Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing

FromSimple, but Not Easy

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Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing

FromSimple, but Not Easy

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Length:

27 minutes

Released:

Jul 16, 2019

Format:

Podcast episode

Released:

Jul 16, 2019

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Simple, but Not Easy is a podcast about investing and behavioral science by Morningstar Investment Management LLC. Most shows focus on our asset class research, our principled approach to managing money, or our insights on using behavioral science to help investors and advisors make better decisions.

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Not-So-Crude Markets: Energy Infrastructure and MLPs: A chart of oil prices in the past year looks a lot like a roller coaster. And the stock prices of oil companies tend to follow oil prices higher or lower. Today's episode will discuss an energy investment that’s different in many ways from the oil companies that are household names because of their corresponding gas stations—firms like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. We'll focus on energy infrastructure and MLPs, or master limited partnerships, and how they're used in some of our portfolios. Joining Host Drew Carter is joined by George Metrou, Portfolio Manager for the Dividend Select Equity strategy here in the US, and Dan McNeela, who is co-head of our target risk strategies in the U.S. Recording date: June 24, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
45 min listen
"The Largest Purchase Most Americans Will Ever Make": Researching the State of Retirement: When you save and invest, most likely your biggest financial goal is retirement, a topic that can be daunting or even frightening on both a personal level and on a macro level. Host Drew Carter discusses the state of retirement with David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, who has called retirement the "largest purchase most Americans will ever make." Today's discussion revolves around the "right" age to retire, online savings and management tools, retiring earlier than planned, and how far off people tend to be when planning for retirement, as well as if there is in fact a retirement crisis. by Simple, but Not Easy
27 min listen
Some Like It Hot: Looking into the IPO Market: The market for initial public offerings, or IPOs, in the U.S. is hot, with household names like Lyft, Uber, and Pinterest coming to the public markets with a lot of media coverage and interest from investors. But many of these so-called unicorns who’ve achieved $1 billion valuations before they’ve gone public have never turned a profit. So, how can investors tell if these IPOs are potentially worth investing in? Host Drew Carter speaks with Ali Mogharabi, senior equity analyst at Morningstar Research Services, about the history of the IPO market, internet bubble, and 'tech unicorns.' Then, we learn from John Owens, senior portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, about the caution taken when approaching 134 firms that went public last year. Recorded on: May 14, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
43 min listen
Getting Personal: Getting to Know How Advisors Get to Know Their Clients: In today's episode, host Drew Carter gets up close and personal--into investing, that is. Getting personal might elicit nervousness, but why does it seem so antithetical to investing? We explore personalization and customization in financial practices: If you’re an investor, how well does your financial advisor know you? And advisors, how much time have you taken to get to know your clients? Joined by Morningstar Investment Management group's Matthew Radgowski, chief operating officer for the Americas, and Marta Norton, head of outcome-based strategies in the Americas, as well as Ryan Murphy, Ph.D. head of decision sciences, the conversation reviews Morningstar's belief that getting *personal* can be good for investors AND advisors—but it may be more complicated than you think. by Simple, but Not Easy
37 min listen
What Is Sustainable Investing? [Part 1]: Are you new to sustainable investing and ESG? Guests Jon Hale and Julie Koska of Morningstar Research Services explain how managers are incorporating environmental, social, and governance into investment decisions, why investors are flocking to ESG portfolios, and the effect of ESG on investment returns (which might surprise you). Drew Carter hosts. Recorded on: April 1, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
24 min listen
