How Should Investors Interpret the U.S. Election Returns?

FromSimple, but Not Easy

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How Should Investors Interpret the U.S. Election Returns?

FromSimple, but Not Easy

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Length:

27 minutes

Released:

Nov 9, 2020

Format:

Podcast episode

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Click here to download the slides for this episode, or email us at simple@morningstar.com.

Released:

Nov 9, 2020

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Simple, but Not Easy is a podcast about investing and behavioral science by Morningstar Investment Management LLC. Most shows focus on our asset class research, our principled approach to managing money, or our insights on using behavioral science to help investors and advisors make better decisions.

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The Next Generation of Investors: A Conversation with Millennials: Millennials. Has a generation ever attracted so much attention from—or created so much angst within—the financial services industry? If you Google “Millennials and financial advisors” or “Millennials and investing,” you’ll find a dizzying array of surveys and published opinion pieces on the topic. And for good reason—Millennials and those that will come after them represent the future of investing and financial advice. Host Drew Carter decides to leave the surveys and data behind, and focus some interviews on real… live… Millennials, here in the studio to talk about investing and financial advice. Drew Carter asks our 4 millennials in the studio about their investing habits, their opinions on working with a financial advisor--and what specific types of financial advice they're looking for, and their approach to savings. by Simple, but Not Easy
41 min listen
Picking Stocks for the Long Run: 4 Portfolio Managers Share Their Thoughts: Four portfolio managers describe how they evaluate and select stocks for their concentrated portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy
38 min listen
Not-So-Crude Markets: Energy Infrastructure and MLPs: A chart of oil prices in the past year looks a lot like a roller coaster. And the stock prices of oil companies tend to follow oil prices higher or lower. Today's episode will discuss an energy investment that’s different in many ways from the oil companies that are household names because of their corresponding gas stations—firms like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. We'll focus on energy infrastructure and MLPs, or master limited partnerships, and how they're used in some of our portfolios. Joining Host Drew Carter is joined by George Metrou, Portfolio Manager for the Dividend Select Equity strategy here in the US, and Dan McNeela, who is co-head of our target risk strategies in the U.S. Recording date: June 24, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
45 min listen
Planting Sustainable Investing in Your Practice [Part 2]: Now that we've been given a great background on sustainable investing, Drew Carter turns our attention to how advisors and investors might go about investing in a sustainable way. Recorded on: April 5, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
34 min listen
Better Decision-Making Through Diverse Opinions, Pt. 2: Getting more women into portfolio management might seem like a no-brainer. But Marta Norton, portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, says "it’s a knotty problem because you don’t want people to have women or diversity on their team … just for the sake of having that kind of diversity. As a woman, I find it kind of insulting when people say, 'We need to have a woman here,' because then you don’t feel like you’re earning it by your own merit. And I feel very strongly that I’ve earned it by my merit, I feel that Michelle has, that Hong has. None of us want to feel like we are some sort of token by any measure, and I would imagine that most people would feel the same way. But at the same time, I like to express this as diversity of thought—if you have people all thinking the exact same way, you’re gonna have biases and your gonna make mistakes. But like Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet—a team of rivals—if you have people wi by Simple, but Not Easy
14 min listen
To Annuitize or Not: New Research by David Blanchett: Should retirees buy annuities to insure a steady stream of income? Few products are as polarizing among financial advisors than annuities, but certainly they have a place in the retirement picture for some individuals. In this episode, we look at new research by David Blanchett that may help advisors decide when a client should annuitize or not. Blanchett is head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management. by Simple, but Not Easy
26 min listen
Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing: Advisors and investors are hearing more and more about behavioral science and behavioral economics, essentially how our humanity gets in the way of rationality, and what we can do to improve our decision-making. But what about investment managers themselves? Are they naturally more rational? How can a portfolio manager avoid making behavioral errors? Host Drew Carter is joined by Dan Kemp, chief investment officer for EMEA at Morningstar Investment Management. In this episode, Drew and Dan will discuss who is susceptible to behavioral biases and Annie Duke's book, 'Thinking in Bets.' by Simple, but Not Easy
27 min listen
What Is Sustainable Investing? [Part 1]: Are you new to sustainable investing and ESG? Guests Jon Hale and Julie Koska of Morningstar Research Services explain how managers are incorporating environmental, social, and governance into investment decisions, why investors are flocking to ESG portfolios, and the effect of ESG on investment returns (which might surprise you). Drew Carter hosts. Recorded on: April 1, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
24 min listen
