Effectology

By Ion Grumeza

Effectology® is a philosophical concept developed by Ion Grumeza that examines the dynamics of accidents and their effects. Even minor accidents and incidental occurrences can have unexpected effects, resulting in enormous consequences. Consider the following examples:

•In 1920, King Alexander's pet ape, Moritz, fought with Fri

• Language: English
• Publisher: Conclusive Books
• Release date: Feb 17, 2024
• ISBN: 9798986332345

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Copyright © 2024 Ion Grumeza

Conclusive Books

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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise—without the written permission of the author/publisher.

Cover conceived by Ion Grumeza; created by Sarah Smith

Interior by Rachel L. Hall, Writely Divided Editing & More

Photos of Ion Grumeza in A Note to the Reader and on the back cover are from the author’s personal collection.

ISBN: 979-8-9863323-3-8 (Paperback)

ISBN: 979-8-9863323-4-5 (eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2024903550

Effectology: The Study of Accidents and Their Effects / Ion Grumeza — 1st ed., 1st printing.

A NOTE TO THE READER

Our life does not necessarily proceed as expected because life changes constantly. Non-stop additions of new circumstances create ups and downs, which can be triggered by accidents and their effects. Our lives are made up of countless comings and goings and are redirected by unexpected events that change our actions and plans for the future. The surprises we encounter are mostly caused by unforeseen accidents. Their effects impact our destiny at all levels of our existence. They happen when they are the least anticipated, forcing us to rethink our wise contemplation of a normal life.

Effectology deals with what people fear the most, including unthinkably bad accidents and their devastating effects that can change our lives in the blink of an eye. These can be perceived as miraculous, supernatural interventions, sometimes called acts of God, and they can include good accidents.

Every change is the result of many other previous changes, many not known by us. Effectology can work in our favor when we do many things correctly. It can also prepare us to cope with bad accidents that materialize into unhappy consequences and leave destructive effects behind. Effectology teaches us that we are not the first or the last to learn that life is not always fair, yet it can still be abundantly generous.

Life is not what you may want it to be; it is what happens to you.

To bravely face the odds and change circumstances in our favor, we need the power of knowledge. This is true for everything: from the arts to science, sports to medical discoveries, politics to culture and social civilization. All coexist in the confines of the realities of the society we live in, and all closely affect our relationship to our personal feelings and ambitions.

In challenging encounters I have faced, I have used many Effectological precepts. Thus, I have prevented many unpleasant surprises from happening to me. I did this by taking calculated risks to create good circumstances to help me achieve many desired goals in my life. I take credit for influencing my destiny to reach a better end. The more we know how others failed or succeeded in different fields of life, the more we can improve our daily experiences by selectively and wisely following the best examples.

My dear reader, I hope that by reading Effectology, you will learn from others’ experiences how to react and adapt to similar circumstances that you may experience. It may help you avoid harm, achieve success, and perhaps even live a happier life.

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Ion Grumeza lecturing on Effectology

Contents

PREFACE

I. A Short History of Near-Effectology

What did great minds and religion think about accidents and their effects?

Is the accident vital for something to happen?

How did varying philosophical thought influence the course of history?

II. The Divine Accidents

Are divine miracles the cause of our existence?

Are prophets sent by God?

What is the role of religion?

III. Materialism, Existentialism and Metaphysics

What is a random truth about the Universe and our Earth?

How important are our perceptions of reality?

What is the relationship between knowledge and truth?

IV. The Pro-Accidental Animals and Humans

How much do animals and humans have in common?

Are human birth, adaptability and evolution all accidents in the making?

What is the role of science and religion?

V. Effectology in Human Relations

How accidental are human relationships?

Can we control accidents in life?

How different are men and women?

VI. Effectology in Society and Politics

What kind of accidents change civilizations and societies?

What are the effects of revolutions and other civic movements?

How do societies progress over time?

VII. Effectology in Business

What are the most likely accidents in business?

How do you take an idea to market?

What are the major risks in business?

VIII. Effectology in War

What are the most accidental reasons to start a war?

Does winning a war take good leaders, strategies and tactics, or lucky accidents?

What is the effect of militarism on world history?

IX. Effectology in the Arts

What does it take to be an artist?

How does the artist function in real life?

How important are accidents and their effects on an artist?

X. Effectology in Health

What are the most common health accidents?

How important is the power of mind over body?

What do we fear the most in life?

XI. Reflective Afterthoughts

What rules life: chaos or accidental order?

Who is God?

What can terminate our life on Earth?

PREFACE

Effectology does not go beyond accidents to examine their provenance and detailed natures, for this is not a study of Accidentology, another name and concept missing from the philosophical dictionary. I named my worldview Effectology because the most significant effect of an accident is often only displayed in full view after a long time has passed. A causal accident can happen quite obviously in a fraction of a second or in a way hidden from view. Because nothing can exist without a cause, and almost every cause is due to an accidental change, I believe that accidents and their effects are the primary sources that affect cosmic changes, our world and our individual lives.

