Doomed, Unless: How Climate Change and Political Correctness Will Destroy Modern Civilization

By Luc Gagnon M.Sc., Ph.D.

In this book, you will learn how political correctness has greatly underestimated climate change impacts and overestimated the benefits of new technologies. This is a recipe for disaster. There is still hope if we eliminate political correctness from climate policy, as many options are available to save modern civilization.

QUOTES FROM ENERGY EXPERTS

Luc Gagnon's book is a breath of fresh air in the climate debate. Based on rigorous analysis and a critical eye refined over his long career, the author offers us a raw picture of the failure of climate policies. Too often, these policies are fueled by good thinking and political correctness rather than by facts... A book to read and discuss absolutely.

- Normand Mousseau, Professor, Physical Science, Montreal University

We need a new way of understanding the energy transition. This book sheds a harsh light on why inertia is winning, despite the importance of our scientific knowledge...

Almost no one has the courage to clearly identify (the needed) changes for fear of offending this or that group. Luc Gagnon has that courage.

- Pierre-Olivier Pineau, Professor, Hautes Études Commerciales, Montreal University

The author has the lucidity to accept the real causes plaguing humanity and ultimately threatening its survival. Clearly, without deceit. An essential work.

- Jean-François Lefebvre, Sustainable Development, Quebec University. at Montreal

• Language: English
• Publisher: Tellwell Talent
• Release date: Oct 26, 2022
• ISBN: 9780228883647

Luc Gagnon M.Sc., Ph.D.

This book on climate change is unique because the author has experience from different, even opposite, perspectives:- University teacher in Urban Planning, Environmental Science, and Engineering.- 15 years of work for environmental groups dealing with climate change, public transit, and sustainable development.- 20 years for Hydro-Quebec as Senior Advisor, Climate Change.- Years of research on life-cycle assessments (LCAs) of energy options.• His expertise in energy was recognized by the International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He has published numerous articles.• With a life-cycle approach, he is able to identify when promoters or politicians make misleading promises due to political correctness.• In sum, his experience allows him to detect when communications are self-serving and designed to impress, without concern for the truth.

Book preview

Doomed, Unless

How Climate Change and Political Correctness will Destroy Modern Civilization

Luc Gagnon, M.Sc., Ph.D.

Doomed, Unless

Copyright © 2022 by Luc Gagnon, M.Sc., Ph.D.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law.

Illustrations by Violette Moukhtar

Tellwell Talent

www.tellwell.ca

ISBN

978-0-2288-8363-0 (Hardcover)

978-0-2288-8362-3 (Paperback)

978-0-2288-8364-7 (eBook)

Image on Book Cover

Figure SPM.6. Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090-2099). The map shows the multi-AOGCM average projection for the A1B SRES scenario.

Legend in degrees C

Warming of 7.5o C = 13.5o F

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.

Table of Contents

Reviews of DOOMED, UNLESS by Energy Experts

Introduction: The cycle of empty promises

1. Climate issues greatly underestimated by political correctness

2. The need for clean electricity, underestimated by a factor of three

3. Suburban sprawl, the energy consumption multiplier

4. Harmful trends in heating and air conditioning

5. Transportation: The Big Lie concerning zero-emission vehicles

6. Transportation: The large potential of trams

7. Transportation: Changing the rules of the game

8. Food and Agriculture: One action for the climate

9. The small actions culture, a distraction

10. Green taxes or Ecological fiscal reform?

11. Population growth, the forbidden issue

Conclusion

Appendix: Greenhouse Gases

Reviews of DOOMED, UNLESS by Energy Experts

Normand Mousseau

•Professor in Physical Science, Montreal University

•Scientific director, Trottier Energy Institute

Luc Gagnon’s book is a breath of fresh air in the climate debate. Based on rigorous analysis and a critical eye refined over his long career, the author offers us a raw picture of the failure of climate policies. Too often, these policies are fueled by good thinking and political correctness rather than by facts. The result is billions of dollars spent ineffectively, inadequate citizen efforts, and a planet falling apart. Compared to the disasters ahead, the COVID-19 pandemic will have been negligible. And yet, the response of governments to the pandemic was much more decisive and ruthless, than the actions on climate change. Luc Gagnon allows us to understand the underlying issues better; he identifies courses of action that could change things. A book to read and discuss absolutely.

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

•Professor, Hautes Études Commerciales, Montreal University

•Lead author of the annual report Energy in Quebec

We need a new way of understanding the energy transition. This book sheds a harsh light on why inertia is winning, despite the importance of our scientific knowledge. It presents, with extraordinary rationality, the fact that it is not technological barriers that prevent decarbonisation, but a refusal to review our lifestyles. The solutions are within reach, but they require changes at many levels. Almost no one has the courage to clearly identify these changes for fear of offending this or that group. Luc Gagnon has that courage.

Paul Lanoie

•Sustainable Development commissioner, Québec government

•Professor, Hautes Études Commerciales, Montreal University (for 27 years)

Luc Gagnon has undeniable expertise in climate change. He paints a clear, instructive, and insightful picture of the current situation and the huge challenges we face. In doing so, he lucidly tackles taboo subjects such as population growth or GHG emissions from pets. His provocative observations are certainly worth considering, as are the solutions he advocates. In this regard, as a former Commissioner of Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission, I can only approve his proposal on ecological tax reform!

