Seat by Seat: A Political Anorak's Guide to Potential Gains and Losses in the 2017 General Election

By Iain Dale

A surprise general election is approaching, but how surprising is its result going to be? Opinion polls and predictions speak clearly but, given the pollsters' recent performances, how much can we still rely on them? Will people vote with their heads or their hearts - or both?
With Article 50 triggered and the stage set for Britain's departure from the EU, will voters treat the election as a second Brexit referendum, or as a vote of confidence in Theresa May's leadership?
Which Leave seats could the Conservatives gain and which Remain ones could they lose? Will Wales turn Tory for the first time since the 1850s, and will the Lib Dems return to their 2010 glory days?
These questions will remain open until the early hours of Friday 9 June. In the meantime, political expert Iain Dale summons statistics, recent polling and, of course, his sharp instincts to give us his prediction for each and every one of the UK's 650 constituencies, seat by seat.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Biteback Publishing
• Release date: May 25, 2017
• ISBN: 9781785902765

Iain Dale

Iain Dale is an award-winning broadcaster with LBC Radio and presents their evening show. He co-presents the For the Many podcast with Jacqui Smith. He has written or edited more than 50 books, including Kings and Queens, The Presidents, The Prime Ministers, On This Day in Politics and Why Can’t We All Just Get Along. Signed copies of all his books can be ordered from www.politicos.co.uk. He is on all social media platforms @iaindale. He lives in Tunbridge Wells.

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Conservative Gains from Labour

Conservative Gains from Liberal Democrats

Conservative Gains from SNP

Conservative Gain from UKIP

Green Gains from Labour

Labour Gains from Conservative

Liberal Democrat Gains from Conservative

Liberal Democrat Gains from Labour

Plaid Cymru Gains from Labour

Sinn Féin Gain from UUP

SNP Gain from Labour

Bedfordshire

Seats: 6

Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2

Predicted Political Makeup after 8 June: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Bedford

2010 Result:

Conservative: 17,546 (38.9%)

Labour: 16,193 (35.9%)

Lib Dem: 8,957 (19.9%)

BNP: 757 (1.7%)

Green: 393 (0.9%)

UKIP: 1,136 (2.5%)

Independent: 120 (0.3%)

Majority: 1,353 (3%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Richard Fuller 19,625 42.6 +3.7

Labour: Patrick Hall 18,528 40.2 +4.3

Lib Dem: Mahmud Rogers 1,958 4.2 −15.6

Green: Ben Foley 1,412 3.1 +2.2

UKIP: Charlie Smith 4,434 9.6 +7.1

Independent: Faruk Choudhury 129 0.3 N/A

Majority: 1,097 2.4 −0.6

Turnout: 46,086 66.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 53.17 %

Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat was Labour during the Blair and Brown years and only narrowly went Tory in 2010. With a substantial Lib Dem vote to eat into, last time it should have gone Labour in 2015. There’s little reason to suggest it will this time.

2. Luton North

2010 Result:

Conservative: 13,672 (31.8%)

Labour: 21,192 (49.3%)

Lib Dem: 4,784 (11.1%)

BNP: 1,316 (3.1%)

Green: 490 (1.1%)

UKIP: 1,564 (3.6%)

Majority: 7,520 (17.5%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Dean Russell 12,739 29.9 −1.9

Labour: Kelvin Hopkins 22,243 52.2 +2.9

Lib Dem: Aroosa Ulzaman 1,299 3.1 −8.1

Green: Sofiya Ahmed 972 2.3 +1.1

UKIP: Allan White 5,318 12.5 +8.9

Majority: 9,504 22.3 +4.8

Turnout: 42,571 64.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 56.29 %

Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’s majority increased in 2015 as he ate into the Lib Dem vote. I suspect many of those votes will return to the Lib Dems this time. The Tories may have hopes in this seat but Hopkins is popular and his personal vote may see him through.