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The Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Collier-Macmillan, 1972) has eight volumes and more than 4,000 pages, but the word accident appears in it only a dozen times worth noting. The word effect has the same marginal importance. By studying these words in that source, I learned about many concepts, from denying the importance of my existence at all to the belief that I am the most important thing in the universe. Intrigued, I began to look for the real meaning of these two words, which I consider crucial to our existence. The word Effectology cannot be found in any dictionary, but it is the name of my new philosophical credo.

An accident is a random act of fate, and accident may come from the Greek acidium, meaning sour, which indicates a sudden change in the taste of something. It may come from the Latin accido (same as cado), meaning to fall, to strike, to happen. In a broad sense, accident covers anything that happens by chance, mostly without warning, regardless of whether it is a good or a bad happening. An individual accident is reflected through effects that impact its vicinity. This vicinity can include nearby molecules, our bodies, a dormant volcano, the entire solar system or the making of a black hole in the universe.

There is one common denominator: accidents cannot be controlled. There is no off or on lever to motivate, limit, or modify their actions. The results of accidents can be destructive or constructive. As a rule, accidents are always part of the past, but their effects can permeate the present and future. World War II of 80 years ago is gone, but today, more than 100 countries experience the aftermath of its effects.

An insurance company once advertised on television that accidents, not cancer or heart attacks, are the number one killer in the USA, and they may happen when you least expect them.

We live in a fragile and ever-changing world, and it is amazing how frail we can be when an accident strikes. However, there are good accidents with welcome effects that produce a thrilling sense of wonder, so in fact, the term accident includes good luck and personal success in its definition. Accident is sometimes replaced by incident (Latin for incidere, meaning to happen), which also reflects an unforeseen event without traumatic effects and with potentially milder impacts. We can see such an example from two people who meet incidentally on the same train or plane, like each other, and from that moment, their lives are never the same.

When speaking about an accident, the assumption is that something wrong and damaging has happened through its effects. However, plenty of accidents result in the best things in life. In fact, there is a word to describe this—serendipity—which, according to the Oxford American Dictionary, is the making of pleasant discoveries by accident.

*

I was accused of plagiarizing well-known theories such as those of action and reaction, cause and effect, the pendulum effect, the butterfly effect, the nonlinear effect, the dispersion of water waves, and the clicker theory, and that I was inspired by the laws of Karma and others. These all may have some similarities with Effectology, but I will leave it to the reader to judge the validity of the above accusations.

My Effectology treatise is neither an academic study nor intended to revolutionize the philosophical establishment. The minimal academic references I use are to prove my point, not to challenge theories and thinkers.

My intention in this book is partly to prove an obvious point totally ignored by predominant philosophies. The fact is that life is not a linear event but a sinuous summation of side events, primarily accidental and, therefore, unanticipated by us. All individuals have instinctual ideas about bad accidents and their effects because of what has happened to them, their friends or relatives, or what they’ve read in newspapers or seen on TV.

Every day, the world becomes more complex as technology reaches the limits of science fiction. Yet, due to an unknown accident, a lack of oxygen for 3 minutes in our atmosphere could suddenly kill the entire human population—never mind if a mega meteor came to pulverize our Earth. The fact that we were born after tens of generations past, and we humans have lasted so long despite countless deadly accidents on Earth, is nothing short of a divine miracle in itself.

*

After so much theory, I find it best to exemplify it with real examples of minor accidents that end with significant effects and vice versa. And here is the general picture of Effectology, which is often a truth hidden in plain view—it is about what happens around us on a daily basis.

I feel confident about the need for Effectology because Kentucky (where I live) is hit with a good share of the 800-some tornadoes in the United States each year. Whether a tornado is an act of God or a random natural disaster, the effect is the same: in minutes, even seconds, one can go from homeowner to homeless, from a perfectly healthy person to an injured or dead one. In no time, countless lives are changed forever.

The irony is that an accident can be big with no important effect or small with huge effects. Effects can be close or far-reaching, immediate or felt later. A car crashes in a total wreck, but the driver has no injuries until a year later. A slip in the bathtub can be nothing, marked by injuries, or fatal. A massive flood can be without casualties, and a minor flood can take houses away. A child steals a piece of candy from a supermarket, and an immediate disciplinary effect settles that matter, or the little thief can become a lifetime kleptomaniac.

On a much larger and more dramatic scale, who could have foreseen that the Titanic would sink on its first voyage across the Atlantic? Everyone expected the unsinkable giant to set a record speed between London and New York, not to become the accident of the century. It’s the same with the Hindenburg dirigible with the swastika painted on it, as it made its planned non-stop flight in 1937 from Germany to New Jersey but caught on fire and exploded at its landing. It was an accident in the making since the US refused to export the safer helium to Nazi Germany, and the blimp was inflated with hydrogen, a most flammable gas.

