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    Ep. 72: The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

    Ep. 72: The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

    FromNonProphets

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    Ep. 72: The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

    FromNonProphets

    ratings:
    Length:
    20 minutes
    Released:
    Mar 15, 2019
    Format:
    Podcast episode

    Description

    Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common conspiracies are in real life (14:05); his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo (20:48); how he researches his books (25:10); the Middle East's prospects (27:16); what other authors have influenced his style (35:58); and what his fans are like (45:54). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/1/2019)
    Released:
    Mar 15, 2019
    Format:
    Podcast episode

    Titles in the series (49)

    NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)