How McGee and Associates Prevented War in Ukraine by Russian Invasion: A Study in Plausible Alternatives, McGee's Last Case

By Carl Douglass

How McGee and Associates Prevented War in Ukraine by Russian Invasion is a “what if? What would the world be like if Ukraine and the United States stopped Russia in its tracks with courage and determination before the Great Bear decimated Ukraine? What if President Sybil Norcroft-Daniels had said “No,” and meant it? What if she got every asset of the US and 47 other nations, McGee and his partners, and the best of the best special ops and cyber warriors involved before day one? What if she determined to bring down the Russian dictator who still-in his atrophied heart—was a shrewd and soulless communist apparatchik? The author can imagine such an outcome in vivid and gripping realism."

• Language: English
• Publisher: Publication Consultants
• Release date: Mar 1, 2023
• ISBN: 9781637471272

Carl Douglass

Author Carl Douglass desires to live to the century mark and to be still writing; his wife not so much. No matter whose desire wins out, they plan an entire life together and not go quietly into the night. Other than writing, their careers are in the past. Their lives focus on their children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.

Book preview

PROLOGUE

"This moment might be surreal were it not for the overt warning signs. The Kremlin built up Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders even as it issued maximalist demands and shut down diplomatic off-ramps. Long-term geopolitical trends—such as Ukraine’s decisive pivot to the West and Russia’s irredentism—shaped the contours of conflict. Meanwhile, the Biden administration progressively raised the alarm about the Kremlin’s likely course of action. But even if this conflict was foreseeable, that does not mean it was inevitable.

"After Ukraine became independent and forfeited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, the West could have loosened the purse strings to guarantee the country’s economic independence. After the 2004 Orange Revolution, the West could have embraced Ukraine’s Western aspirations, accelerated an EU Association Agreement and a NATO Membership Action Plan, and driven domestic transformation to shield Europe’s largest country from nascent Russian revanchism. After the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, the West could have invested in a strategic security partnership with Ukraine that would have made the costs of a Russian offensive prohibitively high. Yet none of this came to pass.

"Instead, for two decades, the U.S. entertained illusions about what might be accomplished with Russia, a reluctant partner, while remaining oblivious to opportunities in Ukraine, a far more willing one. In its relationship with Russia, the U.S. had limited prospects of achieving any objectives outside of arms control, whereas with Ukraine it might have successfully influenced regional development.

"The seed of this conflict was planted many years ago, across multiple Republican and Democratic administrations. But the Biden administration and its successors will own the geopolitical consequences of this war.

Undoubtedly, things could have been worse—one need only imagine a world where the former president was still in office. I acknowledge that the Biden administration reacted to the warning signs with consistently powerful statements about the U.S. commitment to the safety of U.S. citizens abroad, its resolve to defend NATO’s eastern flank, and Ukraine’s right to sovereignty, territorial integrity, and self-determination in the international system. The Biden administration also marshaled unity among U.S. allies, though it remains to be seen whether the promised sanctions and security measures will materialize

–Alex Cosh, Yes, The Ukraine War Could Have Been Prevented,

Maple Newsletter, May 19, 2022

Ukraine has a thirty-three-year history as a nation. Since breaking from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has wavered between the influences of Moscow and the West, surviving scandal and conflict with its democracy intact. But along the country’s eastern border with Russia, separatists backed by Moscow took control of two regions in 2014. Violence in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 14,000 people in the years since.

Background—Timeline

July 16, 1990: The Rada, the new Ukrainian parliament formed out of the previous Soviet legislature, voted to declare independence from the Soviet Union. Authorities recalled Ukrainian soldiers from other parts of the USSR and voted to shut down the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine.

August 24, 1991: Following a failed coup in Moscow, the Ukrainian parliament declared independence a second time on August 24, a date that is still celebrated as Ukraine’s official Independence Day.

December, 1991: Ukrainians voted to make their independence official by approving the declaration by a landslide 92% of votes in favor.

December 26, 1991: The Soviet Union officially dissolved.

1992: NATO allies contemplated adding central and Eastern European members for the first time. Ukraine formally established relations with the alliance, but it did not join formally. NATO’s secretary-general visited Kyiv, and Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk visited NATO headquarters in Brussels.