Effectology can be seen, too, in a small accident packing big effects, such as a mosquito bite that infects a human with the West Nile virus and results in death. In fact, it is the number one killer in world history, more than all wars put together. The minuscule insect was responsible for the death of almost 22,000 workers in the original attempt spanning 12 years (1881–1893) to build the 51-mile-long Panama Canal that bankrupted the Bank of France. The US finished the project in ten years (1904–1914) with an additional 5,600 casualties.

However, after calculated risks, which resulted in many deadly accidents, the canal is now safe for ships to pass through, in spite of (or thanks to) its three megalithic locks. I once passed through the Panama Canal. From the top deck of a giant cruiser with 16 floors, I stood amazed as I witnessed the cruiser navigate the manmade waterway. Financially speaking, the Panama Canal is a gold mine, saving thousands of miles of crossings between two oceans in Central America instead of sailing through the Straights of Magellan close to Antarctica. Its operation is so profitable that a second canal was begun in 2009 by the Belgians. I wonder if 3,000 years from now, people will ask if giants built the canal, just as we ask about the pyramids. In fact, giants were involved—giants produced by the American Industrial Revolution, named bulldozers, excavators, cranes and automatic jackhammers capable of breaking, moving and building anything.

*

As intuitively written as it was, this book may also be important for what I left out rather than for what I put in it because of page count restrictions. Like any other philosophy, Effectology has its share of ifs and maybes, but I hope my writing is concise and well-substantiated. I tried hard to avoid the effects of tautology, a common accident of thinkers who split hairs.

Effectology is intended to be a cognitive study of and pragmatic approach to viewpoints about intricate metaphysical implications at all levels of life on Earth and even in celestial space. It does not put God or other mysterious forces in a position to answer and solve the unthinkable or to explain the unexplainable. Instead, Effectology is intended to examine the powerful effects of unruly and uncontrollable actions of accidents and their impact on us, our environment, and our world.

Drawing from hundreds of examples, Effectology teaches lessons on how to better survive, make the best of, and cope with the bad effects of accidents. Additionally, it demonstrates how to fully enjoy good accidents and their beneficial effects. Understanding Effectology will help you avoid harm, learn to be an achiever and have a happier life.

I hope my book will enhance your study of the powerful effects of the unruly and uncontrollable actions of accidents and their impact on us, our environment, and our world. Nothing lasts forever and Everything changes are ancient axiomatic truths, which are enough in themselves to justify the need for my philosophical and explanatory concept of Effectology. It may provide you with an important new, more alert perspective, thereby replacing a passive, everyday, ordinary glimpse at all that happens around you.

With so many increased and unwanted accidents at all levels of life in our time, I believe Effectology may be the right type of practical philosophy for the 21st century.

Essentially, Effectology is a part of metaphysics that studies what happens in nature, including the reasons for the countless changes in life. It provides understanding, even in religion, beyond our standard knowledge and perception by helping us see why and how circumstances are created by accidents and their effects. Effectology plays a vital role as a guidebook for how modern humans can adapt to the new digital age. It allows ancient metaphysics to be revived as an important part of understanding what is happening in today’s world and the challenges we face in it, such as artificial intelligence.

Now that I have initiated this philosophical concept, I invite you, the reader, to search further, draw conclusions I may have omitted in Effectology, and fill in needed gaps with more information. It will be my greatest reward for the hard work and countless nights I spent finishing this book. I welcome educated commentaries and constructive advice, which can be sent to CONCLUSIVE BOOKS at [e-mail].

Thank you, patient and understanding readers.

Ion Grumeza, Ph.D.

Metaphysical Sciences

I. A Short History of Near-Effectology

An accident is a surprise arranged by nature.

—Ancient proverb

Questions that will be considered:

What did great minds and religion think about accidents and their effects?

Is the accident vital for something to happen?

How did varying philosophical thought influence the course of history?

Philosophy, in the ancient sense, referred to the desire of men to find truth through contemplation, critical discussion, and the search for wisdom. It was the sublime art of satisfying intellectual curiosity, which, after much inquiry and debate, ultimately arrived at a system of ideas and principles. It was a science of deep, reflective thinking destined to purify and free the mind and soul. It was a refined love of discovering the true nature of reality and divinity and knowing what life was about, even beyond the grave. It was a glorious struggle of the most brilliant minds to find the role of humans in the universe.

Great Greek and Roman philosophers were credible because they exposed their ideas in plazas in front of people interested in new ideas. The audience’s clear reaction and instant response was a reliable guide for any orator to readjust his or her ideas.

The ancient philosophers knew that accidents cause changes with lasting effects. Seeds of Effectology can be found in the ancient idea of karma and a common belief in reincarnation shared by many Oriental religions. In Sanskrit, karma refers to actions and their results, connecting humans with nature and ruling their spirituality and fate in their present and future lives. Good activity leads to nirvana and rebirth. Bad actions push one away from that happiness.

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In Buddhism, which is based on the philosophical principles of Buddha, to be active is a cause in itself, and being around others is to react with goodness to their activity. Honesty, compassion, generosity, and respect for the lives of others comprise some of the combined ideals of this Indian religion.

