2024 Outlook: Economy, Inflation, Best Ideas, and AI

Thinking in Bets, and About Biases: A Deep Dive into Using Behavioral Science Techniques in Investing: Advisors and investors are hearing more and more about behavioral science and behavioral economics, essentially how our humanity gets in the way of rationality, and what we can do to improve our decision-making. But what about investment managers themselves? Are they naturally more rational? How can a portfolio manager avoid making behavioral errors? Host Drew Carter is joined by Dan Kemp, chief investment officer for EMEA at Morningstar Investment Management. In this episode, Drew and Dan will discuss who is susceptible to behavioral biases and Annie Duke's book, 'Thinking in Bets.' by Simple, but Not Easy

27 min listen

Value Investing: Intelligent Investing Aims to Get More Than You Pay For: Too often value investing is confused with the value style, and value investors are mistakenly thought to buy only value stocks. Daniel Needham, president and chief investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management, shares his views on value investing and on the way his team uses a valuation-driven approach to multi-asset investing. After all, as Charlie Munger has famously said, “All intelligent investment is value investment because why would you want to buy something which wasn’t worth as much as you were paying for it, and who wouldn’t like buying something for less than it’s worth? by Simple, but Not Easy

39 min listen

Picking Stocks for the Long Run: 4 Portfolio Managers Share Their Thoughts: Four portfolio managers describe how they evaluate and select stocks for their concentrated portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy

38 min listen

Market Turbulence and Loss: Behaving Well When Markets Go Bad: Market losses can be upsetting. Aside from the pain of losing money, there’s something about it that just doesn’t feel right. Yet, we know that market dips, declines, and disasters are all a part of investing. So, what can investors do about them? Host Drew Carter is joined by Andrew Lill, chief investment officer, and Ryan Murphy, head of decision science, both at Morningstar Investment Management LLC, to discuss what investors can do to prepare for market declines, and how to respond when we find ourselves in the middle of an unfortunate drop in prices. by Simple, but Not Easy

48 min listen

Talking Turkey: What We're Thankful for in 2019, and What We'd Be Thankful for in the Future, Pt. 1: Ryan Murphy talks about why it's good to give thanks, and how it can make us better investors. Then Brian Huckstep, Dan McNeela, Cindy Galiano, and Mike Stathakis share what investment developments they're thankful for, as well some things they would be thankful for if they came to pass. Drew Carter hosts. by Simple, but Not Easy

33 min listen

Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 2): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include everyone from our portfolio managers to our sales directors, as well as a glimpse into our Investment Management Book Club and an interview the Morningstar HQ librarian. by Simple, but Not Easy

52 min listen

The Next Generation of Investors: A Conversation with Millennials: Millennials. Has a generation ever attracted so much attention from—or created so much angst within—the financial services industry? If you Google “Millennials and financial advisors” or “Millennials and investing,” you’ll find a dizzying array of surveys and published opinion pieces on the topic. And for good reason—Millennials and those that will come after them represent the future of investing and financial advice. Host Drew Carter decides to leave the surveys and data behind, and focus some interviews on real… live… Millennials, here in the studio to talk about investing and financial advice. Drew Carter asks our 4 millennials in the studio about their investing habits, their opinions on working with a financial advisor--and what specific types of financial advice they're looking for, and their approach to savings. by Simple, but Not Easy

41 min listen

What Is Sustainable Investing? [Part 1]: Are you new to sustainable investing and ESG? Guests Jon Hale and Julie Koska of Morningstar Research Services explain how managers are incorporating environmental, social, and governance into investment decisions, why investors are flocking to ESG portfolios, and the effect of ESG on investment returns (which might surprise you). Drew Carter hosts. Recorded on: April 1, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy

24 min listen

Sinking Treasury Yields: Our Views on the “Belly” of the Curve: Host Drew Carter discusses recent Treasury yield moves with Edward Fane, portfolio manager and head of U.S. fixed-income research at Morningstar Investment Management. They also discuss a scenario analysis Ed did that led to some portfolio implications that might be surprising, coming from a valuation-driven investor--further evidence that investing can be simple, but not easy. by Simple, but Not Easy

41 min listen

Getting Personal: Getting to Know How Advisors Get to Know Their Clients: In today's episode, host Drew Carter gets up close and personal--into investing, that is. Getting personal might elicit nervousness, but why does it seem so antithetical to investing? We explore personalization and customization in financial practices: If you’re an investor, how well does your financial advisor know you? And advisors, how much time have you taken to get to know your clients? Joined by Morningstar Investment Management group's Matthew Radgowski, chief operating officer for the Americas, and Marta Norton, head of outcome-based strategies in the Americas, as well as Ryan Murphy, Ph.D. head of decision sciences, the conversation reviews Morningstar's belief that getting *personal* can be good for investors AND advisors—but it may be more complicated than you think. by Simple, but Not Easy

