Reaching Net Zero: What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis

By William D. Fletcher and Craig B. Smith

Reaching Net Zero: What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis addresses the imminent need to fully understand the causes, effects, and evidence of global warming; due to the large amount of climate disinformation and complexity of much of the available valid science, this book addresses the science of global warming in a concise, readable manner while providing an in-depth reference for readers who want more details or to study the sources of information. This book also investigates potential practical next steps of interest to concerned scientists, engineers, and citizens, with an aim to further discuss and achieve the eventual Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘Net Zero’ goals. Solving the problem of reaching net zero requires educating others to support the changes that must occur and to provide the possible solutions required. This is a necessary read for academics in climate and environmental science, and specialists such as those in earth science or environmental studies, covering the science, technology, economics, politics, international, and other issues involved in doing something about global warming. It is also important for those interested in global warming and anyone involved in decision-making processes and legislation that deal with reduction in carbon footprints.

• Provides in-depth discussion of understanding the problem of global warming, with clear explanations of the science behind global warming and climate change
• Features case studies of successes and failures in reducing carbon footprints, with advised potential solutions for reaching net zero
• Takes a realistic approach to the problems and solutions of global warming in light of all available evidence across multiple disciplines

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Jul 28, 2020
• ISBN: 9780128235577

William D. Fletcher

Bill Fletcher retired as a Senior Vice President at Rockwell International Corporation responsible for corporate R&D and business planning. Most of his career involved business planning and international operations for large companies. He served as an officer and engineer in the navy working on the design and operation of nuclear powered ships, and was an engineer involved with the design and construction of commercial nuclear power plants. Later, he focused on industrial development and automation. His international experience includes an assignment in Saudi Arabia planning the large Jubail industrial development project on the Persian Gulf, with additional expatriate assignments in Asia, Europe, Africa, and Canada.

Book preview

Reaching Net Zero

What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis

William D. Fletcher

Rockwell International Corporation, (Retired) Costa Mesa, CA, United States

Craig B. Smith

DMJM+H&N, (Retired) Los Angeles, CA, United States

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

List of Figures

List of Tables

Photographs

Preface: Why read this book?

Acknowledgments

Acronyms

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract

Should we be concerned about global warming?

What about solar radiation?

The greenhouse effect

What are the greenhouse gases?

What are the signs of global warming?

What are the dangers of global warming?

Can anything be done about global warming?

Chapter 2. Addressing global warming

Abstract

Latency is a huge problem

Global warming is not obvious to the vast majority of people

The global economy is powered by fossil fuels

There is a need for unprecedented and perhaps unachievable international cooperation

All of us will have to be willing to accept changes

U.S. participation is essential

What can be done?

Part I

Chapter 3. The earth as a system

Abstract

Incident solar radiation

Milankovitch cycles

More about the greenhouse effect

Carbon cycle

Temperature increase

Chapter 4. Fundamental drivers of global warming

Abstract

Global population rising

Inequities: the early role of the United States and the United Kingdom

The pivotal position of the United States

Need to consider both absolute and per capita emissions

Gross domestic product growth and energy use are related

More energy will be required by developing countries

Chapter 5. How do we know global warming is real?

Abstract

Global warming is not a new idea

CO2 emissions are rising

Earth’s temperature is rising

Correlation of increasing global temperature with increasing atmospheric CO2

Ocean temperatures are rising

Sea levels are rising

Ocean acidification is occurring

A message from the Arctic?

Glaciers, ice caps, and sea ice are melting

The permafrost is melting

Extreme weather events are increasing

Deserts and tropics are expanding

Rising temperatures are causing plant, animal, and human migration

Early warning signs of global warming: a California case history

Chapter 6. How do we know man-made CO2 is the issue?

Abstract

Where do man-made greenhouse gases come from?

What happens to CO2 emissions?

The significance of carbon-14

Historic emissions since the Industrial Revolution

Increases in atmospheric CO2 correlates with fossil fuel use

What is your carbon footprint?

Chapter 7. What are the effects of global warming?

Abstract

Latency—how long before effects show up?

Climate change versus weather

Earth’s temperature will continue to rise

Air pollution will increase

Sea levels rise causing flooding

Oceans become more acidic

Glaciers, ice caps, and sea ice melt

Subsidence occurs and permafrost melts

Deserts and tropics expand

Species migration and extinction

Frequency and severity of storms

Impact on agriculture, droughts, loss of cropland, and wildfires

Health problems will be more severe

Could global warming cause a financial crisis or some other financial problem?