3. Luton South

2010 Result:

Conservative: 12,396 (29.4%)

Labour: 14,725 (34.9%)

Lib Dem: 9,567 (22.7%)

BNP: 12,99 (3.1%)

Green: 366 (0.9%)

UKIP: 975 (2.3%)

Independent: 1,872 (4.4%)

Others: 1,016 (2.4%)

Majority: 2,329 (5.5%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Katie Redmond 12,949 30.7 +1.3

Labour: Gavin Shuker 18,660 44.2 +9.3

Lib Dem: Ashuk Ahmed 3,183 7.5 −15.1

Green: Simon Hall 1,237 2.9 +2.1

UKIP: Muhammad Rehman 5,129 12.1 +9.8

Independent: Attiq Malik 900 2.1 N/A

Liberty GB Paul Weston 158 0.4 N/A

Majority: 5,711 13.5 +8

Turnout: 42,216 62.8 −2

Leave Vote: 53.07 %

Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)

Prediction: Conservative gain

As the Lib Dems return home from Labour, and UKIP voters return to the Tories Gavin Shuker may be a casualty of the Corbyn era.

4. Mid Bedfordshire

2010 Result:

Conservative: 28,815 (52.5%)

Labour: 8,108 (14.8%)

Lib Dem: 13,663 (24.9%)

Green: 773 (1.4%)

UKIP: 2,826 (5.1%)

English Dem: 712 (1.3%)

Majority: 15,152 (27.6%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Nadine Dorries 32,544 56.1 +3.6

Labour: Charlynne Pullen 9,217 15.9 +1.1

Lib Dem: Linda Jack 4,193 7.2 -17.7

Green: Gareth Ellis 2,462 4.2 +2.8

UKIP: Nigel Wickens 8,966 15.4 +10.3

Independent Tim Ireland 384 0.7 +0.7

Monster Raving Loony Ann Kelly 294 0.5 +0.5

Majority: 23,327 40.2 +12.6

Turnout: 58,060 71.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 52.06 %

Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North East Bedfordshire

2010 Result:

Conservative: 30,989 (55.8%)

Labour: 8,957 (16.1%)

Lib Dem: 12,047 (21.7%)

BNP: 1,265 (2.3%)

UKIP: 2,294 (4.1%)

Majority: 18,942 (34.1%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Alistair Burt 34,891 59.5 +3.7

Labour: Saqhib Ali 9,247 15.8 −0.4

Lib Dem: Peter Morris 3,418 5.8 −15.9

Green: Mark Bowler 2,537 4.3 N/A

UKIP: Adrianne Smyth 8,579 14.6 +10.5

Majority: 25,644 43.7 +9.6

Turnout: 58,672 70.2

Leave Vote: 53.09%

Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South West Bedfordshire

2010 Result:

Conservative: 26,815 (52.8%)

Labour: 9,948 (19.6%)

Lib Dem: 10,166 (20%)

BNP: 1,703 (3.4%)

UKIP: 2,142 (4.2%)

Majority: 16,649 (32.8%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Andrew Selous 28,212 55.0 +2.2

Labour: Daniel Scott 10,399 20.3 +0.7

Lib Dem: Stephen Rutherford 2,646 5.2 −14.9

Green: Emily Lawrence 2,106 4.1 N/A

UKIP: John van Weenen 7,941 15.5 +11.3

Majority: 17,813 34.7

Turnout: 51,304 64.4

Leave Vote: 57.6%

Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

Berkshire

Seats: 8

Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1

Predicted Political Makeup after 8 June: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Bracknell

2010 Result:

Conservative: 27,327 (52.4%)

Labour: 87,55 (16.8%)

Lib Dem: 11,623 (22.3%)

BNP: 1,253 (2.4%)

Green: 821 (1.6%)

UKIP: 2,297 (4.4%)

Others: 60 (0.1%)

Majority: 15,704 (30.1%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Phillip Lee 29,606 55.8 +3.4

