The Global Climate Crisis: What To Do About It

By William D. Fletcher and Craig B. Smith

Reaching Net Zero: What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis addresses the imminent need to fully understand the causes, effects, and evidence of global warming due to the large amount of climate disinformation and complexity of much of the available valid science. In this second edition, the authors broaden the understanding of global warming, bring new findings to light, and report on successes and failures when dealing with this global crisis. This book addresses the science of global warming in a concise, readable manner while providing an in-depth reference for readers who want more details or to study the sources of information. New topics will be covered in this second edition, such as the evolving role of hydrogen as a substitute for natural gas in transportation and industrial applications. In addition, a plan based on established and economically feasible current technology will be presented to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

• Provides a broad understanding of global warming and climate change, with easily understandable language, tables, and charts • Presents a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that is based on currently available technology that is well-established and economic • Discusses practical actions that need to be taken and past successes and failures to understand the complexity of addressing global warming • Offers a practical plan with recommendations covering the technical, economic, and public policy issues involved

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Feb 27, 2024
• ISBN: 9780443273230

William D. Fletcher

Bill Fletcher retired as a Senior Vice President at Rockwell International Corporation responsible for corporate R&D and business planning. Most of his career involved business planning and international operations for large companies. He served as an officer and engineer in the navy working on the design and operation of nuclear powered ships, and was an engineer involved with the design and construction of commercial nuclear power plants. Later, he focused on industrial development and automation. His international experience includes an assignment in Saudi Arabia planning the large Jubail industrial development project on the Persian Gulf, with additional expatriate assignments in Asia, Europe, Africa, and Canada.

Book preview

The Global Climate Crisis

What To Do About It

Second Edition

William D. Fletcher

Craig B. Smith

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Photos

List of Textboxes and Special Reports

Preface: Why read this book?

Acknowledgments

Acronyms

Chapter 1. Introduction

Highlights

Introduction

Should we be concerned about global warming?

What about solar radiation?

The greenhouse effect

What are the greenhouse gases?

What are the signs of global warming?

What are the dangers of global warming?

Can anything be done about global warming? See Textbox 1.1

Chapter 2. Dealing with global warming

Highlights

What is the challenge?

Latency is a huge problem

Global warming is not obvious to the vast majority of people

The global economy is powered by fossil fuels

There is a need for unprecedented and perhaps unachievable international cooperation

All of us will have to be willing to accept changes

What can be done?

Part One

Chapter 3. The earth as a system

Highlights

Incident solar radiation

Milankovitch cycles

More about the greenhouse effect

Carbon cycle

Temperature increase—land and sea

Chapter 4. Fundamental drivers of global warming

Highlights

Global population rising

Inequities: The early role of the United States and United Kingdom

The pivotal position of the United States

Need to consider both absolute and per capita emissions

GDP growth and energy use are related

More energy will be required by developing countries

Findings

Chapter 5. Evidence for a warming planet

Highlights

Global warming is not a new idea

Earth's temperature is rising

Ocean temperatures are rising

CO2 emissions are rising

Correlation of increasing global temperature with increasing atmospheric CO2

Sea levels are rising

Ocean acidification is occurring

A message from the Arctic?

Greenland, polar ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers

Greenland and polar ice

Glaciers

Permafrost is melting

Extreme weather events are increasing

Deserts and tropics are expanding

Rising temperatures are causing plant, animal, and human migration

Methane emissions

Watching the evidence

Chapter 6. How do we know greenhouse gases are the issue?

Highlights

Where do greenhouse gases come from?

What happens to CO2 emissions?

The significance of carbon 14

Historic emissions since the Industrial Revolution

Increases in atmospheric CO2 correlate with fossil fuel use

What is your carbon footprint?

Chapter 7. What are the effects of global warming?

Highlights

Latency—How long before effects show up?

Climate change versus weather

Earth's temperature will continue to rise

Air pollution will increase

Sea level rise causes flooding

Oceans becoming warmer and more acidic

Glaciers, icecaps, and sea ice melt

Subsidence occurs and permafrost melts

Deserts and tropics expand

Rising temperatures are causing species extinction and migration

Extreme weather events are more frequent and severe

Droughts and wildfires are increasing

There are impacts on agriculture

Deforestation

Public health problems are increasing

Global warming could cause a financial crisis

National security implications

Tipping points: Unanticipated changes can occur

What can we say for sure?