National security implications

Migrations caused by climate change

Tipping points: unanticipated changes can occur

Chapter 8. International efforts to address global warming

Abstract

Early efforts

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Paris Agreement

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special reports

History of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global warming objectives

Part II

Chapter 9. What would it take to reach net zero?

Abstract

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative scenarios

What would it take?

Are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios realistic?

Carbon removal

What is a more likely scenario?

Are we too late already?

Doing nothing is not an option

What will happen if we do nothing?

The high cost of doing nothing

Chapter 10. Energy alternatives

Abstract

Fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas

Nuclear power

Renewable energy

Chapter 11. Unique problems of major contributors to global warming

Abstract

What can we learn from Germany?

The United States fails to take a leadership position

China—Will it be the leader?

India—large population, little energy

Japan—strong technological capabilities

Russia—may not be a player

Observations

Chapter 12. Why is global warming such a difficult problem to solve?

Abstract

The need for unprecedented, perhaps unachievable, global cooperation

Fossil fuels are heavily subsidized

Educating the public

The media have not dealt fairly with global warming

Public uncertainty

A positive message is needed

Public support for government action

Why it is hard to replace fossil fuels?

Solving technical challenges

The need for strong economies

Understanding climate change skepticism

Recognizing political leaders can make mistakes

Acknowledging that failure is a possibility

Chapter 13. Some successes and failures

Abstract

The Permian Basin, a renewable energy powerhouse

1970s oil price hikes

Automobile emissions

Hole in the ozone layer

Cigarette smoking and cancer

Europe’s push for diesel vehicles

Nuclear power in the United States

Is there a future for nuclear power?

Ethanol

High-speed rail

Part III

Chapter 14. Action Plan: efficiency, power, transportation, and land use

Abstract

Do we need another moon shot?

The challenges of a global approach

An Action Plan, assuming we cannot get to net zero by 2050

Can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s goal of keeping global warming under 2°C be met?

Why can't we do better?

Silver bullets

Mitigation

Carbon fee

Chapter 15. Can it be done?

Abstract

The trend is our friend

Can renewable energy power the world?

Can wind power the world?

What would it cost?

Can we afford it?

Chapter 16. The way forward

Abstract

The future can be bright

Top priorities

Government actions

Actions for concerned citizens

Actions for industry

What next?

Afterword

Further reading

Useful reports

Useful websites

Part IV: Appendices

Appendix 1. Abbreviations, units, and conversion factors

Abbreviations

Units and conversion factors

Energy and GHG equivalencies

Greenhouse gas equivalencies

Appendix 2. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere: sources and sinks

Appendix 3. Will the IPCC goal of 450 ppm be met?

Appendix 4. Key parameters used to formulate Action Plan

Appendix 5. Flood and sea rise mitigation

Appendix 6. Financial measures

Cap and Trade

Fee and dividend

Appendix 7. Activist and lobbying groups, litigation examples

Activist groups

Litigation

Appendix 8. Excerpts from corporate annual reports

Bank of America

Olin Corporation

Eli Lilly Corporation

Verizon

The Southern Company

DuPont Corporation

Caterpillar

Home Depot

Chevron Corporation

Alliant Energy

DTE Energy Inc

UPS Corporation

Wisconsin Electric (WEC Energy Group)

Eaton Corporation

Duke Power

Corning Inc

Index

Copyright

Elsevier

Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands

The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom

50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.

This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

Notices

Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

ISBN: 978-0-12-823366-5

For Information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Candice Janco

Acquisitions Editor: Peter J. Llewellyn

Editorial Project Manager: Chiara Giglio

Production Project Manager: Kumar Anbazhagan

Cover Designer: Mark Rogers

Typeset by MPS Limited, Chennai, India

List of Figures

List of Tables

Photographs

Preface: Why read this book?

William D. Fletcher and Craig B. Smith, Newport Beach, CA, United States

Global warming is probably the most important and complex public policy and international relations issue in the world today. Stopping global warming and mitigating its unavoidable consequences are not just a technical problem. The science and technology available today are sufficient to address this problem without delay. Many aspects of our society will be impacted in some way by global warming. The biggest challenges involve educating the public so that they will support the required changes, getting governments to support a carbon fee and other actions and achieving the level of international cooperation and coordination required to solve this global problem.

The purpose of this book is to provide a complete understanding of global warming with clear explanations of the science behind climate change. The book contains the facts people need to understand global warming and what can and should be done about it. We discuss actions that need to be taken, including a review of relevant past successes and failures with lessons learned. The complexities and challenges of addressing global warming are discussed along with the unique problems of the six countries that are the largest sources of greenhouse gases.