Labour: James Walsh 8,956 16.9 +0.1

Lib Dem: Patrick Smith 3,983 7.5 −14.8

Green: Derek Florey 2,202 4.1 +2.6

UKIP: Richard Thomas 9 8,339 15.7 +11.3

Majority: 20,650 38.9 +8.8

Turnout: 53,086 65.3 −2.6

Leave Vote: 53.2%

Sitting MP: Philip Lee (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Maidenhead

2010 Result:

Conservative: 31,937 (59.5%)

Labour: 3,795 (7.1%)

Lib Dem: 15,168 (28.2%)

BNP: 825 (1.5%)

Green: 482 (0.9%)

UKIP: 1,243 (2.3%)

Others: 270 (0.5%)

Majority: 16,769 (31.2%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Theresa May 35,453 65.8 +6.4

Labour: Charlie Smith 6,394 11.9 +4.8

Lib Dem: Tony Hill 5,337 9.9 −18.3

Green: Emily Blyth 1,915 3.6 +2.7

UKIP: Herbie Crossman 4,539 8.4 +6.1

Independent: Ian Taplin 162 0.3 N/A

Class War: Joe Wilcox 55 0.1 N/A

Majority: 29,059 54.0 +22.8

Turnout: 53,855 72.6 −1.1

Leave Vote: 45%

Sitting MP: Theresa May (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Newbury

2010 Result:

Conservative: 33,057 (56.4%)

Labour: 2,505 (4.3%)

Lib Dem: 20,809 (35.5%)

Green: 490 (0.8%)

UKIP: 1,475 (2.5%)

Independent: 158 (0.3%)

Others: 95 (0.2%)

Majority: 12,248 (20.9%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Richard Benyon 34,973 61.0 +4.6

Labour: Jonny Roberts 4,837 8.4 +4.2

Lib Dem: Judith Bunting 8,605 15.0 -20.5

Green: Paul Field 2,324 4.1 +3.2

UKIP: Catherine Anderson 6,195 10.8 +8.3

Independent: Barrie Singleton 85 0.1

Apolitical Democrats Peter Norman 228 0.4 +0.2

Patriotic Socialist Party Andrew Stott 53 0.1

Majority: 26,368 46.0 +25.1

Turnout: 57,300 72.1 +1.9

Leave Vote: 47.8%

Sitting MP: Richard Benyon (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Reading East

2010 Result:

Conservative: 21,269 (42.6%)

Labour: 12,729 (25.5%)

Lib Dem: 13,664 (27.3%)

Green: 1,069 (2.1%)

UKIP: 1,086 (2.2%)

Independent: 111 (0.2%)

Others: 57 (0.1%)

Majority: 7,605 (15.2%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Rob Wilson 23,217 46.0 +3.4

Labour: Matt Rodda 16,697 33.1 +7.6

Lib Dem: Jenny Woods 3,719 7.4 −19.9

Green: Rob White 3,214 6.4 +4.3

UKIP: Christine Forrester 3,647 7.2 +5.0

Majority: 6,520 12.9

Turnout: 50,494 69.0 +2.3

Leave Vote: 38.3%

Sitting MP: Rob Wilson (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Reading West

2010 Result:

Conservative: 20,523 (43.2%)

Labour: 14,519 (30.5%)

Lib Dem: 9,546 (20.1%)

Green: 582 (1.2%)

UKIP: 1,508 (3.2%)

Others: 852 (1.8%)

Majority: 6,004 (12.6%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Alok Sharma 23,082 47.7 +4.5

Labour: Victoria Groulef 16,432 34.0 +3.5

Lib Dem: Meri O’Connell 2,355 4.9 -15.2

Green: Miriam Kennet 1,406 2.9 +1.7

UKIP: Malik Azam 4,826 10.0 +6.8

Independent: Suzie Ferguson 156 0.3 -

TUSC: Neil Adams 83 0.2 -

Roman: Philip West 64 0.1 -

Majority: 6,650 13.7 +1.1

Turnout: 48,404 66.7 +0.8

Leave Vote: 51.5%

Sitting MP: Alok Sharma (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Slough