Chapter 8. International efforts to address global warming

Highlights

Early efforts

History of IPCC global warming objectives

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC reports

The Paris Agreement

United Nations emission gap reports

UN Conferences of Parties

The UN Secretary-General's observations at COP27

How is the world doing?

The big three: Plans to reach net zero (China, United States, India)

Outlook for other major emitters (Japan, Germany, Russia)

Part Two

Chapter 9. What would it take to stop global warming?

Highlights

Doing nothing is not an option

Are we too late already?

Can we stop global warming?

What would it take?

Effect of Nationally Determined Contributions

What are the intergovernmental panel on climate change scenarios?

Carbon capture

What will happen if we do nothing?

The high cost of doing nothing

Chapter 10. Energy alternatives

Highlights

Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, natural gas, and biofuels

Nuclear power

Renewable energy

Energy storage

Efficiency improvements

Transportation

Hydrogen

Converting CO2 into useable liquid fuels

Fusion

Smart grids

The micro grid

Chapter 11. Why is global warming such a difficult problem to solve?

Highlights

The problem is much more difficult

The need for unprecedented, perhaps unachievable, global cooperation

Lessons from past successes need to be considered

The National Highway System

The Apollo program

The channel tunnel

Fossil fuels are heavily subsidized

There has been a systematic campaign of misinformation

Climate change deniers

Understanding climate change skepticism

Global warming has not been a media priority

Public uncertainty and education

A positive message is needed

Public support for government action

Why it is hard to replace fossil fuels?

Recognizing political leaders can make mistakes

Acknowledging that failure is a possibility

Chapter 12. Some successes and failures

Highlights

The Permian Basin, a renewable energy powerhouse

1970s oil price hikes

Automobile emissions

Hole in the ozone layer

Cigarette smoking and cancer

Europe's push for diesel vehicles

Nuclear power in the United States

Ethanol

California high-speed rail

Lessons learned

Part Three

Chapter 13. Action plan: Efficiency, power, transportation, and land use

Highlights

An action plan, recognizing we can't get to net zero by 2050

Action plan summary

Do we need another moon shot?

The challenges of a global approach

Critical need to improve electric grid reliability

What does En-ROADS show?

Game changers

Can the IPCC goal of keeping global warming under 2°C be met?

Why can't we do better?

Improve carbon sequestration

Silver bullets

Mitigation

Financial measures: cap and trade and carbon fee

Chapter 14. Can it be done?

Highlights

The trend is our friend

Can solar energy power the world?

Can wind power the world?

What would it cost?

Can we afford it?

Fossil fuel subsidies

Chapter 15. The way forward

Highlights

The future can be bright

Need for a smooth transition

Top priorities

Government actions

Actions for concerned citizens

Actions for industry

What next?

Afterword

Further reading

Useful reports

Useful websites

Appendices

Index

Copyright

Elsevier

Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands

125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AS, United Kingdom

50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States

Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.

This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

Notices

Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

ISBN: 978-0-443-27322-3

For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Candice Janco

Acquisitions Editor: Jessica Mack

Editorial Project Manager: Himani Dwivedi

Production Project Manager: Sruthi Satheesh

Cover Designer: Mark Rogers

Typeset by TNQ Technologies

List of Figures

Figure 2.1 An example of latency. 12

Figure 3.1 Solar energy sources and sinks. 20

Figure 3.2 CO2 and the earth's temperature gradually change in tandem. 22

Figure 3.3 Correlation of recent temperature anomaly with CO2 rise. 24

Figure 3.4 The carbon cycle diagram. 25

Figure 3.5 What would a gigametric ton look like? 26

Figure 3.6 Visualizing big numbers. 27

Figure 3.7 Rise in global average temperature. 27

Figure 4.1 Population growth and global energy demand. 30

Figure 4.2 US greenhouse gas emissions. 31

Figure 4.3 US global greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector (2021). 32

Figure 4.4 Global GDP and CO2 per capita. 34

Figure 4.5 Three countries plus the EU accounted for over half of CO2 emissions. 35

