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S1E9 A Mathematician Uses Non Ergodic Returns to Destroy The Hopes and Dreams of Naive Index Fund Investors

S1E9 A Mathematician Uses Non Ergodic Returns to Destroy The Hopes and Dreams of Naive Index Fund Investors

FromThe Behavioral Investor


S1E9 A Mathematician Uses Non Ergodic Returns to Destroy The Hopes and Dreams of Naive Index Fund Investors

FromThe Behavioral Investor

ratings:
Length:
79 minutes
Released:
Dec 10, 2020
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Today's guest is Leigh Caldwell, partner at Irrational Agency (https://www.irrationalagency.com) and author of The Psychology of Price (http://amzn.to/leighbook). He began a mathematics degree from age 14 and is therefore the perfect man to check Ben's compounding spreadsheet discussed in Episode 1. Not only do we discuss his book and the exponential function but also an economy simulator that he has programmed called Euristica (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9FKsLf96U). We managed to get him on record registering an interest in using this tool to model different personal finance and investing behaviors across a population, so keep an eye on his future work. Considering these aspects and his blog about cognitive economics (http://www.knowingandmaking.com), Leigh is a very useful guest to have in completing this first season of The Behavioral Investor. Links to some items discussed in the episode are found below.

The Compound sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0IDctrpzyLjFFjYqTiPXZuSTwYFJdK-QZQ3AG859Dw/edit?usp=sharing
Episodic future thinking paper mentioned by Wil: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0214397
The Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment
Mental accounting: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mentalaccounting.asp
On rabbits and compounding: https://pawleysblog.com/2012/09/26/the-rabbit-effect-on-your-portfolio-compounding-and-the-time-value-of-money/
Sand and the chessboard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
Family Fortunes book: https://amzn.to/3lFIrD4
Trump would be richer if he invested his inheritance in an index fund: https://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/

...or would he? Maybe he knows about non-ergodic returns ;-)

Leigh can be found here: 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/leighblue
Blog: http://www.knowingandmaking.com
FIrm: https://www.irrationalagency.com
Book: http://amzn.to/leighbook
TEDx talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9FKsLf96U


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Released:
Dec 10, 2020
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (27)

We solve the mathematical problem of causing an enormous increase in one's bank account balance through human effort. The podcast therefore has two themes, mathematics and human behaviour. Together, behavioural investing. We take a first principles approach by summarising scientific studies and interviewing psychology and mathematics researchers. This will show us the first principles. We will then reason from these first principles to the best strategy to cause optimal human investing behaviour.