2010 Result:

Conservative: 16,361 (34.3%)

Labour: 21,884 (45.8%)

Lib Dem: 6,943 (14.5%)

Green: 542 (1.1%)

UKIP: 1,517 (3.2%)

Christian: 495 (1%)

Majority: 5,523 (11.6%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Gurcharan Singh 16,085 33.3 −1.0

Labour: Fiona Mactaggart 23,421 48.5 +2.7

Lib Dem: Tom McCann 1,275 2.6 −11.9

Green: Julian Edmonds 1,220 2.5 +1.4

UKIP: Diana Coad 6,274 13.0 +9.8

Majority: 6,650 13.7 +1.1

Turnout: 48,275 55.9 −6.0

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Fiona MacTaggart (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

This seat was held by the Tory John Watts until 1997 but demographic changes have cemented Labour’s hold on it. However, in a massive Tory landslide it could be in play.

7. Windsor

2010 Result:

Conservative: 30,172 (60.8%)

Labour: 4,910 (9.9%)

Lib Dem: 11,118 (22.4%)

BNP: 950 (1.9%)

Green: 628 (1.3%)

UKIP: 1,612 (3.3%)

Independent: 198 (0.4%)

Majority: 19,054 (38.4%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Adam Afriyie 31,797 63.4 +2.6

Labour: Fiona Dent 6,714 13.4 +3.5

UKIP: Tariq Malik 4,992 10.0 +7.7

Liberal Democrat: George Fussey 4,323 8.6 -13.8

Green: Derek Wall 1,834 3.7 +2.4

Independent: Wisdom Da Costa 500 1.0 N/A

Majority: 25,083 (50.0%) +11.6

Leave Vote: 46.7%

Sitting MP: Adam Afriyie (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Wokingham

2010 Result:

Conservative: 28,754 (52.7%)

Labour: 5,516 (10.1%)

Lib Dem: 15,262 (28%)

Green: 567 (1%)

UKIP: 1,664 (3.1%)

Independent: 2,340 (4.3%)

Others: 425 (0.8%)

Majority: 13,492 (24.7%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: John Redwood 32,329 57.7 +5.0

Labour: Andy Croy 8,132 14.5 +4.4

Liberal Democrat: Clive Jones 7,572 13.5 −14.5

UKIP: Philip Cunnington 5,516 9.9 +6.8

Green: Adrian Windisch 2,092 3.7 +2.7

Independent: Kaz Lokuciewski 358 0.6 N/A

Majority: 24,197 43.2 +19.5

Turnout: 55,999 71.9 +0.4

Leave Vote: 42.7%

Sitting MP: John Redwood (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

Birmingham

Seats: 9

Current Political Makeup: Lab 8

Predicted Political Makeup after 8 June: Con 3, Lab 5

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:

Conservative: 15,620 (37.6%)

Labour: 16,894 (40.6%)

Lib Dem: 6,387 (15.4%)

BNP: 1,196 (2.9%)

Green: 469 (1.1%)

UKIP: 732 (1.8%)

Christian: 127 (0.3%)

Others: 146 (0.4%)

Majority: 1,274 (3.1%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Gisela Stuart 18,518 44.85 +4.21

Conservative: Luke Evans 15,812 38.29 +0.72

UKIP: Graham Short 4,154 10.06 +8.30

Green: Philip Simpson 1,371 3.32 +2.19

Liberal Democrat: Lee Dargue 1,184 2.87 −12.49

Christian: Gabriel Ukandu 163 0.39 +0.08

Independent: Henna Rai 91 0.22 N/A

Majority: 2,706 6.55 +3.49

Turnout: 41,293 62.96 +2.34

Leave Vote: 43.75%

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)

Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories have had their eye on this seat ever since 1997 but Gisela Stuart proved very difficult to shift. She’s standing down so I’d say this was a very likely Tory gain.