Figure 5.1 Global average (combined land and ocean) temperature. 38

Figure 5.2 Global average (combined land and ocean) temperature projections. 39

Figure 5.3 (A) Average global sea surface temperature. (B) Ocean surface temperatures at record highs. 41

Figure 5.4 CO2 concentration in atmosphere, 2019–23. 42

Figure 5.5 Average sea level rise. 44

Figure 5.6 CO2 and ocean pH at Mauna Loa, HI. 45

Figure 5.7 Greenland ice melt. 47

Figure 5.8 Antarctic ice melt. 48

Figure 5.9 Arctic sea ice September minima. 50

Figure 5.10 (A) Arctic sea ice, 1979. (B) Arctic sea ice, 2022. 51

Figure 5.11 The Columbia Glacier, Alaska. Left, 2009. Right, 2015. 53

Figure 6.1 Global CO2eq gas components. 66

Figure 6.2 Global CO2 emissions by world region, 2022 (total is 37.9 Gmt). 67

Figure 6.3 Where do emissions go? 68

Figure 6.4 Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. 71

Figure 8.1 Estimated gap between NDCs and IPCC goals for 1.5 and 2.0°C. 112

Figure 8.2 Trend in global CO2 emissions, 2015–2022. 114

Figure 9.1 Global emissions of CO2eq in 2022. 128

Figure 9.2 Temperature for SSP-based scenarios over the 21st century and C1-C8 at 2100. 135

Figure 9.3 CO2 emissions for SSP-based scenarios and C1-C8 categories. 136

Figure 10.1 Global energy consumption by fuel. 144

Figure 10.2 Global energy consumption by sector. 145

Figure 10.3 The biofuels life cycle. 150

Figure 10.4 Mismatch between solar power supply and demand. 155

Figure 10.5 (A) LCOE solar power. (B) LCOE wind power. 159

Figure 10.6 Trends in wind turbine design. 161

Figure 11.1 US public policy priorities 2023. 193

Figure 12.1 World oil consumption per capita. 203

Figure 13.1 Impact of the action plan on business as usual. 218

Figure 13.2 CO2 emissions declined relative to GDP due to higher efficiency. 220

Figure 13.3A Refrigerators. 220

Figure 13.3B LED lamps. 221

Figure 13.3C Buildings. 221

Figure 13.4 The process of photosynthesis. 239

Figure 13.5 Estimated cost of seawall construction in the United States, through 2040. 243

Figure 13.6 Sample run of En-ROADS. 252

Figure 13.7 En-ROADS output graph showing results at 2050. 255

List of Tables

Table 4.1 Absolute and per capita greenhouse gas emissions (2021). 33

Table 6.1 Greenhouse gas sources. 65

Table 9.1 Estimated global warming by 2100 for different IPCC global warming alternatives and projections. 133