Better Decision-Making Through Diverse Opinions, Pt. 1: Getting more women into portfolio management might seem like a no-brainer. But Marta Norton, portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, says "it’s a knotty problem because you don’t want people to have women or diversity on their team … just for the sake of having that kind of diversity. As a woman, I find it kind of insulting when people say, 'We need to have a woman here,' because then you don’t feel like you’re earning it by your own merit. And I feel very strongly that I’ve earned it by my merit, I feel that Michelle has, that Hong has. None of us want to feel like we are some sort of token by any measure, and I would imagine that most people would feel the same way. But at the same time, I like to express this as diversity of thought—if you have people all thinking the exact same way, you’re gonna have biases and your gonna make mistakes. But like Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet—a team of rivals—if you have people wi by Simple, but Not Easy
30 min listen
Bringing Their "A-Game": Advisors as Behavioral Coaches: Today's episode explores what the role of financial advisors really entails. When you think about, did the role of 'behavioral coach' cross your mind? Guest Ryan Murphy, Ph.D., head of decision sciences at Morningstar, Inc. thinks it should. Host Drew Carter and Ryan Murphy discuss the responsibilities, such as behavioral coaching, that may be central to an advisor’s role, perhaps even more important than some traditional roles, like, say, building investment portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy
17 min listen
Markets Quiz: Test Your Knowledge!: Play along with our markets quiz, complete with drum roll special effects before we reveal correct answers! Senior portfolio manager Dan McNeela joins host Drew Carter for this special episode. We discuss some perhaps surprising market return figures, and Dan offers some insights into how to interpret market data. by Simple, but Not Easy
50 min listen
Talking Turkey: What We're Thankful for in 2019, and What We'd Be Thankful for in the Future, Pt. 1: Ryan Murphy talks about why it's good to give thanks, and how it can make us better investors. Then Brian Huckstep, Dan McNeela, Cindy Galiano, and Mike Stathakis share what investment developments they're thankful for, as well some things they would be thankful for if they came to pass. Drew Carter hosts. by Simple, but Not Easy
33 min listen
Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing: Advisors and investors are hearing more and more about behavioral science and behavioral economics, essentially how our humanity gets in the way of rationality, and what we can do to improve our decision-making. But what about investment managers themselves? Are they naturally more rational? How can a portfolio manager avoid making behavioral errors? Host Drew Carter is joined by Dan Kemp, chief investment officer for EMEA at Morningstar Investment Management. In this episode, Drew and Dan will discuss who is susceptible to behavioral biases and Annie Duke's book, 'Thinking in Bets.' by Simple, but Not Easy
27 min listen
Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 1): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include Christine Benz as well as portfolio managers, sales directors, and behavioral scientists, to provide a variety of reading material ranging from investment self-service books, to environmental sustainability, as well as one 'picture book' and perhaps the only investment principles book in the fiction genre. by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
A Contrarian View: Why We Prefer International Over U.S. Stocks: Developed equity markets outside the U.S. have struggled mightily for about a decade since the global financial crisis. Individually, these markets have their unique struggles, whether it’s Brexit in the U.K. or sustained economic growth and profitability in Japan. So, why would anyone want to invest in these markets, let alone prefer them to the U.S. market? Portfolio manager Gareth Lyons, who covers equity markets outside the U.S., discusses his views with host Drew Carter. by Simple, but Not Easy
17 min listen
Key Investing and Behavioral Messages for Advisor-Client Meetings: We explore why advisors might change the focus of annual meetings to progress updates with Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management. And Daniel Needham, president and global CIO, shares his thoughts on how to keep investors focused on the long term. by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Outlook 2020, Pt. 1: Assessing the Aggregate Risk-for-Reward Picture: We begin our two-part conversation on our Outlook for 2020 and beyond with a look at the aggregate risk/reward landscape around the world. Host Drew Carter welcomes Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, and Tanguy de Lauzon, head of capital markets & asset allocation for EMEA. Important Disclosure: Returns for U.S. stocks are indicated by the Morningstar US Market Index; for global stocks by the Morningstar Global Markets Index; for emerging markets stocks by the Morningstar EM Index; and for Russia by the Morningstar Russia Index. by Simple, but Not Easy