December, 1994: The collapse of the Soviet Union left Ukraine with the world’s third-largest nuclear stockpile. In the Budapest Memorandum treaty, Ukraine agreed to trade away its intercontinental ballistic missiles, warheads, and other nuclear infrastructure, and turned all its strategic nuclear arms over to Russia for destruction, in exchange for guarantees that the three other treaty signatories–the US, the UK, and Russia–will respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

1994 to 2004: In ten years as president, Leonid Kuchma helped transition Ukraine from a Soviet republic to a capitalist society, privatizing businesses and working to improve international economic opportunities.

2004: The presidential election pitted Kuchma’s incumbent party–led by his hand-picked successor, Viktor Yanukovych, and supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin–against a popular pro-democracy opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko.

In the final months of the campaign, Yushchenko fell mysteriously ill, became disfigured, and was confirmed by doctors to have been poisoned.

Yanukovych won the election amid accusations of rigging, and massive protests followed. Public outcry became known as the Orange Revolution. After a third vote, Yushchenko prevailed.

2008: Following efforts by Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to bring Ukraine into NATO, the two formally requested in January that Ukraine be granted a membership action plan, the first step in the process of joining the alliance.

US President George W. Bush supported Ukraine’s membership, but France and Germany opposed it after Russia voiced displeasure.

April, 2008: NATO responded with a compromise: It promised that Ukraine would one day be a member of the alliance but—conspicuously–did not offer a specific path or timeline for how to accomplish that lukewarm promise.

January 1, 2009: Gazprom–the state-owned Russian gas company–suddenly stopped pumping natural gas to Ukraine, following months of politically fraught negotiations over gas prices. Because Eastern and central European countries relied on pipelines through Ukraine to receive gas imports from Russia, the gas crisis quickly spread beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Under international pressure to resolve the crisis, Tymoshenko negotiated a new deal with Putin, and gas flows resumed on January 20. Much of Europe relied on Russian gas thereafter giving the bully nation strong leverage.

February, 2010: Yanukovych was elected president and promptly declared Ukraine to be a neutral state with equal cooperation with both Russia and Western alliances like NATO.

November 2013 through February 2014: Yanukovych announced that he would refuse to sign an association agreement with the European Union to bring Ukraine into a free trade agreement. He cited pressure from Russia as a reason for his decision. The announcement sparked huge protests throughout Ukraine–the largest since the Orange Revolution–calling for Yanukovych to resign. Protesters begin camping out in Kyiv’s Maidan [also known as Independence Square] and occupied government buildings, including Kyiv’s city hall and the justice ministry. In late February, violence between police and protesters left more than 100 dead in the single bloodiest week in Ukraine’s post-Soviet history.

Ahead of a scheduled impeachment vote on February 22, Yanukovych fled to Russia. Ukraine’s parliament voted unanimously to remove Yanukovych and to install an interim government, which announced that it would sign the EU agreement and voted to free Tymoshenko from prison. The new government charged Yanukovych with mass murder of the Maidan protesters and issued a warrant for his arrest.

Russia declared that the change in Ukraine’s government was an illegal coup. Almost immediately thereafter, armed men appeared at checkpoints and facilities in the Crimean Peninsula. Putin at first denied they are Russian soldiers but later admitted it.

March, 17, 2014: With Russian troops in control of the peninsula, the Crimean parliament in Simferopol, Ukraine, voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. A public referendum followed, with 97% of voters favoring secession.

March 18, 2014: Putin finalized the Russian annexation of Crimea with an announcement to the Russian parliament. In response, the US and its allies in Europe imposed sanctions on Russia. They have never recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It remains the only time that a European nation has used military force to seize the territory of another since World War II.

April, 2014: With 40,000 Russian troops gathered on Ukraine’s eastern border, violence broke out in Donbas–violence that continues to this day. Russian-supported separatist forces stormed government buildings in two eastern regions, Donetsk and Luhansk. They declared independence from Ukraine as the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. Neither of the two entities has been recognized internationally as part of Ukraine. Russia denied that its troops were on Ukrainian soil.

September 5, 2014: The Minsk, Belarus Accords attempted to end the war in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine between Ukraine and Russian-speaking separatists in the disputed areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Pro-Russian separatists held out for a measure of autonomy. Finally, representatives of Ukraine and Russian separatists agreed to a 12-part cease-fire deal.