Table 10.1 Fossil fuel types. 146

Table 10.2 Biofuels compared to fossil fuels energy content. 151

Table 10.3 Renewable fuels alternatives. 156

Table 10.4 Annual energy intensity rate of decline. 178

Table 13.1 Action plan summary. 229

Table 13.2 Impact of Action Plan on year carbon budget is exceeded. 236

Table 13.3 Effect of $US 50 per ton of CO2 carbon fee on fuels. 248

Table 13.4 En-ROADS input data. 254

Table 14.1 Levelized cost of utility-scale energy generation by source. 259

Table 14.2 Electricity output from 1 m² solar panel. 261

Table 14.3 Electrical output from 4 MW wind turbine. 262

Table 14.4 Solar and wind power costs, including storage. 264

Table 14.5 Estimated fossil fuel subsidies. 265

List of Photos

Photo 1.1 Coal-burning power plant, Iowa. 4

Photo 1.2 Mauna Loa Observatory, NOAA. 5

Photo 2.1 Wind generating farm, Desert Hot Springs, California. 14

Photo 5.1 Polar Bear on Sea Ice, Svalbard Island, Norway. 48

Photo 5.2 Sinai Desert, Egypt. 56

Photo 6.1 Clearing tropical forests. 64

Photo 7.1 Flooding in Newport Beach, California. 82

Photo 7.2 Hubbard Glacier, Alaska. 84

Photo 7.3 Live Joshua Trees, Joshua Tree National Park. 87

Photo 7.4 Dying Joshua Trees, Joshua Tree National Park. 88

Photo 7.5 Rural Ethiopian Village. 98

Photo 10.1 Offshore oil platform, Gulf of Mexico. 148

Photo 10.2 Low water level in the Colorado River. 157

Photo 10.3 Microgrid, Borrego Springs, California. 172

Photo 12.1 Great plains cornfield. 211

Photo 13.1 Subsistence farm in Ethiopia. 226

Photo 14.1 Solar and wind farms, North Palm Springs, California. 258

List of Textboxes and Special Reports

Textboxes

Textbox 1.1 Key points of this book. 7

Textbox 2.1 Five things that must be done. 14

Textbox 3.1 About those pesky international units. 19

Textbox 3.2 Define GmtC. 25

Textbox 3.3 Main points of this chapter. 28

Textbox 4.1 What can we expect? 35

Textbox 5.1 Five things to watch. 59

Textbox 6.1 What is an isotope? 69

Textbox 6.2 How much CO2 results from producing 1.0 GJ of energy? 72

Textbox 7.1 What is methane (CH4)? 77

Textbox 7.2 Timing is everything... 81

Textbox 7.3 Protecting permafrost. 85

Textbox 7.4 U.S. annual wildfires data. 93

Textbox 7.5 Top wild fire areas in world, 2020. 94

Textbox 7.6 What is the Cerrado? 97

Textbox 7.7 Tipping points to watch. 101

Textbox 8.1 Recent IPCC reports. 109

Textbox 8.2 The Group of 20 (G20). 111

Textbox 8.3 What is climate action tracker? 116

Textbox 9.1 What is net zero? 131

Textbox 9.2 IPCC climate scenarios. 137

Textbox 9.3 Life on a hot planet. 139

Textbox 10.1 Coal gets a new lease on life. 147

Textbox 10.2 Typical energy efficiency improvement opportunities. 165

Textbox 11.1 Major oil companies testify about climate disinformation. 187

Textbox 12.1 What is Ozone? 205

Textbox 12.2 Why add ethanol to gasoline? Does it reduce greenhouse gas emissions? 210

Textbox 12.3 Key points for success. 213

Textbox 13.1 Climate model Links. 252

Textbox 13.2 Link to En-Roads model depicted in Fig. 13.6. 253

Textbox 13.3 Learn about En-ROADS’ science here. 253

Textbox 14.1 Failure is a possibility. 266

Textbox 15.1 Must do steps to slow global warming--Without them, failure is a possibility. 287

Special Reports

Special Report 1 Update on the Amazon. 102

Special Report 2 How can energy efficiency reduce greenhouse gas emissions? 174

Special Report 3 Current battery technology for renewable power generation. 179

Special Report 4 Emerging sustainable building technologies. 249

Special Report 5 Climate simulation tool identifies the most effective solutions. 251

Special Report 6 Does global warming pose a risk of liability for fossil fuel producers? 287

Preface: Why read this book?

Abstract

Explains why someone should read this book, what to expect. Includes a brief summary of impact of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war on global warming. Warns that the goal of achieving net zero by 2050 is unachievable but efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions using technology currently available must be accelerated.

Highlights

What to expect from this book; big changes from first edition. Brief summary of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war on global warming. The purpose of book is to provide a complete understanding of global warming. The goal of reaching net zero by 2050 is unachievable; need to accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions using currently available, proven, economic methods, avoiding poorly planned crash programs that will fail.

Keywords:

Climate change; COVID-19; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Greenhouse effect; Fossil fuels; Industrial revolution; Misinformation; Net zero; Practical solutions; Ukraine.

Along with the threat of world war and world-wide pandemics, global warming is one of the most important and complex public policy and international relations issues in the world today. Stopping global warming and mitigating its unavoidable consequences is not just a technical problem. For the most part, the science and technology available today are sufficient to address this problem. Many aspects of our society are being impacted in some way by global warming. The biggest challenges involve educating the public so that they will support the required changes, getting governments to support changing the energy economy and other actions, and achieving the level of international cooperation and coordination required.