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:

Conservative: 11,592 (32.6%)

Labour: 14,869 (41.8%)

Lib Dem: 5,742 (16.2%)

BNP: 1,815 (5.1%)

UKIP: 842 (2.4%)

Christian: 217 (0.6%)

Independent: 240 (0.7%)

Others: 229 (0.6%)

Majority: 3,277 (9.2%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Jack Dromey 15,824 45.6 +3.8

Conservative: Robert Alden 10,695 30.8 -1.8

UKIP: Andrew Garcarz 6,040 17.4 +15.0

Liberal Democrat: Ann Holtom 965 2.8 -13.4

Green: Joe Belcher 948 2.7 N/A

TUSC: Ted Woodley 212 0.6 N/A

Majority: 5,129 14.8 +5.6

Turnout: 34,684 53.3 -0.2

Leave Vote: 58.48%

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)

Prediction: Conservative gain

I think Jack Dromey is in real trouble here. A big Leave vote, combined with nearly 7,000 UKIP votes up for grabs and the Tories must be hoping they can pull this one off.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:

Conservative: 7,320 (15%)

Labour: 16,039 (32.9%)

Lib Dem: 11,988 (24.6%)

UKIP: 950 (1.9%)

Respect: 12,240 (25.1%)

Independent: 190 (0.4%)

Majority: 3,799 (7.8%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Roger Godsiff 28,147 59.8 +24.9

Conservative: James Bird 8,329 17.7 +2.7

Liberal Democrat: Jerry Evans 5,459 11.6 -13.0

Green: Elly Stanton 2,200 4.7 N/A

UKIP: Rashpal Mondair 2,131 4.5 +2.6

Respect: Shiraz Peer 780 1.7 -23.5

Majority: 19,818 42.1 +34.3

Turnout: 47,046 61.6 -2.0

Leave Vote: 42.17%

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:

Conservative: 4,936 (11.6%)

Labour: 22,077 (52%)

Lib Dem: 11,775 (27.7%)

BNP: 2,333 (5.5%)

UKIP: 714 (1.7%)

Others: 637 (1.5%)

Majority: 10,302 (24.3%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Liam Byrne 28,069 68.4 +16.4

Conservative: Kieran Mullan 4,707 11.5 -0.2

UKIP: Albert Duffen 4,651 11.3 +9.7

Liberal Democrat: Phil Bennion 2,624 6.4 -21.3

Green: Chris Nash 835 2.0 N/A

Communist: Andy Chaffer 153 0.4 +0.4

Majority: 23,362 56.9 +32.6

Turnout: 41,039 54.5 -1.1

Leave Vote: 50.41%

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:

Conservative: 4,277 (11.9%)

Labour: 19,950 (55.7%)

Lib Dem: 9,845 (27.5%)

Green: 859 (2.4%)

UKIP: 902 (2.5%)

Majority: 10,105 (28.2%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Shabana Mahmood 26,444 73.6 +18.0

Conservative: Isabel Sigmac 4,576 12.7 +0.8

UKIP: Clair Braund 1,805 5.0 +2.5

Green: Margaret Okole 1,501 4.2 +1.8

Liberal Democrat: Shazad Iqbal 1,374 3.8 -23.6

Liberty GB: Tim Burton 216 0.6 N/A

Majority: 21,868 60.9 +32.7

Turnout: 35,916 52.7 +4

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:

Conservative: 14,059 (33.6%)

Labour: 16,841 (40.3%)

Lib Dem: 6,550 (15.7%)

BNP: 2,290 (5.5%)

Green: 406 (1%)

UKIP: 1,363 (3.3%)

Others: 305 (0.7%)