For specialists such as those in earth science or environmental studies, this book is a good overview covering the science, technology, economics, politics, international relations, and other issues involved in actually doing something about global warming. This should help specialists more narrowly focused on specific problems to understand all the problems and choices involved and the actions that must be taken. For academics, engineers, professionals, and concerned citizens, the book tells them what they need to know to understand, discuss, and debate global warming.

This book will be of interest to students in science, engineering, political science, international relations, economics, public health, law, and perhaps other disciplines. For nontechnical students, the book is an understandable and comprehensive presentation of the science and technology they need to understand global warming and what should be done about it.

We see global warming due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions as the fundamental problem. Climate change is a consequence of global warming. Let us not confuse climate change and weather. Weather is what happens regionally over short periods of time as determined by temperature, humidity, wind speed, rain or snowfall, atmospheric pressure, and some other parameters. Climate is the average atmospheric condition over relatively long periods of time, usually 30 years, for a geographic region. Climate change is a broad term that encompasses the more frequent and severe weather events we are experiencing and other effects due to the earth’s higher atmospheric and ocean temperatures.

Carbon dioxide (a molecule consisting of one atom of carbon and two of oxygen and abbreviated CO2) emissions from combustion of fossil fuels are the main cause of global warming. While CO2 is the major greenhouse gas, amounting to about 76% of the total, there are other gases, such as methane, that also contribute. When the combined effect of all the greenhouse gases is discussed, they are often referred to as CO2eq, shorthand for carbon dioxide equivalent. The use of fossil fuels to produce power and heat for consumers and industry accounts for most greenhouse gas emissions. However, 25% is due to agriculture and land-use changes, mainly the destruction of forests to produce more land for agriculture.

Only by understanding the problem can intelligent solutions be evaluated and supported by a majority of the world’s population. Global warming is further complicated by the fact that severe consequences may not occur for decades. We will not experience the full effects of our actions today due to latency, the delay between cause and effect. Yet, without prompt action NOW, the earth could reach a point where warming becomes irreversible and we lose the ability to stop it. No matter what actions are taken, the effects of global warming will be felt unevenly, hitting some areas harder than others. Energy costs are likely to increase during the transition to renewable sources and fossil fuel use will have to be largely eliminated. Longer-term, it is possible that energy from renewable sources could be less expensive than from fossil fuels, especially if the public health costs of fossil fuel use are considered. Changes in agriculture and land use will also be necessary.

To stop global warming, we need to get to net zero, meaning essentially eliminate greenhouse gas emissions due to human activity. Anything less will slow down but not prevent ever-increasing temperatures. Even after net zero is achieved, it will take centuries for greenhouse gas concentration to naturally decline to preindustrial levels.

Global warming over the last 100 years or more is due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities, principally the combustion of fossil fuels to produce power and heat. As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere, they reduce the amount of heat leaving the earth, causing it to warm up. Ocean temperatures are increasing, polar ice is melting, permafrost is melting, and the sea level is rising due to the combined effects of thermal expansion and melting ice. Other physical evidence of global warming can be seen, as we describe. The earth has had many cycles of climate change in its history—usually over periods of tens of thousands of years. What makes these recent changes noteworthy (and ominous) is that they are occurring at an unprecedented rate—in decades, not in millennia, as in prehistoric times.

In 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), after detailed studies by a group of world climate experts, set a goal of limiting the earth’s average temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels. IPCC estimated that meeting this temperature goal would require keeping the atmospheric concentration of CO2 below 450 parts per million (ppm). As we show in Chapter 3, the highest concentration during the 400,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution was 300 ppm. By June 2019, the atmospheric concentration had reached a high of 415 ppm.¹ Today, it is certain that the IPCC goal of limiting to a 1.5°C temperature rise cannot be met. Greater temperature increases are inevitable. The consequences of higher temperatures are unknown, but are likely to be severe.

The earth’s average temperature has already increased 1.0°C above its temperature before the start of the Industrial Revolution (estimated as 13.8°C or 56.8°F in 1880) and is headed toward a 2.0°C rise. While 2.0°C (3.6°F) may seem like nothing, for humans, a 2.0°C rise from the normal body temperature of 37°C (98.6°F) could mean a fever of 39°C (102.2°F) and a serious illness.²

Sadly, it is not good enough to stop the rate of greenhouse gas emissions at current levels. At current emission levels, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to increase indefinitely, leading to more global warming. CO2 released to the atmosphere stays there for hundreds of years. If CO2 emissions stopped today, it would take hundreds of years for the excess CO2eq already in the atmosphere to completely dissipate. Meanwhile, warming would continue.