Sinking Treasury Yields: Our Views on the “Belly” of the Curve: Host Drew Carter discusses recent Treasury yield moves with Edward Fane, portfolio manager and head of U.S. fixed-income research at Morningstar Investment Management. They also discuss a scenario analysis Ed did that led to some portfolio implications that might be surprising, coming from a valuation-driven investor--further evidence that investing can be simple, but not easy. by Simple, but Not Easy
41 min listen
Some Like It Hot: Looking into the IPO Market: The market for initial public offerings, or IPOs, in the U.S. is hot, with household names like Lyft, Uber, and Pinterest coming to the public markets with a lot of media coverage and interest from investors. But many of these so-called unicorns who’ve achieved $1 billion valuations before they’ve gone public have never turned a profit. So, how can investors tell if these IPOs are potentially worth investing in? Host Drew Carter speaks with Ali Mogharabi, senior equity analyst at Morningstar Research Services, about the history of the IPO market, internet bubble, and 'tech unicorns.' Then, we learn from John Owens, senior portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, about the caution taken when approaching 134 firms that went public last year. Recorded on: May 14, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
43 min listen
Market Turbulence and Loss: Behaving Well When Markets Go Bad: Market losses can be upsetting. Aside from the pain of losing money, there’s something about it that just doesn’t feel right. Yet, we know that market dips, declines, and disasters are all a part of investing. So, what can investors do about them? Host Drew Carter is joined by Andrew Lill, chief investment officer, and Ryan Murphy, head of decision science, both at Morningstar Investment Management LLC, to discuss what investors can do to prepare for market declines, and how to respond when we find ourselves in the middle of an unfortunate drop in prices. by Simple, but Not Easy
48 min listen
Bringing Their "A-Game": Advisors as Behavioral Coaches: Today's episode explores what the role of financial advisors really entails. When you think about, did the role of 'behavioral coach' cross your mind? Guest Ryan Murphy, Ph.D., head of decision sciences at Morningstar, Inc. thinks it should. Host Drew Carter and Ryan Murphy discuss the responsibilities, such as behavioral coaching, that may be central to an advisor’s role, perhaps even more important than some traditional roles, like, say, building investment portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy
17 min listen
"The Largest Purchase Most Americans Will Ever Make": Researching the State of Retirement: When you save and invest, most likely your biggest financial goal is retirement, a topic that can be daunting or even frightening on both a personal level and on a macro level. Host Drew Carter discusses the state of retirement with David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, who has called retirement the "largest purchase most Americans will ever make." Today's discussion revolves around the "right" age to retire, online savings and management tools, retiring earlier than planned, and how far off people tend to be when planning for retirement, as well as if there is in fact a retirement crisis. by Simple, but Not Easy
27 min listen
A Contrarian View: Why We Prefer International Over U.S. Stocks: Developed equity markets outside the U.S. have struggled mightily for about a decade since the global financial crisis. Individually, these markets have their unique struggles, whether it’s Brexit in the U.K. or sustained economic growth and profitability in Japan. So, why would anyone want to invest in these markets, let alone prefer them to the U.S. market? Portfolio manager Gareth Lyons, who covers equity markets outside the U.S., discusses his views with host Drew Carter. by Simple, but Not Easy
17 min listen
Red Dusk: Do Post-Rally Prices Call for Russian Bearishness?: In today's episode, host Drew Carter talks with Nabil Salem, senior investment analyst at Morningstar Investment Management, about his latest research on Russian stocks that resulted in a downgrade to this "permanent contrarian" play. by Simple, but Not Easy
37 min listen
Talking Turkey: What We're Thankful for in 2019, and What We'd Be Thankful for in the Future, Pt. 1: Ryan Murphy talks about why it's good to give thanks, and how it can make us better investors. Then Brian Huckstep, Dan McNeela, Cindy Galiano, and Mike Stathakis share what investment developments they're thankful for, as well some things they would be thankful for if they came to pass. Drew Carter hosts. by Simple, but Not Easy
33 min listen
Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 1): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include Christine Benz as well as portfolio managers, sales directors, and behavioral scientists, to provide a variety of reading material ranging from investment self-service books, to environmental sustainability, as well as one 'picture book' and perhaps the only investment principles book in the fiction genre. by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Dump the Dow: Why What You Pay Attention to Matters: In this episode, John Owens and Ryan Murphy talk about why price-weighted indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be distracting to investors. John, who's a senior equity portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, explains why investors should disregard single-day Dow point drops, and also any short-term performance. Ryan, who's head of decision science at Morningstar Investment Management, shares some recent research that shows someone's risk perspective can be affected by what they pay attention to. Together, our guests discuss with host Drew Carter how discipline and nudges can help investors ignore the noise and stay focused on their financial goals. by Simple, but Not Easy
28 min listen
20 Years of 'Tipping': What Investors Can Learn From Gladwell's Classic Book: In "The Tipping Point," author Malcolm Gladwell looks at how ideas can spread like viruses. Citing psychological studies and using many examples, Gladwell shows how people, environments, and changes in an idea itself can lead to explosive growth in popularity. In this episode, Jarred Watts considers how the ideas in this book, which turned 20 years old in February, apply to investing. Watts is a client portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, where he also leads the investment team's book club. by Simple, but Not Easy