Leaders from France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, and the two pro-Russian separatists–who held sway for a measure of autonomy–were present and issued a statement in support of the deal. It was endorsed by the U.N. Security Council.

US President Willets and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency had absolutely no confidence in anything Vladimir Putin said and were vindicated by everything he did. When Sybil Norcroft-Daniels was elected president, she carried on that no-confidence conviction in secret and instituted a top-secret, SCI program to keep the dictatorial president of Russia from achieving his totalitarian plans for hegemony against Ukraine.

CHAPTER

ONE

McGee was not himself after his release from Death Row of the federal penitentiary in Terra Haut, Indiana. He had a prison pallor and had lost nearly forty pounds during his two+ years in custody. The physical toll was severe; no one who knew him could miss the changes; the toll on his psyche by the stress was incalculable. He recognized that he was no longer an asset to his investigations firm in his present condition and would likely be a liability. He had a decision to make.

A week after his return to his own New York apartment and the resumption of what should have been a normal life, he was aware of signs of his having adapted/institutionalized to the imperatives of a sustained period of confinement. He found himself hesitating, even stopping before entering a room or opening a door and looking around for permission. He was aware that he was more emotionally detached, more self-isolating, and more socially withdrawn.

While in jail and prison–in order to avoid trouble—he often had to appear as if he had the potential for violence showing on his face and in his bodily positioning–so that no one would even think of him being harassed or being taken advantage of by other prisoners. He would never be able to rid himself of what he had had to do to keep himself safe. He knew he was very much capable of violence.

To survive and to keep his sanity, McGee—like many longer-term inmates eventually–had adjusted to the structures and behaviors in place. Now that he was released from captivity and his autonomy restored, he had to concentrate to refrain from institutionalized conduct. He was not quite sure that he was yet able to rely on himself. He was thinking of himself as a burden to his partners.

McGee had lived with the fear of being attacked or exploited for so long that he was aware that his incarceration had instilled a general distrust–a trait to which he had become so accustomed that he feared that he would never be able to develop trusting relationships with people. As part of his inmate’s way of protecting himself, he found himself tuning out his emotions in order to prevent reactions that could cause himself to look weak to other prisoners then or people on the street now.

For McGee, the best way to stay safe behind bars had been to withdraw from other prisoners and to avoid all gang members as completely as possible. In that sense, death row was ideal for him. However, inmates who engage in this method of self-preservation display what on the outside is clearly clinical depression: lethargy, flatness, limited behavior, etc. This acquired inability to trust was keeping him from ascending beyond imprisonment and adjusting to his former successful lifestyle outside of jail.

Caitlyn called it PTSD, Boss, you have got to snap out of this, do something, go someplace, get some help. You have PTSD whether you want to label it or not. I will find you a shrink if you don’t find one for yourself. Don’t come back to the office until you are back to being the old McGee.

And she started to cry, something McGee had never seen her do before. That resulted in him beginning to get treatment—on his own and with help. First, he had to deal with his emotions, especially his pervading sense of guilt. Caitlyn had talked to him in the morning; and by afternoon, he was ready to summon up his courage and to make the call he had been contemplating and dreading.

He bought a pre-paid mobile phone and installed only one number—that was the top secret number of Sybil Norcroft-Daniels, former DCIA and current President of the United States. He had only ever used the number before to talk to the Snow-Queen about top secret matters of national security. However, she had made it clear that he could contact her whenever there was a serious need, even a personal one. This was definitely one of those times.

He tapped in the number.

The president answered immediately, This is Snow Leopard, who is this?

McGee. Sybil, I need your help, your advice to be precise.

You have it. What can I do?

Thanks, I knew I could count on you. I need to see a Firm psychiatrist, and soon. That would be the only one I would be able to trust with what I have to say.

Done. Someone will call you later this afternoon. Hang on, my friend. You are going to get over this, and then, I am going to ask for a return of the favor.

I can hardly wait until I am back in good enough shape to even up the score a bit. Have a good day, Madam President. When I perk back up. I am yours.

Two hours later, McGee received a direct call to his burner phone from the seventh floor of the CIA building in Langley.

Yes.

Is this the man who is a friend of the former director?

Yes. Are you the doctor?