The Taoist doctrine of ancient Chinese philosophy (from the 4th century BC) taught that all things were in a state of perpetual self-transformation because of mutual causation. More precisely, each thing produces its opposite in order to complete a cycle of evolution from beginning to end, only to begin again, ruled by Tao (cosmic energy).

In ancient Greece, Pythagoras (580 BC–500 BC) was probably the first philosopher to combine the skill of precise mathematical science with deep religious belief. He believed that the soul’s salvation was trapped in a mortal body. He developed the concept of the harmony of the cosmos and described it in a mathematical sense—and he came close to showing the cause and effect of many celestial occurrences. Since 500 BC, the Pythagorean system of thinking has stood the test of time, enduring to the present day. Not much has changed regarding human curiosity, feelings, the desire for truth, and the unavoidable fear of death.

Heraclitus of Ephesus lived in the same era as Pythagoras. He agreed that the world undergoes constant change, and nothing remains the same. He spoke of the fluidity and irreversibility of things in nature, launching an entire philosophy with his statement, No man ever steps in the same river twice.

Aristotle (384–322 BC) distinguished between ordinary motions, such as a free fall, and motion per accident, like an object hit and moved. Natural motions, like the circular motions of celestial objects and rectilinear motions of terrestrial objects, are due to the accidental motion of objects forced to move from their resting state. The effect of accidental motion results in another motion that keeps going in perpetuity. To his credit, Aristotle was the tutor of the young Alexander the Great.

In the 4th century BC, the Stoics believed that all incidents in nature were mastered by God and that they were elements of destiny. I add that an incident happens in connection with other occurrences and always depends on something else.

Archimedes (287–212 BC) was renowned for his logic and engineering mind. He knew that all matter is constantly in motion and all objects stay in relative balance. The life of this great mathematician was cut short by the sword of a conquering Roman soldier who found him solving a problem written in the sand. Of course, he never anticipated an accident like that would end his life.

Lucretius (99–55 BC) built on Aristotle’s previous explanations a third cause of movement, this time related to atoms in regard to weight and impact. He called it unpredictable movement. He further speculated that humans have inborn willpower. He came close to anticipating the power of accidental force and its effect in nature and life. In an effort to enhance his poetry, he took hallucinogenic drugs. He died by suicide, the ultimate self-inflicted accident.

Mohammed of Arabia (AD 570–632) was not a philosopher but certainly a giant leader, a self-made prophet inspired by Jesus’ example. He founded a new religion that united the desert people into one of the most powerful military forces ever: the Ottoman Empire.

Avicenna (AD 980–1037), the great philosopher of medieval Islam, investigated the necessity of cause that may (or may not) produce an effect in determining the existence of something. He also speculated on the infinity of such causes coexisting with their effects to form a finite chain. Avicenna experienced many accidents in his life, finally dying after being poisoned by his servant.

Peter of Spain (1210–1277) was probably the most learned man of any historical period. He displayed many exceptional virtues. Peter was a physician, logician, philosopher, and pope. Finally, under the new name of Petrus Hispanus, he was destined to revolutionize the thinking of his time. Yet his brilliant knowledge and noble intentions were abruptly terminated when the ceiling of his new office collapsed and killed him (talk about an accident and its mortal effect!).

Thomas Aquinas (1224–1274), the Catholic philosopher, was very aware of natural creation and its existence as proof of cause and effect. The interaction of these two forces moving back and forth was his proof that God exists as the ultimate creator of all existing things. For that reason, Aquinas believed that accidents never exist by themselves since something must trigger them.

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Skipping over hundreds of years of incredible philosophical activity and amazing theories in which accidents and effects found almost no place, science began to play a chief role in all discoveries. By definition, science was, and still is, a precise method of explaining why things are the way they are. Its main role is to replace guesses, regardless of how educated they are. Since ancient times, mathematics has been the ultimate authority. Amazingly, it was not until AD 1489 that the important symbols + and - came into use and boosted that field of knowledge. Also, most scientists from the Middle Ages were philosophers, so they fulfilled a dual role in bridging the two disciplines.

Nicolas Copernicus (1473–1543), the brilliant Polish astronomer and clergyman, arrived as a revolutionary who believed all planets move in the universe in perfect circles, including the Earth around the sun. His philosophical theory challenging the teachings of the Bible was much debated by the Church.

Giordano Bruno (1548–1600), the heretic Italian philosopher, wanted to substantiate the Egyptian belief of universal animation. He argued against existing theology to defend the concept of our ever-expanding universe and its continuous motion.¹ When pressured, he refused to take back his assertion of an infinite universe with innumerable moving worlds, which was considered an affront to the Scriptures, so he was burned at the stake. Because of such accidents of rethinking previously accepted worldviews, the world’s mentality changed rapidly from a theology-only mindset to include science.

Johannes Kepler (1571–1630), the founder of modern astronomy, wrote the revolutionary book A New Astronomy Based on Causation. In it, he explained the concept of physical forces.