22 min listen
The Next Generation of Investors: A Conversation with Millennials: Millennials. Has a generation ever attracted so much attention from—or created so much angst within—the financial services industry? If you Google “Millennials and financial advisors” or “Millennials and investing,” you’ll find a dizzying array of surveys and published opinion pieces on the topic. And for good reason—Millennials and those that will come after them represent the future of investing and financial advice. Host Drew Carter decides to leave the surveys and data behind, and focus some interviews on real… live… Millennials, here in the studio to talk about investing and financial advice. Drew Carter asks our 4 millennials in the studio about their investing habits, their opinions on working with a financial advisor--and what specific types of financial advice they're looking for, and their approach to savings. by Simple, but Not Easy
41 min listen
Sinking Treasury Yields: Our Views on the “Belly” of the Curve: Host Drew Carter discusses recent Treasury yield moves with Edward Fane, portfolio manager and head of U.S. fixed-income research at Morningstar Investment Management. They also discuss a scenario analysis Ed did that led to some portfolio implications that might be surprising, coming from a valuation-driven investor--further evidence that investing can be simple, but not easy. by Simple, but Not Easy
41 min listen
Planting Sustainable Investing in Your Practice [Part 2]: Now that we've been given a great background on sustainable investing, Drew Carter turns our attention to how advisors and investors might go about investing in a sustainable way. Recorded on: April 5, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy
34 min listen
Contrarian Ideas: Have Lower Oil Prices Made Energy Stocks Attractive?: On September 14, 2019, Saudi Arabian oil fields were attacked, leading to a spike in oil prices. But the spike quickly subsided, with prices falling back—and even below—their pre-spike prices about two weeks later. But the phenomenon of lower oil prices is of course not new. And that’s reflected in the returns of U.S. stocks in the energy sector, which lost an average of about 5% a year over the five years ended September 30, according to S&P 500 sector index data on Morningstar Direct. The S&P 500, during that same period, rose nearly 11% annualized, while the IT sector climbed more than 18% on average each year. How does this weigh on our views of the energy sector going forward? We think energy is the most underpriced sector and, as valuation-driven investors, we therefore believe this sector may be poised for better growth than the broad market in the future. by Simple, but Not Easy
46 min listen
Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 2): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include everyone from our portfolio managers to our sales directors, as well as a glimpse into our Investment Management Book Club and an interview the Morningstar HQ librarian. by Simple, but Not Easy
52 min listen
Dump the Dow: Why What You Pay Attention to Matters: In this episode, John Owens and Ryan Murphy talk about why price-weighted indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be distracting to investors. John, who's a senior equity portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, explains why investors should disregard single-day Dow point drops, and also any short-term performance. Ryan, who's head of decision science at Morningstar Investment Management, shares some recent research that shows someone's risk perspective can be affected by what they pay attention to. Together, our guests discuss with host Drew Carter how discipline and nudges can help investors ignore the noise and stay focused on their financial goals. by Simple, but Not Easy
28 min listen
Value Investing: Intelligent Investing Aims to Get More Than You Pay For: Too often value investing is confused with the value style, and value investors are mistakenly thought to buy only value stocks. Daniel Needham, president and chief investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management, shares his views on value investing and on the way his team uses a valuation-driven approach to multi-asset investing. After all, as Charlie Munger has famously said, “All intelligent investment is value investment because why would you want to buy something which wasn’t worth as much as you were paying for it, and who wouldn’t like buying something for less than it’s worth? by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Better Decision-Making Through Diverse Opinions, Pt. 2: Getting more women into portfolio management might seem like a no-brainer. But Marta