As we approach the second anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, we wanted to reflect on a few questions that many Americans are asking these days: Is democracy on the brink of the collapse? Why are U.S. politics so polarized? And are we headed for another civil war? These questions seem incredibly daunting, so we wanted to understand what the data really tell us.

William Howell, a University of Chicago professor and director of the Center for Effective Government, has been thinking about these questions, along with political scientists across the country. In this episode, Howell explains why claims of another civil war are overexaggerated, and instead, offers some correctives.