Readers are challenged by the large amount of climate disinformation disseminated by the fossil fuel industry and others, and by the complexity of much of the available valid science. Several organizations and individuals minimize the impact of global warming or promote the belief that nothing can or should be done about this problem. Others are promoting naïve and unrealistic solutions or timelines that cannot be met, such as getting to net zero by 2050. This book counters misinformation and misunderstandings concerning global warming.

There are no easy or quick solutions. The task ahead will be difficult, but doable. Nations may procrastinate. The degree of cooperation, foresight, and sacrifice needed may be beyond our current capabilities on a national or global basis. We may have to experience a severe crisis before effective actions are taken. We can see a substantial increase in the earth’s temperature with drastic effects on the earth’s climate and local weather patterns. Failure is an option.

This book addresses the science of global warming in a readable manner and provides references for readers who want more detail or to study the sources of information. It is organized into three parts, 16 chapters, and numerous clearly labeled subchapters listed in the Table of Contents to make it easy for the reader to quickly identify topics of interest. Part 1 discusses the science behind global warming and the impact of global warming on our environment. Part 2 discusses what it would take to get to net zero, the alternatives available, and the unique problems to be solved, with relevant case studies and lessons learned. Part 3 is the recommended action plan to get to net zero with a realistic forecast of what is possible. This part discusses the feasibility of powering the world with renewable energy and the cost of making the transition to eliminate fossil fuel use. The importance of educating the public, implementing a carbon fee, and the need for greater international cooperation are discussed. The book concludes with recommendations for governments, industry, and concerned citizens covering the technical, economic, public policy, and international issues involved, and outlines a positive way forward.

The book proposes practical solutions that can be implemented now with today’s technology that will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and put the world on a path toward net zero, the elimination of greenhouse gas emissions. Technical and economic trends that are in the right direction are not moving fast enough. These positive trends need to be accelerated. An optimistic future is possible with abundant energy to maintain rising living standards without most of today’s air pollution. The negative consequences of not addressing this problem are covered as well.

Although the IPCC goal of achieving net zero by 2050 is unachievable in the authors’ opinion, we should start immediately with the technology we have. Addressing the problem now will stimulate new approaches and the development of new technologies needed to get to net zero eventually. We provide a plan to address global warming that includes greater energy efficiency, replacing fossil fuels with renewable solar and wind power and other practical measures. A carbon fee—a price on CO2 emissions—is needed to offset the massive subsidies for fossil fuel use. Although cash and tax subsidies are significant, the biggest subsidies arise from the ability to discharge pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at no charge. A carbon fee will apply a realistic cost to the effects of fossil fuel pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. If fossil fuel subsidies are not offset, the transition to renewable, nonpolluting sources of energy will be delayed.

The most important concepts in the book are illustrated with easy-to-follow calculations using actual, real-world data so that the reader can understand and replicate the analyses if they so desire. This book is a useful reference or handbook for those concerned about global warming. There are extensive references and endnotes that would be helpful for readers looking for additional detail on the topics covered. Useful websites and major reports are listed in the appendices, which also include abbreviations, conversion factors, sample calculations, and other relevant information.

If you want to know more about global warming and what to do about it, read this book. If you like what you read, inform your friends. An informed and concerned citizenry is necessary to address this critical problem.

End Notes

1. CO2. earth, Daily CO2 readings, Mauna Loa Observatory, https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2.

2. With thanks to John Goodman, who suggested this analogy in a letter to the Los Angeles Times, December 5, 2018, p. A12.

Acknowledgments

It would not have been possible to write this book without the dedicated efforts of thousands of scientists in many disciplines working today and in the past. Their efforts have gathered, analyzed, and reported the scientific data needed to write this book. They have conducted experiments to verify and explain the changes we are observing. Without their efforts, the world would be experiencing changes without understanding what is happening and without insights concerning what can and should be done to prevent adverse effects. We are all in their debt. We owe thanks to many people who encouraged us to write this book and who offered helpful suggestions and critiques. We are especially indebted to the scientists, engineers, economists, lawyers, and others who reviewed an early draft of the manuscript: Curtis Abdouch, M.S., Captain Jerry Aspland, Cecelia Arzbaecher, Ph.D., William Michael Barnes, Ph.D., John J. Berger, Ph.D., Paul Bjorkholm, Ph.D., John E. Bond, Attorney, Virginia Casey, M.S., Frank E. Coffman, Ph.D., Kevin C. Daly, Ph.D., Jerry Dauderman, MBA, Peter Fletcher, M.S., Suzy Fletcher, M.L.S., Warren Fix, Joe Genshlea, Attorney, Rich Harms, Raymond W. Holdsworth, MBA, Tony Hsu, Ph.D., Marie Kontos, educator, John Kensey, MBA, Dave Larue, Ph.D., Wilbur D. Layman, Attorney, René Malés, M.S., John Martin, BSEE, Tom Merrick, M.S., Phil and Jane Miller, Tom Osborne, Ph.D., Gary Palo, M.S., Kelly Parmenter, Ph.D., James (Walkie) Ray, BSCE, Andrew Smith, Ph.D., Nancy Smith, educator, Robert Smith, Ph.D., Russell Spencer, Ph.D., Mark Taggert, environmental lobbyist, Robert Taylor, environmental writer, Richard Thompson, BSEE, MBA, Mitzi Wells, banker.

