The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Scenarios for South Africa's Uncertain Future

By Ray Hartley, Greg Mills and Mills Soko

South Africa is facing an extraordinary ‘polycrisis’. The dimensions of this crisis include an energy collapse; a failing rail network; weak education outcomes; an interrupted water supply; and the effects of decades of endemic corruption that have brought much of government to a halt.

But the country also has incredible assets: a wealth of sought-after minerals; an enviable Constitution that protects rights and advocates social inclusion; an advanced financial and services sector; thriving agricultural and auto industries that compete with the best in the world; a prosecution service that is rapidly rebuilding; and, most of all, strong-willed people determined to make life better through hard work, entrepreneurship and hustling.

The choice is stark: we either build on the positives and take the country forward or we will be overwhelmed by the negatives and end up as another Zimbabwe or Venezuela. We have the people, the policies and the resources. What is missing is the political will to make the difficult choices that will save South Africa from disaster.

This book takes you on a journey that ends with one of three possible future scenarios: the Good, the Bad or the Ugly. Compiled by The Brenthurst Foundation and In Transformation Initiative, and workshopped with high-powered leaders in business and politics, the scenarios have stimulated intense public interest as the country grapples with its mounting problems.

The good news is that there is a clear road towards a positive future. It will take courageous leadership and smart thinking to get there, but the ‘Good’ scenario is tantalisingly within grasp.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Pan Macmillan South Africa
• Release date: Aug 15, 2023
• ISBN: 9781770108837

Book preview

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The Good, the Bad

and the Ugly

Scenarios for South Africa’s Uncertain Future

Ray Hartley | Greg Mills | Mills Soko

MACMILLAN

First published in 2023 by

Pan Macmillan South Africa

Private Bag X19, Northlands

Johannesburg

2116

www.panmacmillan.co.za

isbn 978 1 77010 882 0

eisbn 978 1 77010 883 7

Text © 2023 Ray Hartley, Greg Mills, Mills Soko

Forewords © 2023 Thuli Madonsela, Roelf Meyer

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the publisher. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

Editing by Sally Hines

Proofreading by Judith Shier

Design and layout by Triple M Design

Cover design by mr design

Contents

Foreword by Thuli Madonsela

Foreword by Roelf Meyer

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

1 Introduction

2 Five Rules of the Game

3 The Big Unanswered Questions

4 The Fraught Global Context

5 Scenarios for South Africa

6 The Good: Grasping the Reform Nettle

7 The Bad: The Venezuela Option

8 The Ugly: The Slide Speeds Up

9 A Fistful of Cents: The Brazilian Model

10 Conclusion: Escaping to a Better South Africa

Foreword

Thuli Madonsela

South Africa is a country of paradoxes. It is a country that produces globally sought after professionals in the fields of finance, engineering and nursing, plus globally respected corporations, among others. Yet, it is a society that scores low in the global human development index, in addition to still having children learning in mud schools, unequal education infrastructure and a massive number of mid-primary school learners said to be unable to read for meaning. The country boasted a National Development Plan similar to and long before the global Sustainable Development Goals, yet it lags far behind similarly sized economies on the Global Competitiveness Index.

The country’s Constitution is globally celebrated as a blueprint for a good society. A good society, as understood by great philosophers and leaders including Plato, John Rawls and Nelson Mandela, is a well-­ordered society. Such society is just, fair to all and all have a say in how they are governed and generally accept the governing principles, yet the rule of law in South Africa is increasingly a challenge. Thirty years since declaring a departure from its legalised racial stratification and divisive past, South Africa would be a top contender if there were a world dysphoria award.

The mismatch between where the country seeks to go and where it has landed, with the likelihood of falling deeper into the abyss, would be eliminated if there was a foresight lens that could give the people and public policy-makers a glimpse into the future and the impact of their decisions in relation to such. Imagine having 2020 vision foresight instead of the normal hindsight. That is what scenario planning endeavours to do. Though not as accurate as natural science, working and planning with scenarios provide a glimpse into how the future might unfold if a certain mix of leadership and factors in the field of possibility, including improbable but possible factors, coalesce.

The scenarios presented in this book are a gift to South Africa of a foresight lens on what the future holds if different political choices are made and the interplay with anticipated domestic and global ecosystem factors is considered. Based on systems thinking and appreciating complexity, the scenarios are primarily based on political permutations likely to flow from the 2024 elections and consequent policy choices. Some of them are frightening. However, foresight of possible ‘ugly’ futures can incentivise carefully considered decisions about leaders and policies, including pivoting to better align choices with desired scenarios.

The book highlights the importance of determining very clearly what a good South Africa looks like and, in this regard, aptly quotes George Harrison’s aphorism: ‘If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there.’

The book notes the Zondo Commission’s report on state capture, detailing what went wrong regarding the integrity dimension of public governance and what we need to do to fix corruption. It is more than a year since Chief Justice Ramond Zondo delivered his final state capture report, but we are yet to see substantive progress regarding the implementation of its recommendations.

By now, parliament should have held its members who were implicated in state capture accountable. There could be written new rules that prevent the civil service from being used for enrichment and to consolidate its professionalisation to serve all competently and impartially, while driving societal transformation as envisaged in the Constitution. An unequivocal message should be sent to society, indicating that corruption will not be tolerated by ensuring that implicated persons are prosecuted speedily and competently without fear or favour.

What is certain is that without an engaged and active civil society, the country will not move forward. Without harnessing all the best skills and logistics available, energy and infrastructure problems will not be resolved. Without unlocking value among citizens, particularly the youth, and innovation, we will miss out on societal renewal and shared prosperity.

