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Ep. 57: Everything's on the Table (Scenarios!)

Ep. 57: Everything's on the Table (Scenarios!)

FromNonProphets


Ep. 57: Everything's on the Table (Scenarios!)

FromNonProphets

ratings:
Length:
20 minutes
Released:
May 7, 2018
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunification (4:07), Hungary (Hungaria?) making arrests in a George Soros conspiracy (7:53), Macron discussing Trump's soft hands (13:33), with a diversion into Comey's book (14:26) and the attractiveness of Helen of Troy (16:56), the special counsel indicting Trump (18:23), Trump deciding to just come clean (23:58), and whether Jeff Sessions might destroy the only copy of the Wu-Tang Clan's "Once Upon A Time in Shaolin" (27:08). Things then get full-on Trump-oriented, with a discussion of the plausibility of us learning more about Trump's penis's appearance (31:47) or nickname (33:04), whether he has an illegitimate child (34:59), Giuliani being appointed to investigate Hillary Clinton (38:24), April unemployment numbers and the overall health of the economy (OBE-ish!) (39:15), and leaked tax returns and Trump's personal wealth (40:37). We closed with a discussion of scenarios involving an FBI raid to seize thousands of penises (42:14), and a Boehner/Snoop team-up on SNL (43:32): As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/23/2018)
Released:
May 7, 2018
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (49)

NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)