55 min listen
Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 2): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include everyone from our portfolio managers to our sales directors, as well as a glimpse into our Investment Management Book Club and an interview the Morningstar HQ librarian. by Simple, but Not Easy
52 min listen
Think Integration, not Outsourcing: The Importance of Choosing the Right Money Manager: Is "outsourcing" a dirty word? Are managed money offerings all the same? Matt Radgowski and Peter Dugery share insights on the challenges and rewards for financial advisors when choosing a money manager to handle client portfolios. Drew Carter hosts. Matt is managing director, Americas, at Morningstar Investment Management, and Peter is head of sales at the same firm. by Simple, but Not Easy
32 min listen
Outlook 2020, Pt. 1: Assessing the Aggregate Risk-for-Reward Picture: We begin our two-part conversation on our Outlook for 2020 and beyond with a look at the aggregate risk/reward landscape around the world. Host Drew Carter welcomes Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, and Tanguy de Lauzon, head of capital markets & asset allocation for EMEA. Important Disclosure: Returns for U.S. stocks are indicated by the Morningstar US Market Index; for global stocks by the Morningstar Global Markets Index; for emerging markets stocks by the Morningstar EM Index; and for Russia by the Morningstar Russia Index. by Simple, but Not Easy
22 min listen
Getting Personal: Getting to Know How Advisors Get to Know Their Clients: In today's episode, host Drew Carter gets up close and personal--into investing, that is. Getting personal might elicit nervousness, but why does it seem so antithetical to investing? We explore personalization and customization in financial practices: If you’re an investor, how well does your financial advisor know you? And advisors, how much time have you taken to get to know your clients? Joined by Morningstar Investment Management group's Matthew Radgowski, chief operating officer for the Americas, and Marta Norton, head of outcome-based strategies in the Americas, as well as Ryan Murphy, Ph.D. head of decision sciences, the conversation reviews Morningstar's belief that getting *personal* can be good for investors AND advisors—but it may be more complicated than you think. by Simple, but Not Easy
37 min listen
Markets Quiz: Test Your Knowledge!: Play along with our markets quiz, complete with drum roll special effects before we reveal correct answers! Senior portfolio manager Dan McNeela joins host Drew Carter for this special episode. We discuss some perhaps surprising market return figures, and Dan offers some insights into how to interpret market data. by Simple, but Not Easy
50 min listen
Markets in Crisis: Q1 Update and a Look Ahead: Andrew Lill, CEO, Americas, and Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, discuss the extraordinary markets in the first quarter of 2020, and share some thoughts on where they see opportunity in the days ahead. by Simple, but Not Easy
33 min listen
Theories, Crowds, Bubbles, & Bees: Daniel Needham on Contrarian Investing: Why might contrarian investing outperform, and how might an investor know when it's time to head in the opposite direction from the crowd? Daniel Needham, president and global chief investment officer, explores why markets are frequently efficient and what makes them become inefficient; explains how contrarians can act like a thermostat for markets; and explains how bees can be better decision-makers than humans at times. He also shares a checklist his team uses to help them make rational decisions that go against the crowd. Drew Carter hosts. by Simple, but Not Easy
42 min listen
Markets in Crisis: Our Long-Term, Valuation-Driven Views of Markets Today: Daniel Needham and Andrew Lill share their views on markets, the economy, and how we're dealing with the crisis brought on by the novel coronavirus. Also, Ryan Murphy on how to keep clients calm amid market declines. Needham is president and global CIO, Lill is Americas CIO, and Murphy is head of decision sciences, all at Morningstar Investment Management. by Simple, but Not Easy
19 min listen
Value Investing: Intelligent Investing Aims to Get More Than You Pay For: Too often value investing is confused with the value style, and value investors are mistakenly thought to buy only value stocks. Daniel Needham, president and chief investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management, shares his views on value investing and on the way his team uses a valuation-driven approach to multi-asset investing. After all, as Charlie Munger has famously said, “All intelligent investment is value investment because why would you want to buy something which wasn’t worth as much as you were paying for it, and who wouldn’t like buying something for less than it’s worth? by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Helping Others: 2 Financial Advisors Share the Challenges and Joys of Their Practice: Peter Dugery, head of sales at Morningstar Investment Management, leads a discussion on the environment advisors face today. His guests are Matt Unger, the founder and managing director at Focus Asset Management, an independent RIA in Dallas, and Jason Baker, co-founder and president of Baker Wealth Management in North Carolina. by Simple, but Not Easy
30 min listen
Talking Turkey: Pt. 2: In part two of our giving-thanks episode, more members of our investment team share what they're thankful for, and what they'd be thankful for if it were to happen. John Owens talks IPOs, Marta Norton is doubly thankful, Paul Arnold looks forward to greater wealth equality, and Shannon Steiner--new to the podcast--is thankful for her internship with Investment Management and discusses the findings of her study of Morningstar Investment Management's record of selecting funds over more than two decades. Drew Carter hosts. by Simple, but Not Easy
35 min listen

