A Blueprint For Achieving Net-Zero CO2 Emissions: The Difficult Road for the US to Achieve Net-Zero CO2 Emissions by 2050

By Robert Prince

The author proposes a "workable" pathway for the US to achieve net zero CO2 emissions from the transportation and electrical power sectors of the US by 2050. The intent is to describe in straightforward terms what it will take to achieve such a goal. Providing basic background information on the measures necessary to transition from a fossil-fuel-based power source to one based on renewables will provide the reader insight to the enormity of this goal.

The author attempts to outline the major hurdles facing the US in reducing CO2 emissions. Hurdles to achieving this goal are clearly presented to allow readers to put into perspective what this transition entails and the significant obstacles that must be overcome to achieve net zero. The book highlights the difficulty of this task and clearly states that achieving net zero for the US by 2050 is highly unlikely.

The author then applies the same logic on a limited scale to describe the difficulty of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions on a worldwide basis. Applying the same logic used for the US analysis with regard to the retirement of coal-fired and natural gas-fired electrical generation capacity demonstrates the difficult path the world faces regarding climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. The book concludes with a bleak scenario of what the world faces with regard to climate change.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Christian Faith Publishing, Inc.
• Release date: Nov 22, 2023
• ISBN: 9798889433439

Book preview

cover.jpg

A Blueprint For Achieving Net-Zero CO2 Emissions

The Difficult Road for the US to Achieve Net-Zero CO2 Emissions by 2050

Robert Prince

ISBN 979-8-88943-344-6 (hardcover)

ISBN 979-8-88943-343-9 (digital)

Copyright © 2023 by Robert Prince

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods without the prior written permission of the publisher. For permission requests, solicit the publisher via the address below.

Christian Faith Publishing

832 Park Avenue

Meadville, PA 16335

www.christianfaithpublishing.com

Printed in the United States of America

Table of Contents

Prologue

Chapter 1

Introduction

Chapter 2

Sources and Measurement of Carbon Emissions

Global warming potential values

Global atmospheric temperature reduction goal

Measuring carbon dioxide emissions

Carbon dioxide emissions

Electric power section CO2 emissions

Transportation section CO2 emissions

Current status of US carbon emissions

Global atmospheric computer codes

Chapter 3

Basic Electrical Power Generation Terms

Basic electrical power generation terms

Electrical output

Capacity factor

Maintaining grid stability

Chapter 4

Carbon-Free Electrical Generation Sources

Introduction

Life cycle analysis

Solar farms

Wind farms

Nuclear power plants

Land usage—footprint

Nuclear plants

Solar farms

Wind farms

Comparing the advantages and disadvantages of carbon-free energy sources

Lithium-ion battery storage systems

Hydrogen fuel cells

Chapter 5

Postulated Steps to Achieve Net Zero (Where the Rubber Meets the Road)

Potential reductions—scenario 1

Transportation sector reductions

Electrical generation sector reductions

Carbon dioxide absorption by trees (reforestation)

Potential reductions—scenario 2

Other considerations—practically speaking

Nuclear power's role in carbon-free electrical generation

Displaced carbon by generation type

Small modular reactors

Final considerations

Chapter 6

Developing an Action Plan to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The must dos

Retirement of coal-fired power plants

Retirement of natural gas–fired power plants

Develop and expand domestic manufacturing infrastructure for carbon-free energy sources

Increase electrical vehicle percentage to 50 percent

Place small modular reactors in service

Strengthen fuel economy vehicle standards

Establish high-speed electric rail corridors

Develop infrastructure to support expanded use of hydrogen fuel cells

Carbon capture and storage

Reforestation

Conservation measures

Final considerations

Chapter 7

Global Snapshot—from the Pot into the Fire

Global challenges in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the electrical generation sector

Worldwide coal-fired electrical generation capacity

The elephant in the room—world population growth

Final thoughts

Chapter 8

Dispelling the Nonscience of Nuclear Waste Disposal; Separating Fact from Fiction

