Narrowing the Development Gap: Follow-Up Monitor of the ASEAN Framework for Equitable Economic Development

By Asian Development Bank

This report uses a broad range of indicators to assess the individual and collective development progress made by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Building on a previous study released in 2014, it assesses 39 indicators that consider dimensions such as overall human development, gender equality, climate change, and living conditions. The report intends to help policy makers pinpoint priority development interventions and to align strategies to support regional recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the need for the 10 ASEAN member states to increase investments in areas such as skills development, education, health, and nutrition.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Asian Development Bank
• Release date: May 1, 2023
• ISBN: 9789292701277

Book preview

REINVIGORATING FINANCING APPROACHES FOR SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE IN ASEAN+3

MAY 2023

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

© 2023 Asian Development Bank

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Some rights reserved. Published in 2023.

ISBN 978-92-9270-126-0 (print); 978-92-9270-127-7 (electronic); 978-92-9270-128-4 (ebook)

Publication Stock No. SPR230141-2

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR230141-2

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Notes:

1. In this publication, $ refers to United States dollars, € refers to euro, ¥ refers to yen, A$ refers to Australian dollars, B refers to baht, Rp refers to rupiah, RM refers to ringgit, and S$ refers to Singapore dollars.

2. ADB recognizes Bombay as Mumbai, China as the People’s Republic of China, and Hong Kong and Hongkong as Hong Kong, China.

Cover design by S. Patra

Photo credits: ID 124209187 © Panimoni | Dreamstime.com; ID 265471882 © 3djuuuice | Dreamstime.com; ID 250458897 © VectorMine | Dreamstime.com

CONTENTS

TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES

FOREWORD

In the region defined by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN+3), infrastructure development, supported by traditional sources of financing such as government revenue and debt financing, has been a key pillar of economic growth and development over the past 5 decades. Institutional partners, including multilateral development banks such as the Asian Development Bank, have supported the economic transformation of the ASEAN+3 region from being mostly agricultural economies in the early 1970s to becoming some of the most active export manufacturers and fastest growing economies in the world today. Between 1970 and 2020, loans and grants from the Asian Development Bank to Southeast Asian economies amounted to $107 billion, with bilateral and multilateral donors, trust funds, and other partners contributing about $26.9 billion in sovereign co-financing during the same period.

As the ASEAN+3 region emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure demand will only continue to grow as economies look to address the gaps in healthcare, education, digital, and social infrastructure exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic; and to rebuild in a more sustainable and inclusive manner in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals. At the same time, the region will have to address the increasingly devastating effects of climate change, while striking the right balance between addressing energy transition needs and continued economic transformation. It is clear that the widening infrastructure financing gap can no longer be met by traditional sources of financing. There is, hence, a pressing need to identify new ways to encourage greater private sector participation in financing infrastructure development in the region, which has thus far been limited to the traditional models of public–private partnerships.

This report systematically presents various innovative models of merging public, private, institutional, and other forms of capital to deliver resilient, sustainable, and future-ready infrastructure in the ASEAN+3 region. From blended finance and asset securitization to municipal and green bonds, and from crowd finance to carbon credit markets, the report examines how innovative finance can become a magnet for the private and institutional funds needed to back public–private infrastructure partnerships. It summarizes critical success factors from actual case studies, from within and outside the ASEAN+3 region, that can be adapted, replicated, and upscaled in the ASEAN+3 context for successful implementation. If done well, these solutions can turn large, lofty, and complex designs into doable, bankable investments that are sustainable, inclusive, and climate friendly.

However, more work remains to be done: our task is not just to build infrastructure quickly, but to build infrastructure that is resilient, sustainable, and future-ready. Therefore, we must unite to strengthen the infrastructure financing ecosystem and forge new partnerships to build a greener, more sustainable, and inclusive future for our children and successive generations.

Ahmed Muneeb Saeed

Vice-President (Operations 2) for East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific

Asian Development Bank

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This publication was prepared by the Regional Cooperation and Operations Coordination Division (SERC) of the Southeast Asia Department (SERD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It was financed by ADB under the Knowledge and Support Technical Assistance (TA)-9964 Policy Advice for COVID-19 Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia.