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U.S. Stocks: Beyond the Magnificent Seven: The Magnificent Seven continue to capture the attention of advisors and investors, dominating U.S. equity performance over the last year. Will this trend continue throughout 2024? Will growth stocks continue to beat value? What about large versus small? And what is 2023's signal about where markets are headed this year? We're delighted to be joined by John Owens, Senior Portfolio Manager for Morningstar's Select Equity Strategies, and Paul Tait, Portfolio Specialist at Morningstar Wealth. Together, they help unpack the landscape for U.S. stocks in a digestible manner. by Simple, but Not Easy
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2024 Outlook: Economy, Inflation, Best Ideas, and AI: The topics we're discussing today align with the recent release of Morningstar Wealth's 2024 Market Outlook. A recession seemed to be the consensus view entering the year, but markets love to fool the masses, and a stock market rally followed. However, the rally was not evenly distributed. Bonds, for example, remain in a multi-year drawdown, and many investors are questioning their role in a portfolio. With this as the backdrop, what actions make sense to support clients? In today's episode, we're delighted to have Morningstar Wealth's CIO of the Americas, Marta Norton, and Chief U.S. Economist, Preston Caldwell with us to dig into the outlook, share their perspectives, and, as always, be sure to address the implications on client portfolios and any suggested actions to take by Simple, but Not Easy
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AI's Role in the Future of Wealth Management, Featuring the AI Character "Morningstar Mo": A lot has already been said about the potential of artificial intelligence, or AI, but how are people actually engaging with it? And how should investors think about their AI exposure in a portfolio? Morningstar has invested heavily in generative AI, with Morningstar Mo taking the stage at our investment conference, and in a first, we're delighted to be joined by a special guest: Mo the AI character. We’ll also be joined by Adley Bowden, Head of Individual Investor and Grady Burkett, Portfolio Manager of the Hare strategy. This marks the start of a new season of Simple But Not Easy, with Nick VanDerSchie taking the mic from Jonathan Linstra, whom we thank for his fabulous insights. Together, let's turn AI speculation into real-world application. by Simple, but Not Easy
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$The Cutting Edge of Advisor Technology: Ezra Group's Craig Izkowitz: Financial technology is going through a new wave of change, with artificial intelligence – or AI – taking the world by storm. But the wealth tech space is already incredibly complex, with literally hundreds of tech providers battling for market share across the advisor workflow. So, what does Ezra Group, a prominent WealthTech consultant, have to say about this? How can we get ahead of this change? We're delighted to be joined by Craig Iskowitz, Founder of Ezra Group. Together, we’ll dig into his latest technology predictions, covering AI, integration opportunities, fractional outsourcing, and more. A key takeaway: "Meet once a year with your team and talk about your technology."$
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Risk, Downside Protection, and the Goal Mindset: Short-term worries versus long-term goals—which are guiding your investment decisions? If you’ve done your homework and you’ve given careful consideration to achieving the financial results you want, that question is easier to answer—even if it remains nerve-wracking to stay the course. Here in early 2022, we’re awash in short-term concerns once again. Between inflation, rising interest rates, and more, it’s easy to question the faith you had when the outlook was brighter. So, with that in mind for this episode, we’re focusing on how to keep your worries at bay and your eye on the ball. by Simple, but Not Easy
62 min listen
Overconfident? Cognitively Rigid? How Investors Can Make Better Decisions by Dealing With Emotions and Biases (Episode 50 Rebroadcast): "[W]e can’t avoid the reality that we’re experiencing and probably will continue to experience stress, uncertainty, and change. But the question is, how do we cope?" — Sarah Newcomb Given recent market volatility, we thought it might be helpful to revisit this episode from July 13, 2020, which features two experts on investor behavior and decision-making. Sarah Newcomb, director of behavioral science at Morningstar, Inc., discusses emotions brought on by market loss, talks about how they can affect decisions, and offers some ways to cope. Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, discusses cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions. by Simple, but Not Easy
28 min listen

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How Should Investors Interpret the U.S. Election Returns?

How Should Investors Interpret the U.S. Election Returns?

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