Separating Fact from Fiction

Dissecting the perceived problem of radioactive waste disposal

The nuclear fuel cycle

Reprocessing of used nuclear fuel

Radiotoxicity of radioactive waste

Final considerations

Epilogue: The Future of All Life on Earth Is in Our Hands

The Future of All Life on Earth Is in Our Hands

Appendix A: Units of Radiation Measurement and Typical Sources of Radiation Exposure

Units of Radiation Measurement and Typical Sources of Radiation Exposure

Appendix B: Converting Mass into Energy

Converting Mass into Energy

Additional Reading Material

Chapter 2: Sources and Measurement of Carbon Emissions

Chapter 3: Basic Electrical Power Generation Terms

Chapter 4: Carbon-Free Energy Sources

Chapter 5: Postulated Steps to Achieve Net Zero (Where the Rubber Meets the Road)

Chapter 6: Developing an Action Plan to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Chapter 8: Dispelling the Nonscience of Nuclear Waste Disposal—Separating Fact from Fiction

Notes

Chapter 1: Introduction

Index

About the Author

Chapter 2: Sources and Measurement of Carbon Emissions

Chapter 3: Basic Electrical Power Generation Terms

Chapter 4: Carbon-Free Electrical Generation Sources

Chapter 5: Postulated Steps to Achieve Net Zero (Where the Rubber Meets the Road)

Chapter 6: Developing an Action Plan to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Chapter 7: Global Snapshot—from the Pot into the Fire

Chapter 8: Dispelling the Nonscience of Nuclear Waste Disposal; Separating Fact from Fiction

Epilogue

Prologue

This book is an expansion and update of my previous book entitled The Role of Nuclear Power in Climate Change. Most of that material has been included here with continued emphasis on the role that nuclear power will have to play for the US to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions at some point in the future.

What spurred the need to expand the subject content is the appalling approach that many politicians in the US are advocating toward achieving this goal. The poster child for this unworkable approach is the so-called new green deal. Apparently, many policy makers believe that by simply switching off fossil fuels and hooking up a bunch of wind turbines and solar panels to the electrical grid can magically transition an electrical power system to renewable energy. It's just that simple—by magic!

Many politicians apparently believe that simply mandating a switchover to an all-electric fleet of vehicles will also solve the problem. They conveniently neglect to mention the fact that this transition will require thousands of megawatts of additional electrical generation. No viable plan has been offered to date by policy makers to detail a timeline and road map to replace the existing coal- and gas-fired power generation plants with renewable energy sources. The same can be said for the installation of the additional power sources required to support electric vehicles. This additional generation capacity will most likely consist of a large percentage of natural gas–fired CO2 emitting generation units.

A detailed workable plan will be an absolute necessity if the US is to achieve net zero with a minimum of chaos. This will require a well-thought-out and comprehensive coordinated effort expanding a period of twenty to thirty years, perhaps longer. This does not bode well for a country whose leaders do not plan past the next election cycle.

Transitioning to renewable energy sources will require an effort comparable to that in wartime. The resources and effort required to transition from a grid system designed to handle input from large baseload electrical generation stations to relatively more numerous and smaller generation units will be tremendous. Unfortunately, many attributes of the current electrical generation and transmission systems and the existing infrastructure will have to be updated and reconfigured to afford a smooth transition to renewable energy sources without unduly impacting our economy and our daily lives.

The renewable energy sources envisioned to come online during the transition period will consist primarily of wind and solar power; extensive backup energy facilities will have to be constructed. Since the availability of both wind and solar power depends on the whims of Mother Nature, power from these generation units will be intermittent. Additionally, what happens when an Atlantic Coast hurricane disables thousands of megawatts of offshore wind power or there is prolonged sunless periods or extensive storm damage to solar facilities?

Backup carbon-free generation facilities will have to be built concurrent with the expansion of these forms of renewable energy. Likely a large percentage of these backup power facilities will consist of large arrays of lithium batteries. Even though the US has large deposits of lithium ore, current domestic mining capacity is limited. Where does the US obtain the necessary lithium ore, and when will the necessary domestic lithium-processing plants be available to convert the lithium into the necessary chemical forms used in lithium batteries? Currently the US is totally dependent on foreign sources of both the raw lithium ore and the conversion of this ore to forms suitable for use in batteries. The so-called climate change task force and political leaders that are spearheading the immediate elimination of fossil fuels seem to be oblivious to these issues.