This report was written by Kewal Thapar and James Villafuerte. The authors are grateful for PwC Singapore and all members of the ASEAN+3 Finance Process, in particular members of the ASEAN+3 Working Group on Infrastructure Finance—Ministry of Finance, Government of the People’s Republic of China; People’s Bank of China; Hong Kong Monetary Authority; Ministry of Finance, Government of Indonesia; Ministry of Finance, Government of Japan; Ministry of Economy and Finance, Government of the Republic of Korea; Department of Finance, Government of the Philippines; Ministry of Finance, Government of Singapore; and Bank of Thailand—for their contributions to this report, in particular through the provision of valuable case studies.

James Villafuerte, principal economist and Dulce Zara, senior regional cooperation officer of SERC led the preparation of this report under the supervision of Alfredo Perdiguero, director of SERC. Mae Hyacinth Kiocho and Joyce Marie Lagac provided technical support, while Melissa May Ebarvia extended administrative assistance.

The authors are also grateful for the valuable comments and suggestions from all peer reviewers from ADB’s Macroeconomics Research Division, Office of the Chief Economist and Director General, Regional Cooperation and Integration Division of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department; Office of Public–Private Partnership; Private Sector Operations Department; and the Environment, Natural Resources, and Agriculture Division, Office of the Director General, and Thailand Resident Mission of the Southeast Asia Department; and Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department.

Shreemoyee Patra anchored the editing, typesetting, proofreading, and cover designing of the publication. ADB’s Support Division of the Department of Communications facilitated the publishing of this report.

ABBREVIATIONS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Infrastructure lays the foundation for economic development and growth. It supports the provision of goods and services that enhance the quality of life, enables businesses, and improves productivity. It underpins all vital aspects of economic activity and is the key to national prosperity in a competitive global environment. Underinvestment in infrastructure slows down the economy and subjects the society and businesses to higher levels of pecuniary and environmental stress. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic (2019–2021) led to a massive global supply chain disruption that brought the world economy to a grinding halt, in turn, initiating recessionary conditions.

Geopolitical tensions have since impacted food and energy security leading to inflationary trends, forcing governments to allocate substantial resources to alternate procurement patterns and social protection programs aimed at continuance of essential services and reducing vulnerability of its populations. Market volatility, financial contraction, and uncertain and unreliable supply chains coupled with the higher cost of capital (increased interest rates) have contributed to reduced investor appetite as viability and return on investment is suspect. There is, therefore, an urgent need to de-risk project financing and widen the investment funding pool by actively engaging with institutional investors and the private sector through the use of innovative financing mechanisms.

Despite country-level variations and global headwinds, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region has shown remarkable resilience, and is leading the economic recovery by being one of fastest growing regions in the world in 2022. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecasted that Southeast Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024. These figures are higher than the GDP growth rates of most developed world economies. Additionally, the inflation rate for Southeast Asia is expected to be moderate at 4.4% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, gradually returning to pre-pandemic averages. At present, Asia’s share of global GDP is over 45% while Europe and North America combined account for about 44%. With the reopening of the People’s Republic of China and the abatement of inflationary pressures, Asia is poised to be the growth engine of the global economy by increasing its share of global GDP to over 50% by 2030.

Rapid economic development, urbanization, and population growth in the region have resulted in an ever-widening gap between current spending and finances required to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure. In addition to current inflationary conditions, the COVID-19 pandemic, weather-related disasters, and adverse impacts of climate change have further exacerbated the demand for and the cost of developing sustainable infrastructure. Closing the infrastructure gap is critical for ASEAN plus the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN+3) to fulfill their commitments toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), improve competitiveness, and address environmental challenges.

According to ADB, developing Asia will need to invest $13.8 trillion or $1.7 trillion annually from 2023 to 2030 to sustain economic growth, reduce poverty, and respond to climate change (climate-adjusted estimate). For ASEAN, the total infrastructure investment need is estimated at $2.8 trillion (baseline estimate) and $3.1 trillion (climate-adjusted estimate), placing the annual investment need at $184 billion and $210 billion, respectively. The infrastructure gap figures do not include the additional expenditure associated with disasters and extreme weather events that increasingly