Many changes have occurred since the first edition of this book was published in 2020 under the title Reaching Net Zero: What it Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic caused economic disruptions that initially led to reduced greenhouse gas emission, only to have them surge as the pandemic waned. In February, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, causing fuel shortages and supply disruptions that led to global economic concerns. As the war dragged on, some countries slowed their efforts to expand renewable energy, instead of prioritizing finding replacement sources of fossil fuels. China and India turned to coal, and the United States expanded the production of liquified natural gas to help Europe get through the winter. The United States took a step forward with the Biden plan to invest billions of dollars in support of renewable energy and projects to improve the energy infrastructure, but then followed with a step backwards, approving a massive opening of new leases for oil drilling in Alaska. A byproduct of the war in Ukraine is greater tensions between the United States, China, and Russia, potentially precluding critical international cooperation on global warming.

The purpose of this book is to provide a complete understanding of global warming with clear explanations of the science behind climate change. This book contains the facts people need to understand global warming and what can and should be done about it. We discuss actions that need to be taken, including a review of relevant past successes and failures with lessons learned. The complexities and challenges of addressing global warming are discussed.

For specialists such as those in earth science or environmental studies, this book is a useful overview covering the science, technology, economics, politics, international relations, and other issues involved in actually doing something about global warming. This should help specialists more narrowly focused on specific problems to understand all the issues and choices involved and the actions that must be taken. For academics, engineers, professionals, and concerned citizens, this book tells them what they need to know to understand, discuss, and debate global warming.

This book will be of interest to students in science, engineering, political science, international relations and perhaps other disciplines. For nontechnical students, this book is an understandable and comprehensive presentation of the science and technology needed to understand global warming and what should be done about it.

Global warming is due to increased greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities. Climate change is a consequence of global warming. It differs from weather. Weather is what happens regionally over short periods of time as determined by temperature, humidity, wind speed, rain or snowfall, atmospheric pressure, and other parameters. Climate is the average atmospheric condition over relatively long periods of time, usually 30 years, for a geographic region. Climate change is a broad term that encompasses the more frequent and severe weather events we are experiencing and other effects due to the earth's higher atmospheric and ocean temperatures.

Carbon dioxide (a molecule consisting of one atom of carbon and two of oxygen and abbreviated CO2) emissions from combustion of fossil fuels are the main cause of global warming. While CO2 is the major greenhouse gas, amounting to over three-fourths of the total, there are other gases, such as methane, that also contribute. When the combined effect of all the greenhouse gases is discussed, they are often referred to as CO2eq, shorthand for carbon dioxide equivalent. The use of fossil fuels to produce power and heat for consumers and industry accounts for most greenhouse gas emissions. However, twenty-five percent is due to agriculture and land use changes, mainly the destruction of forests to produce more land for agriculture.

Only by understanding the problem can intelligent solutions be evaluated and supported by a majority of the world's population. Global warming is further complicated by the fact that severe consequences may not occur for decades. We won't experience the full effects of our actions until some future date, due to latency, the delay between cause and effect. Yet, without prompt action NOW, the earth could reach a point where some climatic changes become irreversible and we lose the ability to stop them. No matter what actions are taken, the effects of global warming will be felt unevenly, hitting some areas harder than others. Energy costs are likely to increase during the transition to renewable sources and fossil fuel use will have to be largely eliminated. In the long-term, energy from renewable sources will be less expensive than from fossil fuels, especially if the public health costs of fossil fuels are considered. Changes in agriculture and land use will also be necessary.

To stop global warming, we need to get to net zero, meaning essentially eliminate greenhouse gas emissions due to human activity. Anything less will slow down but not prevent the ever-increasing temperatures. Even after net zero is achieved, it will take centuries for atmospheric greenhouse gases to naturally dissipate and decline to preindustrial levels. It will be impossible to completely eliminate all emission sources, so means must be found to capture some emissions on earth. Meanwhile, warming would continue.

As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere, they act as an insulating layer, reducing the amount of heat leaving the earth, causing it to warm up. Ocean temperatures also increase, polar ice and permafrost melts, and the sea level rises, due to the combined effects of thermal expansion and melting ice. Other physical evidence of global warming can be seen, as we will describe. The earth has had many cycles of climate change in its history—usually over periods of hundreds of thousands of years. What makes these recent changes noteworthy (and ominous) is that they are occurring at an unprecedented rate—in decades, not in millennia, as in prehistoric times.