37 min listen

Not-So-Crude Markets: Energy Infrastructure and MLPs: A chart of oil prices in the past year looks a lot like a roller coaster. And the stock prices of oil companies tend to follow oil prices higher or lower. Today's episode will discuss an energy investment that’s different in many ways from the oil companies that are household names because of their corresponding gas stations—firms like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. We'll focus on energy infrastructure and MLPs, or master limited partnerships, and how they're used in some of our portfolios. Joining Host Drew Carter is joined by George Metrou, Portfolio Manager for the Dividend Select Equity strategy here in the US, and Dan McNeela, who is co-head of our target risk strategies in the U.S. Recording date: June 24, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy

45 min listen

Is Dollar-Cost Averaging Irrational? Compared to What?: Terry Hawkins, sales manager at Morningstar Investment Management and Paul Kaplan, research director for Morningstar Canada, discuss dollar-cost averaging, or the practice of investing slowly over time instead of in one lump sum. Research by Kaplan and others show that dollar-cost averaging might be expected to underperform a lump-sum approach. But what if it's what gets an investor into the markets? by Simple, but Not Easy

31 min listen

Planting Sustainable Investing in Your Practice [Part 2]: Now that we've been given a great background on sustainable investing, Drew Carter turns our attention to how advisors and investors might go about investing in a sustainable way. Recorded on: April 5, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy

34 min listen

Bringing Their "A-Game": Advisors as Behavioral Coaches: Today's episode explores what the role of financial advisors really entails. When you think about, did the role of 'behavioral coach' cross your mind? Guest Ryan Murphy, Ph.D., head of decision sciences at Morningstar, Inc. thinks it should. Host Drew Carter and Ryan Murphy discuss the responsibilities, such as behavioral coaching, that may be central to an advisor’s role, perhaps even more important than some traditional roles, like, say, building investment portfolios. by Simple, but Not Easy

17 min listen

"The Largest Purchase Most Americans Will Ever Make": Researching the State of Retirement: When you save and invest, most likely your biggest financial goal is retirement, a topic that can be daunting or even frightening on both a personal level and on a macro level. Host Drew Carter discusses the state of retirement with David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, who has called retirement the "largest purchase most Americans will ever make." Today's discussion revolves around the "right" age to retire, online savings and management tools, retiring earlier than planned, and how far off people tend to be when planning for retirement, as well as if there is in fact a retirement crisis. by Simple, but Not Easy

27 min listen

A Contrarian View: Why We Prefer International Over U.S. Stocks: Developed equity markets outside the U.S. have struggled mightily for about a decade since the global financial crisis. Individually, these markets have their unique struggles, whether it’s Brexit in the U.K. or sustained economic growth and profitability in Japan. So, why would anyone want to invest in these markets, let alone prefer them to the U.S. market? Portfolio manager Gareth Lyons, who covers equity markets outside the U.S., discusses his views with host Drew Carter. by Simple, but Not Easy

17 min listen

Red Dusk: Do Post-Rally Prices Call for Russian Bearishness?: In today's episode, host Drew Carter talks with Nabil Salem, senior investment analyst at Morningstar Investment Management, about his latest research on Russian stocks that resulted in a downgrade to this "permanent contrarian" play. by Simple, but Not Easy

37 min listen

Outlook 2020 Pt. 2: Finding Opportunities When Most Markets Are Overpriced: We conclude our two-part conversation on our Outlook for 2020 and beyond with views on asset classes we view as being attractively priced. Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, and Tanguy de Lauzon, head of capital markets & asset allocation for EMEA, return to share their views. Important Disclosure: Returns for U.S. stocks are indicated by the Morningstar US Market Index. by Simple, but Not Easy

33 min listen

‘Essential Businesses’: Managing Focused Stock Portfolios in a COVID-19 World: Our equity portfolio managers talk about how they're navigating the COVID-19 crisis and their outlook. by Simple, but Not Easy

33 min listen

Contrarian Ideas: Have Lower Oil Prices Made Energy Stocks Attractive?: On September 14, 2019, Saudi Arabian oil fields were attacked, leading to a spike in oil prices. But the spike quickly subsided, with prices falling back—and even below—their pre-spike prices about two weeks later. But the phenomenon of lower oil prices is of course not new. And that’s reflected in the returns of U.S. stocks in the energy sector, which lost an average of about 5% a year over the five years ended September 30, according to S&P 500 sector index data on Morningstar Direct. The S&P 500, during that same period, rose nearly 11% annualized, while the IT sector climbed more than 18% on average each year. How does this weigh on our views of the energy sector going forward? We think energy is the most underpriced sector and, as valuation-driven investors, we therefore believe this sector may be poised for better growth than the broad market in the future. by Simple, but Not Easy

46 min listen

Our Back-to-School Reading List (Part 1): While host Drew Carter is on sabbatical, producer Sammie Spector guest hosts a two-part series on top reading recommendations from Morningstar employees. Guests include Christine Benz as well as portfolio managers, sales directors, and behavioral scientists, to provide a variety of reading material ranging from investment self-service books, to environmental sustainability, as well as one 'picture book' and perhaps the only investment principles book in the fiction genre. by Simple, but Not Easy