Little attention has been given to the fact that the acquisition of raw materials and the fabrication and construction of the vast arrays of solar farms and wind turbines that will be required to replace coal-fired and natural gas–fired electrical generation facilities will require enormous amounts of energy. A long-range plan detailing the coordination of the retirement of fossil fuel–fired plants while bringing renewable energy facilities into service will be paramount.

So what differentiates this book from the hundreds of other books dealing with climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? The science associated with climate change is complex and involves a host of complicated and diverse parameters, subjects that are beyond my area of expertise. The aim is not to bombard the reader with overly complex computer models of what the future may entail or graphical presentations to dazzle and confuse the reader.

Rather the intent is to address the importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to obtain net-zero status in the US by 2050 in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendations. The subject matter is presented in straightforward terms dealing with the heart of the issue. Instead of sidestepping the topic, an attempt to detail the herculean effort it will take to reach IPCC goals in a straightforward manner is presented. Society has two options to consider. Namely, society can either deal with the issue and commit to what it will take or continue to stumble along hoping for the best. The technology and know-how are at our disposal if our government and policy makers are prepared to implement the necessary actions.

Various scenarios are put forth, notwithstanding that they may be open for debate and that the assumptions that they are built on may be open to interpretation. The intent is to spell out in no uncertain terms the precarious position facing the US. All the doomsday reports and all the computer models aside do not provide the working details or specific measures that must be implemented to achieve net zero. The picture is not pretty, and the effort required to obtain net zero will be tremendous. Therefore, the author has attempted to detail the measures required to put the US on a path to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Background material to support understanding of the issue is presented in straightforward terms. Extended coverage of the role of nuclear power is presented since that is my area of expertise and the fact that expanded use of nuclear power will be essential in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Hopefully this material may alleviate the unnecessary fears many individuals have concerning the use of nuclear power. The continual barrage of junk science and editorials aimed at the nuclear power industry must be countered to fully utilize this vital resource. It is incomprehensible that the same people who are losing sleep over the future impact of climate change can, at the same time, marginalize a technology that can help—and help significantly—in the fight against rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

The main premise of this book assumes that, if carbon dioxide emissions and global warming poses potential catastrophic consequences, it is time to get down to business and develop and implement those necessary measures to achieve net zero. That means no coal, and it also means no natural gas. That probably comes as a shock to many. Unfortunately, our country is led by policy makers more intent on being reelected than dealing with the real issues confronting our country and the world today. Most of our lawmakers are incapable of understanding an issue of this nature and scope. In a word, they are clueless.

If the pundits are right, the time for action is running out. Can a do-nothing congress act in time? A congress populated by nontechnical bureaucrats, as demonstrated time and time again, more intent on infighting than tackling tough issues. If the recent past is any indication, then lack of action will be the norm. Some countries may be successful in addressing carbon dioxide emission reductions. The verdict for the USA is uncertain. Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel? The major unknown is, how much havoc will take place before the tide is turned, especially if net zero is not achieved by 2050, which appears to be the road the US is heading down?

Chapter 1

Introduction

Whether you believe that climate change is a pending catastrophic event or not, you cannot help but be overwhelmed by daily headlines forecasting a constant stream of dire consequences about to ravish the planet. Headlines like the following seem to appear daily:

Scientists Say that Drastic Action Must Be Taken to Avert the Effects of Global Warming

Countless Species Are at Risk of Extinction Due to Climate Change

Millions Will Have to Be Evacuated from Low-Lying Areas Due to Rising Sea Levels

The Rate of Sea-Level Rise Is Lower [or was that higher?] than Previously Forecasted

Time Is Running Out to Divert Catastrophic Doom

Climate Change Could Spark the Next Mass Migration¹

Paraphrasing the dialogue from the movie Ghostbusters:

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes and volcanoes. The dead rising from the grave!