René Descartes (1596–1650) came very close to Effectology when he stipulated that a continual existence in motion exists in all bodies. He believed that any moving force comes from God, the primary, universal, and effectual cause of any motion. Descartes also defined the meaning of idea in his Rules for Direction of the Mind. He did not say, however, that those many things had an accidental impact that affected the mind’s thinking.

Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) analyzed the meaning of substance and defined body in terms of accidents that are mathematically traceable in mechanics and geometry. Accident to him was the manner by which any body is conceived. Vague about the importance of accidents, Hobbes focused on action and motion as necessities of existence.

Soko Yamaga (1622–1685), the philosopher, argued that the universe is the result of yin and yang movements, which are passive and active elements engaged with no beginning or end. He was a provocative, deep thinker who believed something must cause the elements to be either at rest or in motion.

Baruch/Benedict Spinoza (1632–1677) stated in his book Ethics: From a given determinate cause, an effect necessarily follows; and, on the other hand, if no determinate cause be given, it is impossible that an effect can follow. He was aware of the concepts of first and last cause, and another cause behind those. However, Spinoza flatly denied the existence of accidents as a necessity in nature.²

Isaac Newton (1642–1727), an ordained priest in the Church of England, demonstrated the laws of motion and gravity. He stated, To the same natural effects, we must, as far as possible, assign the same causes. According to his third law of physics, To every action there is always an equal reaction, and An object that is disturbed, it disturbs the motion of another object, but in opposite direction. As a mathematician, he referred to logical causes, but accidents were not to be included in correct calculations.

Wilhelm Leibniz (1646–1716) concluded that any effect taken in its totality is quantitatively equal to its entire cause. He came up with two rules of impact. He also studied the relationship between an effect and its cause, but his study was limited to speculative deductions. His final creed rested in a belief in God’s harmonious creation of each substance.

David Hume (1711–1776) paid attention to the inferences between objects and causal relations, concluding that anything might cause anything. Yet, he saw no necessary relation between cause and effect. Hume’s skepticism stopped him from further investigating a subject that could have been very close to Effectology.

Edward Gibbon (1776-1788) wrote The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and believed that History, in fact, is no more than a list of the crimes of humanity, human follies and accidents.

Immanuel Kant (1724–1804) was also interested in how forces act against each other. He concluded that ...in all communications of motion, action and reaction must always be equal. He additionally addressed the effects of his own actions and the effectiveness of reason. Obviously, he did not have Effectology in mind, but he engaged in provocative thoughts along its lines.

Thomas Brown (1778–1820) was a Scottish philosopher who approached cause and effect as an intuitive belief. To him, a cause was that which immediately preceded any changes, and which, existing at any time in similar circumstances, has been always, and will be always, immediately followed by a similar change. He stopped short of Effectology in his elaboration on various causes that generate unpredictable effects.

Friederich Hegel (1770–1831), the brilliant German idealist, timidly tried to prove philosophical reasons to justify the assertion that other celestial bodies cannot sustain life. He never considered that everything was logically arranged in limitless space ruled by cosmic transformations.

Michael Faraday (1791–1867) was one of the geniuses of science without any formal education. He demonstrated that electric currents form when lines of magnetic forces intersect.³ This was a demonstration of Effectology at its best, as he showed accidental magnetic forces that produce electricity.

Chauncey Wright (1830–1875) was an American philosopher and mathematician who made acute observations on cosmic activity. He believed in the doing and undoing of celestial activity and the principle of countermovement based on action and counteraction. According to Wright, some events are caused by the parallelogram of forces.

Karl Marx (1818–1883) was well known for his revolutionary socialist and economic ideas. He saw physical movements as being produced by contradictions and the clashes of opposite forces, which he applied to historical events. He was undoubtedly right about those human forces when they erupted as revolts of the unhappy masses of people in search of a better life, but they ignored the changes caused by social accidents.

Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte (1769–1821) shortened Marx’s voluminous ideas about proletarian revolutions by uttering, Revolutions take place when an idea finds its bayonets!

Ironically, the leader of Russian nihilism, Nicolai Chernyshevski (1828–1889), concluded that man’s actions are strictly subjected to the law of causality, which obliges him to act in different ways and change his behaviors based on the situation. The idea of a useless and senseless existence put him in Siberian exile for 25 years.

Friederich Nietzche (1844–1900) strongly argued, You must have chaos within you to give birth to a dancing star.

Vasile Conta (1845 –1882), a Romanian philosopher, agreed that necessary causes are the source of necessary response, and any movement is generated by a prior cause producing an immediate and specific reaction.

Jules Lachelier (1832–1918) was a French idealist who devised the law of efficient causes. He never answered how a phenomenon occurs or how objects interact to form complex phenomena, but he intuitively approached the law of final causes.

Wilhelm Wundt (1832–1920) was a renowned German thinker and the founder of the first psychological laboratory. His strongest views resulted from a personal accident when he became so ill at the age of 24 that his doctors refused to treat him. For weeks, the young Wundt was between life and death, and during that time, he re-shaped his religious and philosophical ideas.