In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), after detailed studies by a group of world climate experts, set a goal of limiting the earth's average temperature increase to 2.0°C (3.6°F) or preferably 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels. As we show in Chapter 3, the highest concentration of CO2 during the 350,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution was 300 parts per million (ppm). By May 2023, the atmospheric concentration had reached a high level of 424 ppm. ¹

¹  NOAA, Broken Record: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels jump again—annual increase in Keeling Curve peak is one of largest on record, June 5, 2023: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again.

IPCC estimated that meeting this temperature goal would require keeping the atmospheric concentration of CO2 below 450 ppm. Today, it is certain that the IPCC goal of limiting to a 1.5°C temperature rise cannot be met. Greater temperature increases are inevitable. The consequences of higher temperatures are unknown, but are likely to be severe.

The earth's average temperature has already increased more than 1.2°C above its average temperature before the start of the industrial revolution (estimated as 13.8°C or 56.8°F in 1880), and is headed toward a 2.0°C rise. While 2.0°C (3.6°F) may seem like nothing, for humans, a 2.0°C rise from the normal body temperature of 37°C (98.6°F) could mean a fever of 39°C (102.2°F) and a serious illness. ²

²  With thanks to John Goodman, who suggested this analogy in a letter to the Los Angeles Times, p. A12, December 5, 2018.

Sadly, it is not good enough to stop the rate of greenhouse gas emissions at current levels, otherwise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to increase indefinitely, leading to more global warming. The earth is already past the point where emissions were offset by absorption in the earth, by plants, or by oceans, as occurred in preindustrial times.

Readers are challenged by the large amount of climate disinformation disseminated by the fossil fuel industry and others, and by the complexity of much of the available valid science. Several organizations and individuals minimize the impact of global warming or promote the belief that nothing can or should be done about this problem. Others are promoting naïve and unrealistic solutions or timelines that cannot be met, such as getting to net zero by 2050. This book counters misinformation and misunderstandings concerning global warming.

There are no easy or quick solutions. The task ahead will be difficult, but doable. Nations may procrastinate. The degree of cooperation, foresight, and sacrifice needed may be beyond our current capabilities on a national or global basis. We may have to experience a severe crisis before effective actions are taken. We can see a substantial increase in the earth's temperature with drastic effects on the earth's climate and local weather patterns. Failure is an option.

This book addresses the science of global warming in a readable manner and provides references for readers who want more detail or to study the sources of information. It is organized into three parts, 15 Chapters, and numerous clearly labeled subchapters listed in the Table of Contents to make it easy for the reader to quickly identify topics of interest. Part One discusses the science behind global warming and the impact of global warming on our environment. Part Two discusses what it would take to get to net zero, the alternatives available, and the unique problems to be solved, with relevant case studies and lessons learned. Part Three is the recommended action plan to get to net zero with a realistic forecast of what is possible. This part discusses the feasibility of powering the world with renewable energy and the cost of making the transition to eliminate fossil fuel use. The importance of educating the public, explaining the true costs of fossil fuels, and the need for greater international cooperation are discussed. This book concludes with recommendations for governments, industry, and concerned citizens covering the technical, economic, public policy, and international issues involved and outlines a positive way forward.

This book proposes practical solutions that can be implemented now with today's technology that will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and put the world on a path toward net zero. Technical and economic trends that are in the right direction are not moving fast enough. These positive trends need to be accelerated. An optimistic future is possible with abundant energy to maintain rising living standards without most of today's air pollution. The negative consequences of not addressing this problem are described.

Although the IPCC goal of achieving net zero by 2050 is unachievable, we should start immediately with the technology we have. Dealing with this problem now will stimulate new approaches and the development of new technologies needed to get to net zero eventually. We provide a plan to address global warming that includes greater energy efficiency, replacing fossil fuels with renewable solar and wind power, and other practical measures. Fossil fuels have massive subsidies and tax credits. Although cash and tax subsidies are significant, the biggest subsidies arise from the ability to discharge pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at no charge. A fee on carbon emissions is one approach to apply a realistic cost to the effects of fossil fuel pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. If fossil fuel subsidies are not offset, the transition to renewable, nonpolluting sources of energy will be delayed.