I am. Sounds like we should meet. How about say tomorrow noon, in the Woodstock Cafe, 117 South Main Street. It’s a few miles from The Farm—know the place?

I certainly know The Farm, and I’ll find the café.

See you then. I will be wearing a beret and a front buttoning sweater; so, I look professorial.

They met in the café at precisely noon.

McGee walked directly to the farthest rear table and greeted the middle-aged, tall, fit, man wearing a beret and front-buttoned dun colored sweater, which was out of place on the warm summer’s day and added ten years to his age.

I’m McGee, he said and reached out his hand.

Graham Connelly, the psychiatrist said and shook McGee’s hand warmly.

Nice place, McGee said.

A good place to eat and far enough from The Farm and HQ to avoid curiosity seekers. I have taken the liberty of ordering. Hope you don’t mind… and I hope you’re not a vegan.

I’m not a vegan, and I’m not picky.

The waitress brought two thick sandwiches and Diet Cokes to the table–the Bravo for Dr. Connelly, and the Club for McGee. The Bravo consisted of thick slices of turkey, bacon, sliced tomatoes, and cheddar cheese, with a chipotle spread, and the Club: bacon, turkey, ham, Swiss and Cheddar cheese, tomato, and pesto mayo, for McGee.

I think it better for us not to discuss business here, in Williamsburg, or in Langley. Loose lips sink ships and all that. We’ll take a little ride out to the countryside when we are done eating. We will be both private and secure which are plusses for both of us.

Except for minor chitchat and trivia, nothing of importance was shared during the meal. Langley is an unincorporated community in McLean in Fairfax County, Virginia, home to its headquarters, the George Bush Center for Intelligence a bedroom community for Washington, D.C., and a commuter town.

Dr. Connelly took McGee to Camp Peary where he entered by using his very private credentials. Camp Peary—the Farm–is an approximately 9,200 acre US military reservation in York County near Williamsburg, Virginia. Officially referred to as an AFETA [Armed Forces Experimental Training Activity]. It is under the authority of the Department of Defense and hosts a covert CIA training facility which is used to train mostly junior officers of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, as well as those of the DIA’s Defense Clandestine Service, among other intelligence entities. The Farm’s large acreage of land consists of about 8,000 acres which are unimproved or only partially improved, adding to its aura of privacy, and security. It is near Williamsburg, Virginia. The existence of this facility is widely known but has never been formally acknowledged by the US government.

For the next month, McGee lived in the Hyatt Regency Tysons Corner Center, 7901 Tysons One Place, in Tysons, Virginia and commuted four days a week to talk to Dr. Connelly. All McGee’s sessions with Dr. Connelly took place on the seventh floor of the OHB [Original Headquarters Building] in the training camp which is north of Interstate 64 in York County. They sat in his comfortable office with no sign on the door. The CIA’s impressive official headquarters is in unincorporated Fairfax County, Virginia, a few miles west of Washington, D.C. in nearby McLean along the Potomac River.

The Original Headquarters Building, a precast concrete construction–designed in the mid-1950s—is located about eight miles from downtown Washington. The grounds were an environment similar to a college campus. He was seen so frequently at the OHB that the locals began using their common nickname One of the Virginia Farmboys if his presence was noted at all.

Before the town of McLean was founded in 1910, the CIA Headquarters was just known to be located in Langley; and despite the name change in 1910, the name Langley is still used to describe the McLean neighborhood where the CIA is now located. CIA Headquarters reads up to 5 million tweets per day. The CIA’s Open Source Center appraises and evaluates information extensively available to the general public–including Twitter and Facebook–and keeps eyes on everything from blogs to tweets to more traditional media. The CIA agents stay up-to-date on the public’s reactions to world events. Other surveillance methods include TVs, iPhones, Androids, and computers running Windows, macOS, and Linux.

What goes on there is so secret that even the Starbucks at the CIA headquarters is not allowed to use names for orders. Instead, the baristas have to pair each order with the face of its secretive customers. All nine employees are required to undergo extensive background checks, and no one can enter the store without special security clearance.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s name appears on the cornerstone, and the original building has various artistic references to the past, including a life-size statue of Maj. Gen. William J. Donovan, and a bas-relief of Allen Dulles, who was CIA Director for nine years. Etched into