A special thanks to Shahir Masri, Ph.D., from the University of California, Irvine, who kindly reviewed the preliminary draft and then reread the final draft for technical accuracy.

We thank Matthew Laffin, Tenaya Parmenter, Halle DeMargo, and Mike Phillips for developing the illustrations, and Raeghan Rebstock for the website and social media design and support. Also thanks to Ms. Valeen Szabo, Director, Borrego Springs Chamber of Commerce, for providing information regarding the Borrego Springs micro grid project.

To those individuals and organizations who generously gave permission to reproduce illustrations from their publications, we express a special thanks: James Balog, Photographer, Earth Vision Institute; Professor Steven Chu, Ph.D., Stanford University; Ms. Judi Mackey, Managing Director, Global Communications, Lazard; Mr. Niall McCarthy and Statista; Ms. Julia O’Hanlon, Pew Research Center; Pinya Sarasas, Programme Officer, UN Environment Program, Nairobi; and Axel Schweiger, Chair, Polar Science Center, University of Washington.

Photos were provided from the personal collections of Bill Fletcher, Craig Smith, and Curt Abdouch.

We gratefully acknowledge the support and encouragement of our wives Suzy Fletcher and Nancy Smith.

We appreciate the professionalism and support of key staff at Elsevier. Lisa Reading, Senior Acquisition Editor, Energy, responded to our initial inquiry and referred us to Marisa LaFleu, who initiated the external review of our proposal. Next, Peter Llewellyn, Acquisitions Editor, encouraged us with his enthusiasm and support for our project, guiding us through the contract process and into the capable hands of Michelle Fisher and Chiara Giglio, Editorial Project Managers, who brought the book to life. Kumar Anbazhagan was Project Manager for overseeing the book through the production process. In addition, Ms. Ashwathi Aravindakshan assisted as Copyright Coordinator and Unni Kannan Ramu helped us with the financial paperwork.

Finally, any errors are our sole responsibility.

Acronyms

AEC Atomic Energy Commission

CAGR Compound annual growth rate

DOD US Department of Defense

DOE US Department of Energy

EIA US Energy Information Agency

EPA US Environmental Protection Agency

EU European Union

G20 Group of 20

GDP Gross domestic product

IEA International Energy Agency

IGY International geophysical year

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency

LCOE Levelized cost of energy

NASA US National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCA US National Climate Assessment

NDC Nationally determined contribution

NOAA US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission

OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

UN United Nations

UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention

WMO World Meteorological Organization

WHO World Health Organization

WRI World Resources Institute

Chapter 1

Introduction

Abstract

A plain English overview summarizing the key points in the book without figures or tables. It will be useful for readers deciding if the book is worth reading.

Keywords

Global warming; greenhouse effect; key points of book; global warming dangers

This introductory chapter is for concerned readers who may not have a science background but want to know more about global warming and what to do about it. It includes an overview of the book and presents the key points with a minimum use of figures and analysis.

Throughout the book we use metric units for the data presented. This is because the metric system is the global standard measurement system and because this book is written for a global audience. Where appropriate, we also show units that U.S. readers are more familiar with, such as degrees Fahrenheit (°F) when temperatures are shown as centigrade degrees (°C). The Appendices have conversion tables that can be consulted if needed.

Should we be concerned about global warming?

Global warming is a serious threat to life on earth as we know it and cannot be ignored. Most importantly, due to vested interests by the petroleum, coal, and natural gas businesses, the public has been subjected to conflicting and misleading information, and politicians have refrained from passing meaningful legislation for fear of losing financial or political support. The public hesitates to press their governmental representatives about a matter that seems to be far in the future and that might impact them financially through higher costs for fuel and electricity. To better understand the need for immediate action, we need to recognize that latency, or possible catastrophic delayed