29 min listen
MAN IN THE ARENA Part 7: Risky Business
MAN IN THE ARENA Part 7: Risky Business
ratings:
Length:
27 minutes
Released:
Dec 28, 2021
Format:
Podcast episode
Description
At one point during Super Bowl 51, the Pats had a .02 percent chance of winning the game.
But that game wasn’t the first time that Brady faced long odds. In fact, in a lot of his previous playoff games he’d had win probabilities in the low single digits: 7 percent, 4 percent. But Brady and the Pats kept winning, and in Super Bowl 51… they did it again.
So is Brady magic? Or do we just have the idea of probability all wrong?
This episode looks at how probability - and risk - influence how we make decisions, especially… when the odds are against us.
Because as Tom has shown us again and again and again, there is a difference between impossible and improbable...
GUESTS: Neil Paine from 538, Doug Kezerian from Daily Wager, Alessandro Bonatti, game theorist from MIT, plus two coaches from the "greatest high school football game ever played."
Thanks to ESPN and Eddy Clinton for the clips used in this episode.
But that game wasn’t the first time that Brady faced long odds. In fact, in a lot of his previous playoff games he’d had win probabilities in the low single digits: 7 percent, 4 percent. But Brady and the Pats kept winning, and in Super Bowl 51… they did it again.
So is Brady magic? Or do we just have the idea of probability all wrong?
This episode looks at how probability - and risk - influence how we make decisions, especially… when the odds are against us.
Because as Tom has shown us again and again and again, there is a difference between impossible and improbable...
GUESTS: Neil Paine from 538, Doug Kezerian from Daily Wager, Alessandro Bonatti, game theorist from MIT, plus two coaches from the "greatest high school football game ever played."
Thanks to ESPN and Eddy Clinton for the clips used in this episode.
Released:
Dec 28, 2021
Format:
Podcast episode
Titles in the series (41)
Game of Chance: Main in the Arena: Twenty years ago, a hit by Mo Lewis knocked Drew Bledsoe out of the game. Tom Brady stepped onto the field and a dynasty was born. One small moment can make a huge difference, but is there more to it than thati by In the Moment with David Greene