The most important concepts in the book are illustrated with easy-to-follow calculations using actual, real-world data so that the reader can understand and replicate the analyses if they so desire. This book is a useful reference or handbook for those concerned about global warming. There are extensive references and end notes that would be helpful for readers looking for additional detail on the topics covered. Useful websites and major reports are listed in the appendices, which also include abbreviations, conversion factors, sample calculations, and other relevant information. Our website, https://theglobalclimatecrisis.com contains useful information and is frequently updated.

If you want to know more about global warming and what to do about it, read this book. If you like what you read, inform your friends. An informed and concerned citizenry is necessary to address this critical problem.

William D. Fletcher

Newport Beach, CA

Craig B. Smith

Santa Barbara, CA

---

¹  NOAA, Broken Record: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels jump again—annual increase in Keeling Curve peak is one of largest on record, June 5, 2023: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again.

²  With thanks to John Goodman, who suggested this analogy in a letter to the Los Angeles Times, p. A12, December 5, 2018.

Acknowledgments

It would not be possible to write this book without the dedicated efforts of thousands of scientists in many disciplines working today and in the past. Their efforts have gathered, analyzed, and reported the information needed. They have conducted experiments to verify and explain the changes we are observing. Without their efforts, the world would be experiencing changes without understanding what is happening and without insights concerning what can and should be done to prevent adverse effects. We are all in their debt.

We owe thanks to many people who encouraged us to write this book and who offered helpful suggestions and critiques. We are especially indebted to the scientists, engineers, economists, and lawyers who provided helpful feedback on the first edition: Curtis Abdouch, MS, Cecelia Arzbaecher, PhD, William Michael Barnes, PhD, John J. Berger, PhD, Paul Bjorkholm, PhD, Kevin C. Daly PhD, Jerry Dauderman, MBA, Joe Genshlea, Attorney, René Malés, MS, Thomas P. Merrick, MS, Tom Osborne, PhD, Kelly Parmenter, PhD, Robert Taylor, Environmental Writer, Russell Spencer, PhD, Richard Thompson, BSEE, MBA, and Peter Fletcher, MS.

To those individuals and organizations who generously gave permission to reproduce illustrations or other information from their publications, we express a special thanks: Professor Steven Chu, PhD, Stanford University; Pinya Sarasas, Programme Officer, UN Environment Programme, Nairobi; Axel Schweiger, Chair, Polar Science Center, University of Washington; James Balog, Photographer, Earth Vision Institute; Ms. Judi Mackey, Managing Director, Global Communications, Lazard; Ms. Julia O'Hanlon, Pew Research Center; and Mr. Niall McCarthy, Statista; Kristen Sissener, Berkeley Earth; Christian Mollard, and Isabel C, Alonso, Enerdata, Simone Webber, PhD, Creating Tomorrow's, Forests, Christine Ayala, The Messenger, and David Allot, The Hill. Also, a special thanks to Shahir Masri, PhD, University of California, Irvine, who kindly reviewed Chapter 3 for technical accuracy.

Photos were provided from the personal collections of Bill Fletcher, Craig Smith, Curt Abdouch, and Kent A. Smith.

We extend our sincere thanks to the authors of special reports: J. W. Dias, PhD, Kelly E. Parmenter, PhD, Magdy Farahat, PhD, Kuppaswamy Iyengar, Prof. of Architecture, Robert Taylor, Environmental Writer, and Joseph Genshlea, Esq., Attorney.

We gratefully acknowledge the support and encouragement of our wives Suzy Fletcher and Nancy Smith.

We are grateful for the professionalism and support of the fine staff at Elsevier. Jessica Mack, Acquisitions Editor of Environmental Science and Sustainability, made many useful suggestions for improving the format and readability of the manuscript. Also, we thank Lynsey Gathercole, Director, Content Management Group, Candice Janco, Publisher of the Earth and Environment team, and then a very special thanks to Himani Dwivedi, Editorial Project Manager, who accommodated our changes and suggestions with admirable patience and diligence. Sruthi Satheesh, Project Manager, Production, guided the manuscript into final format and Subash Balakrishnan, Copyrights Specialist, assisted with securing necessary permissions. Latoria Ray provided invaluable assistance for purchasing, with both the first and second editions. Finally, we thank Peter Llewellyn, Senior Acquisitions Editor, Space and Planetary Science/Geology, who was responsible for the first edition and who encouraged us to undertake the task of preparing the second edition.