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (1870–1924) was a Marxist dialectician who saw the basis of all changes as a creation of self-movement of matter generated by the struggle of opposing forces. A devoted Marxist, he creatively applied the study of contradiction in the very essence of objects to the Bolshevik revolution.⁴

Richard Wahle (1857–1935), an Austrian professor, came up with a solid philosophy of occurrence that produced really operative, powerful substantial primitive factors. He agreed that those factors are unknown but effective enough for us to sense them.

Wolfgang Kohler (1887–1967) almost touched on the idea of Effectology by claiming that men and even animals can have a feeling that causes a particular event or what may come out of a particular line of action.

Adolf Hitler (1889–1945) was neither a philosopher nor a scientist, but he certainly understood the power of historical accidents since he was a product of it. The German dictator strongly believed, Everything has a cause; nothing comes by chance.

Ronald Reagan (1911–2004) was a two-time president of the US and a practical political thinker who believed, History is a river that may take us as it will. But we have the power to navigate, to choose direction and make our passage together, referring to the American people.

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Many important philosophers from the past did not belong to rigid academic institutions, and some defied them. In the philosophical field, any change in opinion may be due to an accident or a shocking experience, as well as to new scientific discoveries, political movements, etc., leading to great ideas. Other philosophers contradicted themselves. For example, Sören Kierkegaard (1813–1855) went so far as to publish books under pseudonyms to attack his previously written works.

Severinus Boethius (AD 480–524) was the last Roman philosopher as well as the magistrate of the emperor Theodoric. Mastering Greek and Latin, he wrote and translated important books that influenced the thinking of the Middle Ages.⁵ He was charged with conspiracy against the emperor and, being imprisoned, tortured and executed, became a Christian martyr.

Many other great thinkers suffered because of an unfair twist of fate: Buddha died of starvation, Jesus was crucified, Mohammed was beaten by his Arab deniers, Hegel died of cholera, and Ludwig Feuerbach (1804–1872), who was an atheist critical of religion, also influenced Marx, Darwin, Freud, Nietzsche and ended up a beggar. These tragic examples demonstrate that even glorious lives can be suddenly turned around and terminated by an accident.

Sadly, most philosophers lived under torturous conditions. Often depressed, socially outcast and hoping for acceptance, short of money and vainly looking for honorable jobs, they also had disastrous relationships with women. Most of them suffered from ill health, which was probably a natural bodily reaction to their tumultuous and inquisitive brains, and many retired in reflective seclusion. Almost all died young of disease, went insane, or died by suicide after living short, miserable lives. I have counted 25 suicides of famous philosophers. Now, we cherish them for their brilliant minds.

*

Some philosophers have come very close to identifying the concept of Effectology, but they could accept only logical explanations for their own theories. In their opinion, accidents occur too randomly to deserve any logical attention. A caprice of chance is not considered a classic subject for philosophical analysis.

A female philosopher, Gertrude Elizabeth Margaret Anscombe (1919–2001), most closely approached Effectology. Anscombe assumed that causality must involve necessity, and she believed that causality is the derivative of the effect from the cause. However, she thought very little about the role of universality in the entire matter.

Effectologically speaking, to deny accidents and their effects is to deny the changes that continue to happen around us. Accidents were never a main point of study in philosophy, even though many human beings, from a scientific and philosophic viewpoint, are the results of accidents—products of unplanned pregnancies and shotgun weddings.

I feel that Effectology has a place in the history of thinking. During our turbulent times, many uncertainties are caused by the most unusual accidental circumstances. Indeed, our inherited genes are no match for technical progress and its demands on us. From starving to fully medicated diets to computerized business, humans always face new challenges, many caused by pure accidents of unusual circumstances.

The secret to boring a reader or an audience is to oversimplify or over-analyze important matters about our existence. In the following chapters, I will try to obey this cardinal rule to prove the need for Effectology.

Endnotes

1 Bruno became the propagator of a new cosmology: he explained the Earth’s cyclic rotations around the sun, which ultimately brought him a demonic reputation and put him in conflict with the merciless Inquisition. He was accused of contesting the virginity of Mary, of Jesus as being a messiah, of Trinity and of reincarnation. He spoke against the Catholic Church and its ministers, and his belief in the infinite universe with solar systems and multiple worlds brought him the death sentence. In the year 1600, he was publicly executed naked, upside down and burned alive at the stake. His ashes were thrown in the Tiber River.

2 With the Inquisition losing its controlling power, the freedom of expression produced many radical thinkers, such as Benedict (Baruch) Spinoza, a rationalist metaphysician. Even though he had a rabbinical education, he envisioned God as being identical with nature and its infinite complexity. His pantheism produced horror in the religious world, and Spinoza was expelled from his own Jewish community and then by Christianity.

One must remember that the great Spinoza made a living by grinding optical lenses. He remained faithful to his ideas rather than accepting teaching positions, including one at Heidelberg University. Aware that a professorship would put a stop to his independent thinking, Spinoza preferred laboring with his hands to make his living. Eventually, the dust from polishing glass caused his premature death. Similar tragic accidents were experienced by other philosophers and prophets.