Is it time to buckle our seat belts or throw in the towel?

So which is it? Are the seas about to boil, or is this much to do about nothing? I freely admit that I am not sure what science to believe. In fact, it is hard to distinguish what qualifies as good science these days. Articles appear almost daily, claiming to be based on sound scientific fact when, in actuality, the articles have not undergone rigorous peer review prior to publication. There is no set standard regarding what type or extent of peer review must be performed before accepting a technical or scientific paper for publication in one of the many magazine journals available or before the article pops up on a given website.

Numerous complex mechanisms contribute to our current situation as it pertains to climate change. However, the topic of concern is, if carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are a primary cause of climate change, it is urgent to expand the use of all the carbon-free sources of energy at our disposal. All these sources will have to play a role in achieving net zero. Reliance on just wind and solar power will not be sufficient.

This book is directed toward those who wish to gain a better understanding of the contribution that the transportation sector and electrical power generation industry play with regard to CO2 emissions in the US. A general overview of carbon-free energy sources is presented so that readers can evaluate what role these sources may play in reducing CO2 emissions while providing the necessary power to support an industrialized, modern economy. Specifically, the role these energy sources play in meeting the energy needs for the transportation and electrical generation sectors is presented.

The various topics discussed include the major areas associated with transitioning to a net-zero carbon dioxide emissions–free state for the US by 2050. The subject depth is presented in general terms describing the major factors that are instrumental in achieving net zero by 2050. Key concepts are presented in sufficient detail to provide an understanding of the role that various industries and energy sources play with regard to CO2 emissions. To better understand the role of nuclear power in this endeavor, technical topics are addressed but, at a level, not requiring any prior knowledge of the subject matter. Readers will not be overwhelmed by technical details concerning computer models that are used to forecast changes in atmospheric temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Put your mind at ease. The intent is not to get bogged down in the details of these models or the complexity of the calculations that are involved with making climate change projections. Numerous climate change models are in use today, but the details of that complex scientific endeavor are left to those experts who are intimately knowledgeable of the various models.

Measures that could be taken to reduce CO2 emissions associated with the US transportation and electrical power generation sectors are presented. These two sectors contribute most of the CO2 emissions from the US. The use of fossil fuels, most notably coal for electrical generation, is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions both domestically and globally. The transportation sector is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions in the US today, and therefore, this topic will be presented in some detail.

Emissions stemming from passenger cars, heavy-duty trucks, oceangoing cargo vessels, and, to a lesser extent, the airline industry will be addressed. Obviously, there are other carbon dioxide–emitting sources that need to be reduced to curb emissions, but those topics are beyond the scope of this book and are left to more knowledgeable professionals to address. Hopefully, someone will figure out a way to develop carbon-capture techniques to minimize emissions from those nasty cows that have the gall to graze on pastureland and just flatulate at will.

A primary objective is to put some logic into the debate and hopefully lay out in plain language the magnitude of the challenge facing the US. What does logic have to do with anything? Even though there are countless nongovernment organizations, agencies, firms, individuals, and research groups providing valuable data concerning greenhouse gas emissions and the possible environmental consequences of these emissions, the approach, at best, has been fragmented. Notwithstanding the efforts of the UN and the IPCC and other organizations and agencies, steps taken to address the issue of climate change both domestically and on a global scale have been dismal.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, at the Davos World Economic Forum in January 2020 was quoted as saying, The big eye-opener was when last year I read IPCC report. I tell you, I could not sleep that night. She went on to speculate about the world that we may be leaving for her granddaughter. She is probably not the only person who has had sleepless nights worrying about the effects of climate change and the world we may be leaving to our children and grandchildren.

It is not the intent of the author to sway readers' opinions about climate change. Rather the intent is to provide a balanced approach about the roles that renewable energy sources, along with nuclear power, will have in reducing CO2 emissions. Additionally, readers will be afforded insight to dispel prevailing misconceptions associated with the use of nuclear power—misconceptions which, if used to further demonize this technology, will have us fighting this war with one arm tied behind our backs. Dealing with high-level radioactive waste is discussed in detail, a subject fraught with so much bad science an entire book could be written on that subject alone. So if the disposal of radioactive waste is the Achilles' heel concerning the lack of support for nuclear power, then it is necessary to separate fact from fiction.