Majority: 2,782 (6.7%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Richard Burden 17,673 41.6 +1.3

Conservative: Rachel Maclean 15,164 35.7 +2.1

UKIP: Keith Rowe 7,106 16.7 +13.5

Liberal Democrat: Steve Haynes 1,349 3.2 -12.5

Green: Anna Masters 1,169 2.8 +1.8

Majority: 2,509 5.9

Turnout: 42,461 59.4 +0.8

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)

Prediction: Conservative gain

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s about to be again.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:

Conservative: 8,960 (21.3%)

Labour: 21,142 (50.3%)

Lib Dem: 9,234 (22%)

UKIP: 1,675 (4%)

Christian: 507 (1.2%)

Others: 527 (1.3%)

Majority: 11,908 (28.3%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Khalid Mahmood 23,697 57.4 +7.1

Conservative: Charlotte Hodivala 8,869 21.5 +0.2

UKIP: Harjinder Singh 5,032 12.2 +8.2

Liberal Democrat: Arjun Singh 2,001 4.8 -17.1

Green: James Lovatt 1,330 3.2 N/A

TUSC: Robert Punton 331 0.8 N/A

Majority: 14,828 35.9

Turnout: 41,260 59.0

Leave Vote: 54.14%

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:

Conservative: 14,468 (31.1%)

Labour: 17,950 (38.5%)

Lib Dem: 10,371 (22.3%)

BNP: 1,820 (3.9%)

Green: 664 (1.4%)

UKIP: 1,131 (2.4%)

Christian: 159 (0.3%)

Majority: 3,482 (7.5%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Steve McCabe 21,584 47.7 +9.1

Conservative: Alex Boulter 13,137 29.0 -2.1

UKIP: Steven Brookes 5,755 12.7 +10.3

Liberal Democrat: Colin Green 2,517 5.6 -16.7

Green: Clare Thomas 2,301 5.1 +3.7

Majority: 8,447 18.6

Turnout: 45,294 60.3

Leave Vote: 45.74%

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:

Conservative: 7,836 (19.2%)

Labour: 13,160 (32.2%)

Lib Dem: 16,162 (39.6%)

BNP: 2,153 (5.3%)

UKIP: 1,190 (2.9%)

Others: 349 (0.9%)

Majority: 3,002 (7.3%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Jess Phillips 17,129 41.5 +9.4

Liberal Democrat: John Hemming 10,534 25.6 -14.0

UKIP: Paul Clayton 6,637 16.1 +13.2

Conservative: Arun Photay 5,760 14.0 -5.2

Green: Grant Bishop 698 1.7 +1.7

Respect: Teval Stephens 187 0.5 N/A

TUSC: Eamonn Flynn 135 0.3 N/A

Social Democratic: Peter Johnson 71 0.2 N/A

Majority: 6,595 16.0

Turnout: 41,313 57.3 +0.7

Leave Vote: 60.61%

Sitting MP: Jess Phillips (Lab)

Prediction: Labour hold

John Hemming is restanding and his result was certainly better than his Lib Dem colleagues’. But given this is a Leave seat, I can’t see him rising from the ashes.

Bristol & Surrounds

Seats: 11

Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3 

Predicted Political Makeup after 8 June: Con 8, Lib Dem 2, Green 1

1. Bath

2010 Result:

Conservative: 14,768 (31.4%)

Labour: 3,251 (6.9%)

Lib Dem: 26,651 (56.6%)

Green: 1,120 (2.4%)

UKIP: 890 (1.9%)

Christian: 250 (0.5%)

Independent: 56 (0.1%)

Others: 100 (0.2%)

Majority: 11,883 (25.2%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Ben Howlett 17,833 37.8 +6.4