Norton, portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, says "it’s a knotty problem because you don’t want people to have women or diversity on their team … just for the sake of having that kind of diversity. As a woman, I find it kind of insulting when people say, 'We need to have a woman here,' because then you don’t feel like you’re earning it by your own merit. And I feel very strongly that I’ve earned it by my merit, I feel that Michelle has, that Hong has. None of us want to feel like we are some sort of token by any measure, and I would imagine that most people would feel the same way. But at the same time, I like to express this as diversity of thought—if you have people all thinking the exact same way, you’re gonna have biases and your gonna make mistakes. But like Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet—a team of rivals—if you have people wi by Simple, but Not Easy
14 min listen
Think Integration, not Outsourcing: The Importance of Choosing the Right Money Manager: Is "outsourcing" a dirty word? Are managed money offerings all the same? Matt Radgowski and Peter Dugery share insights on the challenges and rewards for financial advisors when choosing a money manager to handle client portfolios. Drew Carter hosts. Matt is managing director, Americas, at Morningstar Investment Management, and Peter is head of sales at the same firm. by Simple, but Not Easy
32 min listen
Investing in a Global Recession: Is This Time Different?: Global stock markets this year have gone through a dramatic sell-off and recovery in record time. Perhaps more importantly, we’ve seen a significant decline in economic activity since February, likely marking the onset of a recession. In this episode, Daniel Needham and Philip Straehl look at past recessions and compare them with the current environment. We consider what past market recoveries have looked like and discuss how our investment team is considering these lessons from the past to uncover potential long-term opportunities today. Daniel Needham is president & global CIO, and Philip Straehl is head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, at Morningstar Investment Management. by Simple, but Not Easy
38 min listen
Red Dusk: Do Post-Rally Prices Call for Russian Bearishness?: In today's episode, host Drew Carter talks with Nabil Salem, senior investment analyst at Morningstar Investment Management, about his latest research on Russian stocks that resulted in a downgrade to this "permanent contrarian" play. by Simple, but Not Easy
37 min listen
Outlook 2020 Pt. 2: Finding Opportunities When Most Markets Are Overpriced: We conclude our two-part conversation on our Outlook for 2020 and beyond with views on asset classes we view as being attractively priced. Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, and Tanguy de Lauzon, head of capital markets & asset allocation for EMEA, return to share their views. Important Disclosure: Returns for U.S. stocks are indicated by the Morningstar US Market Index. by Simple, but Not Easy
33 min listen
Picking Stocks for the Long Run: 4 Portfolio Managers Share Their Thoughts: Four portfolio managers describe how they evaluate and select stocks for their concentrated portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy
38 min listen
Advisor Profile: Kevin Schaefer Coaches Clients to Have a 'Simple Smile': Kevin Schaefer coaches clients to plan for the worst, and to be content. An obsession with money distorts smiley faces into ones with dollar-sign eyes and a squiggly mouth because it often leads to aggressive investing that's like being on a roller coaster. A smoother ride, he says, keeps "a simple smile on your face." Schaefer, a CFP and founder at Spirit West Certified Planning, LLC in Scottsdale, Arizona, says, "There aren't enough contrarians" paying attention to risks embedded in passive index-linked investments. "I'm hoping that trend (toward passive) will break and people will get back to basics." by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Markets in Crisis: What Are Potential Implications for Inflation?: Inflation has been tame for some time. But where will inflation go from here? Will the massive COVID-19-related stimulus by the Fed and the Treasury lead to higher inflation? Or will rocketing unemployment weaken inflation—in fact, is deflation a greater concern in the near term? by Simple, but Not Easy
23 min listen
Is Dollar-Cost Averaging Irrational? Compared to What?: Terry Hawkins, sales manager at Morningstar Investment Management and Paul Kaplan, research director for Morningstar Canada, discuss dollar-cost averaging, or the practice of investing slowly over time instead of in one lump sum. Research by Kaplan and others show that dollar-cost averaging might be expected to underperform a lump-sum approach. But what if it's what gets an investor into the markets? by Simple, but Not Easy
31 min listen

