across the nation, what’s causing rents to rema by On The Market

54 min listen

Rookie Reply: 2023 Risks, The True Cost of Owning Rentals, and Live Q&A by Real Estate Rookie

48 min listen

32: Housing is Unaffordable, But Could It Actually Get Worse?: The housing market, for most people, seems like an unaffordable investment. For years, housing unaffordability was climbing, but not fast enough to keep average Americans from buying primary residences. Now, combine rising interest rates with all-time high appreciation, and the average renter can’t afford a home in most American metros. But how did this all come to be, and is there a chance that home affordability could get even lower than it stands today?We wanted to know how affordability in the United States compared to other similar countries around the world. Although most Americans would call today’s real estate market completely unaffordable, the data seems to point to something different. There are numerous real estate markets around the country boasting low home prices, high rents, and population growth to support any investment decision. But where are these markets?Dave does his best in this episode to give you a by On The Market

34 min listen

46: 2023 Housing Market Predictions: How Low Will Home Prices Go?: The 2023 housing market predictions are here. We heard you in the forums, the comments, and all over social media. We know you want Dave, the data man, to give you his take on what will happen over the next year. Will housing prices fall even more? Could interest rates hit double digits? And will our expert guests ever stop buying real estate? All of this, and more, will be answered in this week’s episode of On The Market.Unfortunately, Dave threw his crystal ball in with his laundry this week, so he’s relying solely on data to give any housing market forecasts. He, and our expert guests, will be diving deep into topics like interest rates, inflation, cap rates, and even nuclear war. We’ll touch on anything and everything that could affect the housing market so you can build wealth from a better position. We’ll also discuss the “graveyard of investment properties” and how one asset class, in particular, is about to be h by On The Market

57 min listen

145: 60% of Homes Classified as “Unaffordable,” How Long Can This Last? w/Matthew Gardner: The housing market is now aggressively out of reach for first-time home buyers. Nearly sixty percent of homes for sale are unaffordable to the average American. What’s causing such a lack of affordability? High mortgage rates, meager supply, and baby boomers refusing to sell their single-family homes (seriously). These factors have created a housing market where “forced renter households” will become the norm…but not for long. According to Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate, there’s at least some hope on the horizon. Mathew knows the solution to this almost unfathomable unaffordability issue, and it’s much simpler than most people think. In this episode, he talks about the primary driver of high home prices, the factors causing so many Americans to rent, and why we can’t repair this market using the same housing market “incentives” that worked in the past. And, as someon by On The Market

40 min listen

108: How the Pandemic Polarized America’s Property Market w/Lance Lambert: The real estate market was supposed to crash, but it didn’t. Interest rates were supposed to cause a significant slowdown, but they didn’t. Hot markets were supposed to give buyers a break as activity plummeted, but...well, you get the point. The 2023 housing market could be summed up in one word: weird. With the Federal Reserve fighting against the market, sellers refusing to move, and buyers still dealing with record-low inventory, many of us question whether or not we’re stuck in a real estate-inspired groundhog day, where 2021-2022 repeats until infinity. by On The Market

53 min listen

90: Scapegoat or Savior: Did Wall Street HELP the Housing Market?: Back in 2008, the housing market was in freefall. With foreclosures at record highs, homeowners nationwide had to return their residences to the banks. The problem? Banks didn’t want them. Big banks never wanted to be conglomerate landlords. So, who did they pass the homes off to? Institutional investors, REITs, and iBuyers that many real estate investors fear and also blame for today’s real estate problems. But is today’s affordability crisis really Wall Street’s fault, or is there someone else to blame? Back from Moody’s Analytics, we’ve got Thomas LaSalvia and Ermengarde Jabir on the show to explain the situation. Over the past few years, there has been quite a lot of bad blood between single-family rental investors and institutional investors on Wall Street. For small, mom-and-pop investors, these large landlord conglomerates seem to be stealing homes, making it harder for new investors to get into the housing mark by On The Market

48 min listen

729: The 10 Real Estate Markets Primed for Long-Term Growth in 2023: The real estate markets that have the highest populations tend to have the highest housing prices. Think of cities like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle. Just a few years ago, these bustling metros were packed to the brim with tech workers, all of which contributed to housing shortages and sky-high home prices. Now, with remote work the new norm, these big cities are seeing their populations slowly start to siphon out to more affordable housing markets in America. As an investor, you may ask yourself, “where are the most people (and money) headed?” In this episode, Dave Meyer and David Greene will answer this exact question. But, it isn’t as easy as solely looking at population growth. Dave and David go deep into the data to see where businesses, tech jobs, and high salaries are moving so you can make the best bet for future equity plays. And even though it seems like Miami, Austin, and other booming by BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

52 min listen

Unpacking Major Industry Reports and How they Will Impact the Short-term Rental Market in 2023 by STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA

36 min listen

502: BiggerNews, September: Will Anything Slow Down this Housing Market? with Dave Meyer & Kathy Fettke by BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

66 min listen

Prepare for the Biggest Housing Market Pullback in the Last 10 Years | Ken McElroy | 1295: The Art of Timing: Positioning Yourself for Real Estate Success by Epic Real Estate Investing

11 min listen

124: The Fed Just Got One More Reason to Hike Mortgage Rates: Thought we were done with mortgage rate hikes? Not so fast. The Fed always has time to get mad about something else and push interest rates even higher. This time, a surprise job report makes the Fed furious and could lead to a much more difficult housing market for investors and homebuyers. But this news isn’t all we’ve got on this episode. We’re touching on some of the biggest stories across the housing market, summing them up, and sharing them with you so you can bob and weave with the ever-changing economy. Want to invest in real estate with just a thousand bucks? If so, you’re NOT in luck because one prominent real estate crowdfunding platform has just gone bankrupt. But don’t worry; it’s not all doom and gloom. The new jobs report is painting a stellar economic picture but could lead to you having a more expensive loan. And for those that own short-term rentals, one housing market forecaster is predicting a mass sell- by On The Market

39 min listen

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Data Before Drama: The Real Story Behind Recessions and Short-Term Rentals

Data Before Drama: The Real Story Behind Recessions and Short-Term Rentals

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