39 min listen

Better Decision-Making Through Diverse Opinions, Pt. 1: Getting more women into portfolio management might seem like a no-brainer. But Marta Norton, portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, says "it’s a knotty problem because you don’t want people to have women or diversity on their team … just for the sake of having that kind of diversity. As a woman, I find it kind of insulting when people say, 'We need to have a woman here,' because then you don’t feel like you’re earning it by your own merit. And I feel very strongly that I’ve earned it by my merit, I feel that Michelle has, that Hong has. None of us want to feel like we are some sort of token by any measure, and I would imagine that most people would feel the same way. But at the same time, I like to express this as diversity of thought—if you have people all thinking the exact same way, you’re gonna have biases and your gonna make mistakes. But like Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet—a team of rivals—if you have people wi by Simple, but Not Easy

30 min listen

Some Like It Hot: Looking into the IPO Market: The market for initial public offerings, or IPOs, in the U.S. is hot, with household names like Lyft, Uber, and Pinterest coming to the public markets with a lot of media coverage and interest from investors. But many of these so-called unicorns who’ve achieved $1 billion valuations before they’ve gone public have never turned a profit. So, how can investors tell if these IPOs are potentially worth investing in? Host Drew Carter speaks with Ali Mogharabi, senior equity analyst at Morningstar Research Services, about the history of the IPO market, internet bubble, and 'tech unicorns.' Then, we learn from John Owens, senior portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, about the caution taken when approaching 134 firms that went public last year. Recorded on: May 14, 2019 by Simple, but Not Easy

43 min listen

Outlook 2020, Pt. 1: Assessing the Aggregate Risk-for-Reward Picture: We begin our two-part conversation on our Outlook for 2020 and beyond with a look at the aggregate risk/reward landscape around the world. Host Drew Carter welcomes Philip Straehl, head of capital markets & asset allocation, Americas, and Tanguy de Lauzon, head of capital markets & asset allocation for EMEA. Important Disclosure: Returns for U.S. stocks are indicated by the Morningstar US Market Index; for global stocks by the Morningstar Global Markets Index; for emerging markets stocks by the Morningstar EM Index; and for Russia by the Morningstar Russia Index. by Simple, but Not Easy

22 min listen

Does ESG Investing Lead to Weaker Returns?: Paul Arnold, portfolio manager of the ESG Asset Allocation series, discusses the growing interest in sustainable investing, as well as his approach to managing portfolios with the dual goal of seeking to do good without giving up returns. See Episode Notes below for a link to the slides mentioned in this episode, or email us at simple@morningstar.com by Simple, but Not Easy

27 min listen

Markets in Crisis: What’s Important to Remember During Trying Times?: We continue our series of episodes based on webcasts, with this week looking at what messages advisors might share with clients to help them understand how today's market environment may affect their long-term financial goals. Guests are Morningstar Investment Management president and CIO Daniel Needham and head of decision sciences Ryan Murphy. by Simple, but Not Easy

29 min listen

20 Years of 'Tipping': What Investors Can Learn From Gladwell's Classic Book: In "The Tipping Point," author Malcolm Gladwell looks at how ideas can spread like viruses. Citing psychological studies and using many examples, Gladwell shows how people, environments, and changes in an idea itself can lead to explosive growth in popularity. In this episode, Jarred Watts considers how the ideas in this book, which turned 20 years old in February, apply to investing. Watts is a client portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, where he also leads the investment team's book club. by Simple, but Not Easy

55 min listen

Better Decision-Making Through Diverse Opinions, Pt. 2: Getting more women into portfolio management might seem like a no-brainer. But Marta Norton, portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, says "it’s a knotty problem because you don’t want people to have women or diversity on their team … just for the sake of having that kind of diversity. As a woman, I find it kind of insulting when people say, 'We need to have a woman here,' because then you don’t feel like you’re earning it by your own merit. And I feel very strongly that I’ve earned it by my merit, I feel that Michelle has, that Hong has. None of us want to feel like we are some sort of token by any measure, and I would imagine that most people would feel the same way. But at the same time, I like to express this as diversity of thought—if you have people all thinking the exact same way, you’re gonna have biases and your gonna make mistakes. But like Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet—a team of rivals—if you have people wi by Simple, but Not Easy

14 min listen

Markets in Crisis: What Are Potential Implications for Inflation?: Inflation has been tame for some time. But where will inflation go from here? Will the massive COVID-19-related stimulus by the Fed and the Treasury lead to higher inflation? Or will rocketing unemployment weaken inflation—in fact, is deflation a greater concern in the near term? by Simple, but Not Easy

23 min listen

Markets in Crisis: Finding Income in Today's Markets: Income investors might despair in today's COVID-19-ravaged environment—the Federal Reserve has lowered cash rates to near zero, shuttered businesses can’t pay stock dividends, and defaults are expected to rise. Yet, our income-focused portfolio managers say their prospects for income have improved greatly since February. Marta Norton, head of outcome-based strategies, and Hong Cheng, associate portfolio manager, share where they see income opportunities in today's markets. by Simple, but Not Easy

35 min listen

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2024 Outlook: Economy, Inflation, Best Ideas, and AI

2024 Outlook: Economy, Inflation, Best Ideas, and AI

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