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U.S. Stocks: Beyond the Magnificent Seven: The Magnificent Seven continue to capture the attention of advisors and investors, dominating U.S. equity performance over the last year. Will this trend continue throughout 2024? Will growth stocks continue to beat value? What about large versus small? And what is 2023's signal about where markets are headed this year? We're delighted to be joined by John Owens, Senior Portfolio Manager for Morningstar's Select Equity Strategies, and Paul Tait, Portfolio Specialist at Morningstar Wealth. Together, they help unpack the landscape for U.S. stocks in a digestible manner. by Simple, but Not Easy
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2024 Outlook: Economy, Inflation, Best Ideas, and AI: The topics we're discussing today align with the recent release of Morningstar Wealth's 2024 Market Outlook. A recession seemed to be the consensus view entering the year, but markets love to fool the masses, and a stock market rally followed. However, the rally was not evenly distributed. Bonds, for example, remain in a multi-year drawdown, and many investors are questioning their role in a portfolio. With this as the backdrop, what actions make sense to support clients? In today's episode, we're delighted to have Morningstar Wealth's CIO of the Americas, Marta Norton, and Chief U.S. Economist, Preston Caldwell with us to dig into the outlook, share their perspectives, and, as always, be sure to address the implications on client portfolios and any suggested actions to take by Simple, but Not Easy
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The Cutting Edge of Advisor Technology: Ezra Group's Craig Izkowitz: Financial technology is going through a new wave of change, with artificial intelligence – or AI – taking the world by storm. But the wealth tech space is already incredibly complex, with literally hundreds of tech providers battling for market share across the advisor workflow. So, what does Ezra Group, a prominent WealthTech consultant, have to say about this? How can we get ahead of this change? We're delighted to be joined by Craig Iskowitz, Founder of Ezra Group. Together, we’ll dig into his latest technology predictions, covering AI, integration opportunities, fractional outsourcing, and more. A key takeaway: "Meet once a year with your team and talk about your technology." by Simple, but Not Easy
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$The Cutting Edge of Advisor Technology: Ezra Group's Craig Izkowitz: Financial technology is going through a new wave of change, with artificial intelligence – or AI – taking the world by storm. But the wealth tech space is already incredibly complex, with literally hundreds of tech providers battling for market share across the advisor workflow. So, what does Ezra Group, a prominent WealthTech consultant, have to say about this? How can we get ahead of this change? We're delighted to be joined by Craig Iskowitz, Founder of Ezra Group. Together, we’ll dig into his latest technology predictions, covering AI, integration opportunities, fractional outsourcing, and more. A key takeaway: "Meet once a year with your team and talk about your technology."$
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Key Investing and Behavioral Messages for Advisor-Client Meetings (Episode 51 Rebroadcast): In this rebroadcast of an episode from 2020, we explore why advisors might change the focus of annual meetings to progress updates with Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management. And Daniel Needham, president, shares his thoughts on how to keep investors focused on the long term. by Simple, but Not Easy
39 min listen
Risk, Downside Protection, and the Goal Mindset: Short-term worries versus long-term goals—which are guiding your investment decisions? If you’ve done your homework and you’ve given careful consideration to achieving the financial results you want, that question is easier to answer—even if it remains nerve-wracking to stay the course. Here in early 2022, we’re awash in short-term concerns once again. Between inflation, rising interest rates, and more, it’s easy to question the faith you had when the outlook was brighter. So, with that in mind for this episode, we’re focusing on how to keep your worries at bay and your eye on the ball. by Simple, but Not Easy
62 min listen
Overconfident? Cognitively Rigid? How Investors Can Make Better Decisions by Dealing With Emotions and Biases (Episode 50 Rebroadcast): "[W]e can’t avoid the reality that we’re experiencing and probably will continue to experience stress, uncertainty, and change. But the question is, how do we cope?" — Sarah Newcomb Given recent market volatility, we thought it might be helpful to revisit this episode from July 13, 2020, which features two experts on investor behavior and decision-making. Sarah Newcomb, director of behavioral science at Morningstar, Inc., discusses emotions brought on by market loss, talks about how they can affect decisions, and offers some ways to cope. Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, discusses cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions. by Simple, but Not Easy
28 min listen

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Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing

Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing

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