Liberal Democrat: Steve Bradley 14,000 29.7 −26.9

Labour: Ollie Middleton 6,216 13.2 +6.3

Green: Dominic Tristram 5,634 11.9 +9.6

UKIP: Julian Deverell 2,922 6.2 +4.3

Independent: Loraine Morgan-Brinkhurst 499 1.1 +1.1

English Democrat: Jenny Knight 63 0.1 +0.1

Majority: 3,833 8.1 −7

Turnout: 47,167 77.5 5.7

Leave Vote: 33.58%

Sitting MP: Ben Howlett (Con)

Prediction: Lib Dem gain

The Conservatives were desperate to win this seat back ever since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, and they did so in 2015. There’s a very good chance the Lib Dems could win it back this time even though the MP is so left of centre and pro-Remain he’s virtually a Lib Dem anyway. If the Greens stand down and the Lib Dems can attract some of the Labour vote, Ben Howlett is going to be facing his P45. Because of his arch-Remain stance it’s unlikely many UKIP voters will switch to him.

2. Bristol East

2010 Result:

Conservative: 12,749 (28.3%)

Labour: 16,471 (36.6%)

Lib Dem: 10,993 (24.4%)

BNP: 1,960 (4.4%)

Green: 803 (1.8%)

UKIP: 1,510 (3.4%)

English Dem: 347 (0.8%)

TUSC: 184 (0.4%)

Majority: 3,722 (8.3%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Kerry McCarthy 18,148 39.3 +2.7

Conservative: Theodora Clarke 14,168 30.7 +2.3

UKIP: James McMurray 7,152 15.5 +12.1

Green: Lorraine Francis 3,827 8.3 +6.5

Liberal Democrat: Abdul Malik 2,689 5.8 −18.6

TUSC: Matt Gordon 229 0.5 +0.1

Majority: 3,980 8.6 +0.3

Turnout: 46,213 64.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 54.94%

Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)

Prediction: Conservative gain

This has consistently been a Labour seat but the Conservatives will target this seat on 8 June. Kerry McCarthy’s best hope is that she can persuade the Greens to stand down and give her a clear run. If UKIP voters switch in enough numbers and Leave-supporting Labour voters defect too, McCarthy will lose. I expect her to.

3. Bristol North West

2010 Result:

Conservative: 19,115 (38%)

Labour: 13,059 (25.9%)

Lib Dem: 15,841 (31.5%)

Green: 511 (1%)

UKIP: 1,175 (2.3%)

English Dem: 635 (1.3%)

Majority: 3,274 (6.5%)

2015 Result:

Conservative: Charlotte Leslie 22,767 43.9 +6.0

Labour: Darren Jones 17,823 34.4 +8.5

UKIP: Michael Frost 4,889 9.4 +7.1

Liberal Democrat: Clare Campion-Smith 3,214 6.2 -25.3

Green: Justin Quinnell 2,952 5.7 +4.7

TUSC: Anne Lemon 160 0.3 N/A

Majority: 4,944 9.5 +6.0

Turnout: 51,805 67.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 46.21%

Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)

Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Bristol South

2010 Result:

Conservative: 11,086 (22.9%)

Labour: 18,600 (38.4%)

Lib Dem: 13,866 (28.7%)

BNP: 1,739 (3.6%)

Green: 1,216 (2.5%)

UKIP: 1,264 (2.6%)

English Dem: 400 (0.8%)

TUSC: 206 (0.4%)

Majority: 4,734 (9.8%)

2015 Result:

Labour: Karin Smyth 19,505 38.4 -0.1

Conservative: Isobel Grant 12,377 24.3 +1.4

UKIP: Steve Wood 8,381 16.5 +13.9

Green: Tony Dyer 5,861 11.5 +9.0

Liberal Democrat: Mark Wright 4,416 8.7 -20.0

TUSC: Tom Baldwin 302 0.6 +0.2

Majority: 7,128 14.0 +4.2

Turnout: 50,842 62.0 +0.4

Leave Vote: 54.05%

Sitting MP: Karin Smith