3 The rapid progress in the chemistry and physics fields brought remarkable discoveries that proved the similarity between microcosms and the macrocosm. For the first time, an abstract energy was put into action, and the conservation of energy was possible.

4 During this bloody Russian Civil War, it was the pristine ideas of dialectical materialism that won the victory for the Communists. The Russian old world was to be destroyed because it was based on the exploitation of the workers by the inherited elite class. It was needed countless military, social and economic deadly accidents carried by the millions of destructive Russian paupers and deserted soldiers to plunder, rape and kill the anti-revolutionaries who made Lenin the leader of a new Soviet equalitarian society.

5 Boethius was a victim of a brutal accident that he could not control. Even holding the position of a prime minister of the empire, he was accused of trying to revive the power of the Roman Senate and of negotiating in secret with Byzantium. The revered philosopher was arrested, exiled, and executed. Just like Socrates, who was forced to drink poison in order to save his honor in the face of treason charges, Boethius experienced firsthand the power of a political accident.

II. The Divine Accidents

It was an act of God!

—A common reaction

to a serious accident

Questions that will be considered:

Are divine miracles the cause of our existence?

Are prophets sent by God?

What is the role of religion?

For early civilizations, the effects of natural accidents were devastating and frightening: lightning set forests afire, volcanic eruptions darkened the sunlight and spewed stones and dust, earthquakes shook the earth, and floods wiped out settlements. These natural disasters produced psychological reactions in people hidden in caves. The more accidents they encountered, the more prayers they offered to a supreme power for protection. In time, Homo Religiousus was born out of necessity.

Prayers and supplications asking to belong to a safer world were usually directed to what was most impressive: mountains, rivers, a giant tree, a strangely shaped rock, a predatory animal, and, of course, the sun, the moon and the stars. The prayers invoked good divine accidents: fruitful hunting and fishing, success in fighting rival tribes, and a stable life for all tribe members. As civilization grew, creative mythological thinking grew as well.

Eventually, the supernatural deities, once represented by nature, became supermen with extended families of sub-gods. The Homeric gods were assigned a specialized vital mission: to protect families, warriors, sailors, hunters, lovers, and so on. All Olympian gods were immortal, and all the rituals dedicated to them became the foundation of a systematic religion. Any accidents in nature or at a personal level signaled the need to pamper the gods with prayers, gifts, and sacrifices or to build another temple.

No doubt, Christianity recognizes the power of accidents and their effects (divine or not) because all prayers end with a powerful and hopeful Amen, which means So let it be. Concerning accidents and religion, many say there are no accidents: everything is God’s will. Some events were prophesied in general, but no one knew how or when they might occur as divine accidents.

All religions are good for their believers. Religious belief and practice enable the mystery and rituals needed to set up a human behavioral code that will please a certain god. Religion has a powerful grip over all human emotions and can control them. It is self-evident that religion fights sin and demands only good deeds be done by its believers, who will be rewarded from above.

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Religion clarifies what is good and what is evil, while philosophy offers a large array of choices. One man who shed light on all those complicated concepts was Jesus. He was never vested with any academic or religious authority to preach. In terms of Effectology, his birth was a complex accident that forever changed the pagan world.

Jesus was a humble missionary who called his God my Father and considered all humans to be God’s children.¹ Yet his divine calling did not absolve him from the mortal accidents that influenced his ministry and life.

The first accident involving him started before Jesus was even born when his virgin mother was inseminated by the Holy Spirit, and the Magi of Persia, in April of the year AD 1, saw the royal star Jupiter eclipsed by the moon. Oral tradition held that this celestial event would signify that a new Messiah king would be born. The legend that has been told over time is that a shining ray from the sky led three wise men (most likely Jews living in Babylon) from Persia to Bethlehem, where Mary, likely a Gentile woman who was pregnant without a husband, was denied registry of the baby Jesus as a Jew of Nazareth. Yet, Jesus could not be Jewish since his mother, Mary (real name Maria), was a Gentile, and his God the Father was not Jewish.

The second accident was the denial of the 13-year-old Jesus’ entry to the synagogue, where a kind of bar mitzvah probably took place. Most likely, Jesus was not circumcised. It was the precise moment when he realized he could belong to the Jewish society and its religion.

The third accident occurred when, at a later age, this young, wise man spent 40 days in the desert. He probably joined the tribe of the ascetic and unmarried Essenes, who influenced his philosophy. Some believe that while there, he learned how to perform amazing feats of magic and was initiated into the art of healing by hypnosis.

The fourth accident happened before Jesus did or said anything great, when his cousin, John the Baptist, announced the coming of God’s son. That was when John named the younger cousin Iesua, which in the Aramaic dialect meant the Savior, or Jesus in Greek. The news created an adverse effect among the pious Israelites who’d had enough of previous false messiahs. However, people from Galilee received Jesus as their deliverer who would set them free. They promptly named Jesus a Chrestos, or Christ, which in the same dialect means the anointed one, similar to Messias/Messiah/the king. John was later beheaded by Herod, the real king of Caesarea/Palestine, for his spiritual work. Luckily enough, Herod died before he could kill Jesus as well.