Finally, any errors are our sole responsibility.

Acronyms

AEC    Atomic Energy Commission

CAGR    Compound Annual Growth Rate

CDC    U.S. Center for Disease Control

DOD    U.S. Department of Defense

DOE    U.S. Department of Energy

EIA    U.S. Energy Information Agency

EPA    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

EU    European Union

G20    Group of 20

GDP    Gross Domestic Product

IEA    International Energy Agency

IGY    International Geophysical Year

IPCC    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRENA    International Renewable Energy Agency

LCOE    Levelized Cost of Energy

NASA    U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCA    U.S. National Climate Assessment

NDC    Nationally Determined Contribution

NOAA    U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NRC    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

OAPEC    Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries

OECD    Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPEC    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

UN    United Nations

UNFCC    United Nations Framework Convention

WHO    World Health Organization

WMO    World Meteorological Organization

WRI    World Resources Institute

Chapter 1: Introduction

Abstract

A plain English overview summarizing the key points in the book without figures, equations, or tables. Contains a text box that has key points of the book. Provides an overview of greenhouse gases, the greenhouse effect, and why global warming is a serious problem. Useful for readers deciding if the book addresses their interests.

Keywords

Electrification; Fossil fuels; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Industrial revolution; Misinformation

Highlights

The reasons to be concerned about global warming are explained and the origins of Greenhouse gases described. Some possible solutions are outlined.

This introductory chapter is for concerned readers who may not have a science background but want to know more about global warming and what to do about it. It includes an overview of the book and presents the key points in nontechnical language.

Throughout the book we use metric units for the data presented. This is because the metric system is the global standard measurement system and because this book is written for a global audience. Where appropriate, we also show units that US readers are more familiar with, such as degrees Fahrenheit (°F) when temperatures are shown as centigrade degrees (°C). The Appendices have conversion tables that can be consulted if needed.

Introduction

Is global warming real? Yes, it is a serious problem that will only get worse. In the summer of 2023, the probable effects of global warming were becoming too obvious to ignore. The earth’s temperature had already increased 1.2°C (2.2°F).

Do we have to do what is needed to stop global warming? No, failure is an option. But, we would have to live with the consequences of ever-increasing global temperatures.

Even if we start an effective global program today to eliminate human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, it would take 30 or more years to implement. By that time, the earth’s temperature increase will likely exceed 2.0°C (3.6°F), the upper limit recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

We are starting to see on a global-scale events such as heat waves, floods, storms, and forest fires that are probably caused in part by global warming. It is increasingly difficult to say that they are normal weather extremes such as a 100-year storm. Global warming isn’t the only cause. Some effects also have a human component, such as poor forest management or building structures in flood plains, on the water’s edge or in areas at risk of forest fires. In 2023, El Niño, a weather cycle, may be contributing to warmer temperatures in the northern hemisphere.

One of the purposes of this book is to educate the public. The public is confused with good reason. There are people and organizations that say we can’t or don’t have to solve this problem because

1. Global warming is natural, not human-caused,

2. Even if it’s real, we can’t do anything about it,

3. We can’t give up fossil fuels, it’s too difficult or too expensive,

4. It is easier to adapt to a warmer world and mitigate some of the effects,

5. We should wait for new technologies that will bail us out,

6. Our efforts will be wasted. If we do what needs to be done, others won’t and global warming will continue.

Current plans, such as efforts to reach net zero (no human-caused greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050, will not succeed. Bold objectives, subsidies, tax breaks, and new regulations will not be sufficient. As discussed in this book, we need plans that define all that must be done to actually solve this problem and that put in place the organizations, resources, and budgets needed for the top emitting countries. In the United States, the federal and state governments should do the same. The National Highway System, the Apollo Program, and other big projects can serve as examples.

Even if we can’t get the level of global cooperation needed, the United States, the world’s second largest source of greenhouse gases, should proceed in cooperation with the European Union, Japan, and others who are willing to take action. More will follow eventually if incentives are in place, such as a border carbon tax that penalizes imports from those countries who are not reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

Should we be concerned about global warming?

Global warming is a serious threat