The Fukushima Daiichi accident is a prime example of the distorted fear that most people have concerning nuclear power. Mention the Great East Japan Earthquake, and most people will not know what you are talking about. This was the earthquake that resulted in damaging the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units. The way the press presented the situation, one would think that the damage to the nuclear plant caused the earthquake. Approximately 18,500 people died or disappeared as a result of the quake and tsunami. Not one person died from the radiological aspects associated with the damaged reactors. Yes, the ongoing environmental cleanup is expensive and will require years to complete, but foregoing nuclear power based on a natural disaster of that magnitude is foolhardy.

Consider the fact that countries, such as Germany, that has an excellent nuclear power plant program is in the process of retiring this carbon-free energy source because of the Great East Japan Earthquake. However, the lignite-fired electrical generation plants will continue to operate in Germany, causing untold numbers of premature deaths while adding to the global carbon footprint. What is the rationale for a country like Germany to retire all their carbon-free nuclear plants by the end of 2022 while CO2-emitting coal plants are allowed to continue in operation a decade longer?

Likewise, Belgium plans to shut down all seven of its operating nuclear plants by 2025. Would it make more sense to maintain some of the nuclear units in service for a while longer and retire a comparable number of coal- or natural gas–fired plants earlier? Meanwhile in the US, commercial nuclear power is on life support. Vogtle Unit 3 is scheduled to commence commercial operation in 2023. This is the first new nuclear unit built in the US in over three decades. These are examples of the challenges that all countries are facing in reducing CO2 emissions. Politics and science just do not mix well.

To truly achieve the massive necessary reductions in CO2 emissions while providing the energy needed to support industrial production and a surging global population will require more than a few wind turbines sitting in your neighbor's backyard or solar panels stretching from New York to Los Angeles. Our industrial strength has been based on reliable baseload electric power generation—dependable generation that cannot be fully provided by limited, unreliable wind or solar power facilities, at least based on current technology.

Even though the material presented here primarily focuses on those measures that the US must take to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the parameters involved and the actions that must be taken may be applicable to many other countries as well. Since CO2 emissions and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in general are a global issue, it is important to gain some insight into the overall magnitude of the problem facing the world. Carbon dioxide emissions from other major emitters are also discussed to some degree in chapter 7.

While researching material for this book and drafting the manuscript, the author came across numerous publications and sources of information. Oftentimes, depending on the source of the information, differences in such figures as the following could be encountered in various publications:

The amount of CO2 emissions emitted from a given source

Annual CO2 emission amounts

Future projections of electrical power contributions from a given power source

The date when certain greenhouse gas emission reduction technologies would be available

Numerical values presented for such parameters as the megawatt capacity for renewable energy facilities and projected emissions are particularly susceptible to different figures found in the literature. Forecasting the contribution and availability of carbon-free energy sources should focus more on the magnitude of the effort required versus how much solar power may be contributing to electrical generation in the year 2038, for example. Depending on the assumptions one wishes to apply, US offshore wind power may be available earlier than projected here. New nuclear power units may be on the scene earlier or later, or not at all; and electric cars may represent 10 percent, 50 percent, or 100 percent of light vehicles on the road come 2050.

Rather than debating the accuracy of the projections or validity of assumptions used in the various discussions, the intent of the author is to emphasize the hurdle facing the US in reducing CO2 emissions to achieve net zero. The author believes that a credible projection based on today's supporting infrastructure, technological innovations, and political environment has been presented that spells out the dire situation the US is facing as a nation and on a worldwide basis. Perhaps the amount of wind and solar generation capacity available to retire the fleet of coal-fired plants, as postulated here, is off by a few years. Even so, it will not have a meaningful impact on climate changes forecasted for 2050 and beyond based on projected CO2 emissions.

Calculations are presented at key points to show how a particular figure or value was determined. The author believes that it is important for readers to