Jean-François Boisvert

•President and co-founder, Montreal Climate Coalition

To avoid the climate catastrophe looming on the horizon, we must free ourselves from fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels currently provide 80% of the energy consumed worldwide, this represents an enormous challenge. Luc Gagnon’s demonstration is essential on several levels: small gestures will not be sufficient; actions must be much more ambitious and attack the problem at its root; our political leaders, to avoid displeasing their constituents, do not dare to advance on this path. Even environmental organizations prefer to avoid certain subjects. However, it is necessary to be able to debate them as lucidly as possible. The merit of this book is to tackle these issues head-on.

Jean-François Lefebvre

•Lecturer in sustainable development for 14 years, Urban Planning, Quebec University at Montreal

Luc Gagnon offers us a masterful work. He ignores prejudices, shakes up taboos, and goes beyond preconceived ideas. Despite the consensus, progressive circles, on the urgency of tackling the climate crisis, we are far from being out of the woods. However, the author shows us that the solutions are very tangible, right there in front of us: bold urban redevelopment, ambitious ecological fiscal reforms… He has the lucidity to accept the real causes plaguing humanity and ultimately threatening its survival. Clearly, without deceit. An essential work.

Introduction: The cycle of empty promises

In the first sixteen months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus caused four million deaths worldwide. Is this exceptional when compared to other global issues? In comparison, air pollution from fossil fuels is responsible for 6 or 7 million deaths, each year¹. This is due to pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. The assessment does not consider greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), and the effects of climate change.

A complete assessment should include climate change, which increases the intensity and frequency of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, droughts, bushfires, and forest fires. In the future, the annual number of victims will be calculated in millions. A National Geographic article² confirms this probable outcome for heat-related impacts:

The ultimate solution to global warming, of course, is to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. If we utterly fail to do that, by 2100, the heat-related death toll could rise above 100 000 a year in the U.S. Elsewhere, the threat is far greater: In India, for example, the death toll could reach 1.5 million.

The article mentions another probable impact in 30 years:

By 2050, high heat and humidity in the American Southeast will likely render the entire growing season unsafe for agricultural work with present-day working practices.

In sum, portions of current human habitat will become unfit for life.

Despite this, we will describe, in the first chapter, why international institutions constantly underestimate the impacts of climate change. One reason for downplaying the impacts is political correctness.

What is political correctness?

It is a social code that prohibits language or actions that may offend or disadvantage others. It becomes unacceptable to say that a particular group is creating a problem. For example, it is unacceptable to say that the suburban lifestyle consumes a large quantity of energy.

Yale researcher S. Morris³ explained the process that causes political correctness: politicians care very much about what people think of them; as a result, they change their behavior or opinion, to protect their reputation. This is not surprising in the case of politicians who must be elected. The contribution of Morris is to show how this process also applies to most experts that give advice to politicians. If these experts want to benefit from future subsidies or contracts, they need to adopt the expected behavior or conclusions.

In this context, political correctness must include friendly characteristics: be positive, create hope and propose a few symbolic solutions, even if they are simplistic. So, instead of describing the energy consumption of suburbs, politicians and environmentalists promote the recycling of residential waste. Recycling becomes a tool to avoid real issues.

The pattern of broken promises

Managing climate change is an urgent challenge that requires economic and fiscal reforms. Despite this, the following pattern, greatly influenced by political correctness, has been repeated for more than 30 years:

•Scientists who study climate change understand the fundamental requirements to reduce emissions. But being dependent on government funding, they do not want to offend politicians. They want to continue as advisors, so they make formal assessments of climate change that are acceptable to politicians, underestimating the impacts.

•In response to these scientific assessments, politicians propose soft measures that will not disturb the business-as-usual. To be politically correct, they must give the impression that they will solve the problem, so they promise large emission reductions in 20 or 30 years.

•These politicians then do nothing to implement the needed structural changes.

•Environmental groups propose actions that are more ambitious than those of politicians. But to simplify their strategy, they focus 95% of their efforts on a few symbolic messages. Even if they would deny this, their overall message becomes oil and plastic are the villains; wind power and electric vehicles will save us from climate change.

•A group of citizens reads about climate change; they become worried, feeling guilty about consuming oil or electricity. Another group of citizens is conservative and see climate measures as a personal attack on their lifestyle.

•Promoters of politically correct technology then intervene. They propose options that allow citizens to feel less guilty, without changing their lifestyle: one example is electric cars. They also offer options that will enable big companies to improve their image: for example, wind or solar power.

•Environmental groups intervene by also proposing actions that allow citizens to reduce their feeling of guilt: examples are residential recycling or reusable grocery bags.

•Promoters of new technology do not want to offend conservative citizens. They say that managing climate change is easy; they promise that wind power and electric cars will be available at no extra cost.

This pattern has repeated itself at least five times in the last 30 years, without any serious emission reduction. It is surprising that most environmental groups and politicians just want to