The fifth accident consisted of everything Jesus said and did in his years of ministry. He performed some 33 amazing miracles on humans and even controlled and unleashed the forces of nature. However, Jesus was bold and confident when declaring to his followers and audience that he was the Son of God and was present in the ante-mortal world before Adam, Eve, and Abraham. He came to Earth to represent his God the Father and redeem the sins of humanity. By saying, I’m the bread of life, he implied that those who would follow him would never be hungry or thirsty again, at least in the spiritual sense.

Even though Moses predicted the coming of the prophet, the Jewish priests believed that Jesus’ actions were blasphemous and tarnished their god Jehovah. To them, Jesus could not be the messiah because he came from Galilee, not from Judea, where God’s chosen people lived. The Jews refused to accept Jesus’ divine origin and remained disciples of Moses, not this Sabbath-breaker who promised to demolish their sacred temple and rebuild it in three days.

The sixth accident was the most important so far. It was when Jesus and his followers marched into Jerusalem. If that were not enough, Jesus started a riot at the Holy Temple, attacking its servants who believed that Jesus was neither the Son of God nor a Messiah, prophet, or rabbi since he was from the Gentile Nazareth.

The seventh accident was the effect of the previous one. Jesus could not have chosen a worse time than the Jewish Holy Week. The insulted Jewish High Council decided to eliminate Jesus. They delivered him to Pontius Pilate to judge him as a false prophet, a religious blasphemer, and a rebel against Roman power. Jesus defended himself with wisdom and was found not guilty by the Roman governor. However, the already-incited Jewish crowd quickly convinced Pilate to crucify Jesus.

The eighth accident was the crucifixion, when Jesus, now renamed Iesus Nazarenus Iudaeorum by the Romans, was challenged to rescue himself from dying as proof that he was indeed the son of God. Jesus accepted death for the sins of humanity. Three days later, he was said to have been resurrected, showing that everything he preached was the truth about life after death.

The New Testament is unclear about how Jesus really died. It would take two days for a crucified person to die. But Jesus was taken off the cross and carried from Golgotha/Skull Hill after sundown on Friday. This good accident occurred after a powerful storm and earthquake that frightened the legionnaires and a rich admirer who used his tomb for Jesus’ burial.

Equally frightened were the Jerusalemites, who noticed that a supernatural force split the veil of their temple, now open to reveal its secrets. When Mary Magdalene came the following day to perform the ritual for the dead, the tomb was empty, and its entrance was wide open. Jesus’ appearance three days later in front of his apostles was probably the most successful miracle he produced in front of a crowd.

These personal accidents in Jesus’ life are perceived by Christians as acts of God to teach humans lessons in forgiveness and salvation. Divinity and eternity were revealed through Jesus’s resurrection, and from then on, Christians could find comfort in their God’s protection after death.²

Many people began to believe that Jesus’ resurrection had demonstrated he was the son of God the Father. Jesus’ new religious concept of repenting in the name of God was by baptism and belief in the Holy Trinity. This powerful commitment has lasted for 2,000 years.

Christianity changed the cross, an object of torture, into a sacred and beloved symbol. It became a sacred sign of hope, good luck, and ultimate salvation. The image of Christ dying on the cross became the most beloved icon of suffering. The effects of this accident proved to be the single most determining factor in shaping the future Western world.

For the next 300 years, Christians were persecuted and executed in the gladiatorial circuses. Faith in Jesus divided the Roman Empire into Christian and non-Christian populations, eroding the unity of a once great, powerful, three-continent-spanning society.

Soon, the new Christian era began counting its years with anno Domini, in the year of the Lord. It was the triumph of humble Jesus, who lived only 33 years, had no wealth, political power or army, but whose preaching conquered Rome and Europe. Ironically, with its saints painted or made into statues, Christianity reintroduced families of near-gods, replacing the family of the Roman gods. The Pantheon lived on.

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Humans need a god and religion to survive, find divine help during their terrestrial life, and negotiate eternity beyond the grave. Religion provides a dogmatic approach to pleasing god and studying his power, and it requires piety. Belief in God may be a choice, but faith is a permanent condition of human existence. The following are important dogmas.

Faith – without it, nothing leads to anything, and existence is reduced to a hopeless situation. However, blind faith does not save someone from burning in a fire. Dealing with uncertainty in life leads to fate. The effect is destiny, or the present course of events in one’s life. It is said that faith can move mountains, but in practice, faith ranks below knowledge and above opinion, and it is based on blind trust in divine justice. It is an extraordinary moving force, motivating us to struggle to beat the odds and succeed in spite of accidents and their effects. Miracles, though difficult to understand, often seem to prove the value of having faith, especially if we are the beneficiaries. Faith is the open door to anything, including to God!

Fear is the second ingredient of any religion, for it