At the heart of our actions must be a commitment to recapturing the constitutional vision of our society, through fostering the ethical and competent state envisaged in the Constitution, particularly Section 195, thereof. That requires the people to be clear about the society they want and ensure that they elect leaders who are ethical, act purposefully to deliver that society by being impact conscious in respect of all their actions on the country, its people and the environment, and demonstrably committed to serve all justly and fairly.

It is time for the people to claim their agency and not allow themselves to be voting fodder lured by transient promises or gifts that will not free their potential, improve the quality of their lives and heal the divisions of the past, as envisaged in the Constitution.

Every law or regulation that is promulgated must be interrogated with the question: does this take us to the society envisaged in the Constitution, which includes extending freedom from want and opportunity to enable all to operate equitably at all levels of the economy and society, thus fostering shared prosperity?

Ultimately, the scenarios give us a glimpse into possible futures from which we must choose. The call is for all to exercise political will to bend the future towards the South Africa we want. In my view, anything other than re-anchoring good governance in constitutional governance, based on the constitutional blueprint, will not give us the peace, stability and freedom from the dysphoria we desperately need. A worthy read indeed.

Stellenbosch

July 2023

Foreword

Roelf Meyer

I can talk about the power of scenarios first hand. During the late 1980s, as the tug of war between the ‘reformers’ and the ‘hardliners’ within my party, the National Party, raged on, there was a danger that the country would take a wrong turn and turn its back on the opportunity to negotiate.

It was at that time that Clem Sunter released his ‘High Road, Low Road’ scenarios for the future of South Africa. We were fortunate to be among those to hear his presentation, ‘The World and South Africa in the 1990s’.

His scenarios made the choices that we faced real. We could clearly see how a negotiated political settlement would create the opportunity for South Africa to move away from violent confrontation and towards a future where there was the possibility of growth and development.

On the other hand, he mapped out how ‘The Low Road’ would lead to greater confrontation, civil war and a wasteland where there would be no winners.

The scenarios played no small role in cementing the consensus that we must take ‘The High Road’, knowing there would be political consequences – including a likely end to the rule of our party – because the alternative was so dire.

The constitutional talks and the political settlement as well as the transition to the inclusion of all in a democracy created the opportunity for us to move forward. But it is now clear we have not made the most of that opportunity.

Some three decades after our first inclusive election, we are facing serious economic challenges, with major problems in our state-owned enterprises. Insufficient electricity generation and declining rail capacity are causing economic difficulties.

We are also struggling to deliver a sustainably better life for all as government capacity weakens and private sector investment stays away.

The crisis is all around. Our economy is woefully failing to create jobs and the majority of young people have no future in the world of work, bereft of suitable skills and lacking opportunities. Electricity supply is precarious to the extent that we have invented a term – ‘loadshedding’ – to explain its devastating frequency. Our foreign relations are misaligned with the interests of our largest trade and investment partners, and unfocused on Africa.

Crime – especially violent crime such as murder and armed robbery – is on the rise and we are starting to see the mafia-style extortion of businesses.

On top of this, the country’s political leadership is in turmoil. President Cyril Ramaphosa, once believed to be the person to finally lead South Africa out of the darkness of state capture, corruption and economic failure, has struggled to turn things around. In addition, the way South Africa has handled the war on Ukraine has raised tensions among long-term friends of democratic South Africa.

All of this has created a climate of extreme uncertainty. Where is the country going? Is the economy doomed to failure as Eskom switches off the lights? What will happen if the 2024 election fails to produce an outright winner? What are the choices available to South Africa’s leaders and its citizens alike?

There is a general sense among the electorate that we are losing our way.

It was against this background that, representing the In Transformation Initiative, I became involved in the development of the scenarios outlined in this book, along with The Brenthurst Foundation.

It was, once again, an eye-opening experience, as we tried to lay bare where the country would go, depending on the choices made by leaders, citizens and political parties.

We are, once more, at a fork in the road. Make the right decisions and we can return to the track we veered off a decade ago – one where there is inclusive economic growth and a people’s economy that creates the jobs we so desperately need.

Make the wrong decisions and we are heading for failure. This time around, it is not the spectre of political violence that looms large, but rather that of a Venezuela or Zimbabwe-style failing state, where there is social unrest and growing poverty as rule by the law is replaced by the rule of powerful political mafias.

Fortunately, South Africans are, as ever, sensible and want to solve our problems. Our fieldwork indicates a different political dispensation is evolving, ushering in a new era of multi-party contestation after three decades of single-party dominance.

The message is a simple one: the people want their leaders to recognise that there is a serious national emergency and to start working together to fix it instead of squabbling. They are tired of being fed old ideologies. They want rational policies to be adopted by a sensible government that is laser-focused on getting us out of this crisis.

What is clear is that there is no one party or leader capable of solving this crisis on their own. We need each other more than ever.

There has been much talk about coalitions and whether or not they will work. Rather than focusing on the minutiae of coalitions, we need to focus on building a united, powerful centre in South African politics that can make the rational decisions needed and that can see to it they are implemented.

A lot hangs on the coherence of those at the centre, on whether those who favour constitutionalism and the rule of law are able to suspend hostilities and band together to save South Africa. This is no time for old ideologies and opportunists. What is needed is a return to the solid, foundational values of democratic South Africa: the rule of law, openness and accountability, and a focus on fixing our problems rather than generating more chaos.

This goes beyond party politics. It requires all those in civil society and the private sector, as well as the majority of South Africans who hold these values dear, to come together to bring about renewal and reform.

Based on research into the country’s economic position, the positioning of political forces and the attitudes of South African voters, our three scenarios – The Good, The Bad and The Ugly – attempt to draw fact-based conclusions about the country’s trajectory.

Let us not forget that no South African is a