Seat by Seat: The Political Anorak's Guide to Potential Gains and Losses in the 2015 General Election

By Iain Dale

The 2015 general election is almost upon us, but the question on everyone's mind is also the one that no one seems to be able to answer: What's the result going to be? While political commentators all nervously agree it will be 'one to remember', the truth is that this is the most unpredictable election in recent memory. For the first time in British political history we are now in five-party politics, national swingometers are a thing of the past and opinion polls have been rendered almost irrelevant. Despite the challenges involved, however, political pundit Iain Dale has used recent polling, statistics and his famously sharp instinct to predict the result in each and every one of the UK's 650 constituencies. And if his predictions are anywhere near correct, Britain is on the verge of months, perhaps years of political uncertainty and upheaval. But will he be proven right? Only time will tell...

• Language: English
• Publisher: Biteback Publishing
• Release date: Feb 3, 2015
• ISBN: 9781849548823

Iain Dale

Iain Dale is an award-winning broadcaster with LBC Radio and presents their evening show. He co-presents the For the Many podcast with Jacqui Smith. He has written or edited more than 50 books, including Kings and Queens, The Presidents, The Prime Ministers, On This Day in Politics and Why Can’t We All Just Get Along. Signed copies of all his books can be ordered from www.politicos.co.uk. He is on all social media platforms @iaindale. He lives in Tunbridge Wells.

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Summary of Predictions

Conservative 278 (-29)

Labour 301 (+42)

Liberal Democrats 24 (-33)

SNP 18 (+12)

UKIP 5 (+5)

Plaid Cymru 3 (-)

Green 1 (-)

Respect 1 (-)

DUP 8 (-)

Sinn Féin 5 (-)

SDLP 3 (-)

Alliance 1 (-)

Independent 1 (-)

Speaker 1 (-)

Only 94 (14.5%) out of 650 seats will change hands

Scotland is the most volatile region of the UK with 15 out of 59 seats changing hands

In England, the South West and the North West are the most volatile regions with 13 seats changing hands in each

The North East is the most stable region with only 2 seats changing hands

The Conservatives will lose 48 seats and gain 21

Labour will lose 11 seats and gain 54

The Lib Dems will lose 32 seats and gain none

The SNP will lose no seats and gain 12

UKIP will lose no seats and gain 5

The seat with the biggest majority to change hands will be Linlithgow & Falkirk (12,553), which will be won by the SNP from Labour

The 94 Seats I Predict Will Change Hands

The 54 Labour Gains

The 20 Conservative Gains

The 12 SNP Gains

The 5 UKIP Gains

The 32 Liberal Democrat Losses

The 48 Conservative Losses