Beware! The Cascading Has Arrived

By David Reilly

This book had its origins in the many natural disasters that seemed to be increasing in number and intensity in recent years. An ever-increasing loss of life, spiraling economic costs and losses, and a lack of national, coordinated recognition and understanding of the dangers these natural disasters foretold were evident.  Additional concerns included a political attitude that ignored the realities of the dire future impacts of climate change.  Priority for short-term issues which has taken precedence over the need for long-term policies, including financing, that address the needed changes were evident. Many of the requirements and procedures necessary for these changes will require attitudinal and behavioral changes. These will necessitate taking care of our oceans. Changes in land use will most likely need the migration of large segments of our population and will not be popular.

            Although many of the changes will not be happily received and will require significant funding allocations, the alternatives to not taking action are far worse.  Natural disasters of worse magnitude than we have experienced will continue to occur, and the cascading effects will be beyond imagination.

            An approach to preparation that involves planning and funding outside of political control, involving local, state, regional, and national involvement is necessary.  Cadres of high school graduates and college-age students who are willing to serve a one-to two-year service program could provide a ready force to assist in dealing with the planning of pre-event needs and helping with dealing with the aftermath of disasters should be implemented.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Austin Macauley Publishers
• Release date: Sep 15, 2022
• ISBN: 9781649796950

David Reilly

David Reilly has spent nearly forty years in academia, including twenty-two years as a university dean. His early work focused on improving children’s learning. His later work concentrated on the applications of nonlinear thinking and processes to explore a wide range of human conditions.

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About the Author

Retiring after 36 years in academia as a professor, 22 of which were as a dean (School of Education (UNC-G) and as a Graduate Dean (The Citadel), Dr. Reilly returned to North Carolina. During these 36 years, he also published four books (primarily on children’s learning) and 50 plus articles for professional journals. He was twice appointed to a Senior Fulbright Scholar appointment, first to the Republic of Cyprus in 1986/7 and then to the inaugural appointment in psychology to the Soviet Union in 1990 in the Republic of Georgia.

Dedication

This book is dedicated to Jean, my wife, and best friend for over 60 years; our children, Scott, Chris, and Sandra; our grandchildren, Meghan, Reilly, Austin, Devyn, Payton, and Preston; and our great-grandchildren, Jayden and Everly. And in memory of Matthew Scott Reilly.

Copyright Information ©

David Reilly 2022

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher.

Any person who commits any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

The story, experiences, and words are the author’s alone.

Ordering Information

Quantity sales: Special discounts are available on quantity purchases by corporations, associations, and others. For details, contact the publisher at the address below.

Publisher’s Cataloging-in-Publication data

Reilly, David

Beware! The Cascading Has Arrived

ISBN 9781649796943 (Paperback)

ISBN 9781649796950 (ePub e-book)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2022913142

www.austinmacauley.com/us

First Published 2022

Austin Macauley Publishers LLC

40 Wall Street, 33rd Floor, Suite 3302

New York, NY 10005

USA

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Acknowledgment

To my mother who taught me so much.

Prologue

About 10,000 years ago, when ice still ruled our environment, three family clans wearily made their way through the snow up a mountainside to their cave home. Each family numbered 12–15, including men, women, and children. None had expected to be returning to their cave so soon after leaving it only days earlier. But a late spring blizzard had blanketed their usual hunting grounds since they first left their cave. The blizzard was late, and they had not expected it. And the current weather indicators were that more was to be expected. Only a return to the cave offered a chance of survival. There they expected to find the remains of cached food, wood for fires, and safety from the wind and cold. They hoped it would be enough. The previous winter had been unusually harsh, and they had to use more of their meager supplies than they expected.

Each family had a cave near the others, no more than an hour’s walk away. However, only in the direst of circumstances would they chance to go to one of the other’s caves. Supplies were so low that a fight to the death would ensue if one family tried to take another’s. Social cooperation did not extend beyond one’s family clan, and, even then, the strongest won.

The first family entered their cave and found it relatively the same as they had left it. Apparent signs of small animals abounded but nothing large enough to be concerning. Outside, the wind was blowing harder, so the first requirement was to start a fire using the tinder and wood that had been stored for use when they returned after their summer’s travel and hunting. The family leader, the strongest among them, went to the wood cache with grave concern. Generally, the wood they stored was a mixture of green and seasoned wood, expecting the greenwood to dry and season over the summer. The winter had been harsh, and they had used more of the seasoned wood than expected. He hoped the greener wood would ignite and burn from the more seasoned wood that was left.

The second family also found their cave, and all looked fine. However, they did find the wood was soaked from water that had seeped through cracks and fissures in the rock above it. Never in their memory had such an event occurred. Now it spelled doom unless they could find some way to dry it.

The third family went to their cave with high hopes. After throwing the customary rocks in it to determine if there were any bears there, they found to their dismay, there was at least one. They had few weapons, a sharpened branch to serve as a spear, and fist-sized rocks to swing. It was doubtful if they could dislodge and defend themselves against a caved bear, but they had to try if they were to survive.

Each of these three scenarios depicts conditions that primitive humans could have faced. Each family met an unexpected natural phenomenon. Each responded by returning to an environment, the cave, that offered a promise of survival. Each family met other unexpected natural events that challenged their ability to intervene in these events and processes and change their environment for the better to survive.

Did any of these families survive? We will never know, but it is probable that the survival of the fittest did not apply to the three groups. In each of these scenarios, unpredictable and non-controllable processes (the storm, the wet wood, the bear) proved to be more than any family could overcome. For the survival of the fittest to govern an outcome, it must be in a positive, or at worst, a neutral set of circumstances. If the conditions exceed the capabilities of the humans involved, and particularly, if the conditions interact so that their effect is magnified, then human interventions have much less of a chance of success, even by the fittest.

The concept of ‘survival of the fittest’ extends well beyond the fate of these three families. Increasingly, the survival of the fittest concept has been accepted by the scientific community. Less attention, however, has been paid to the conditions surrounding the struggles to survive and thrive. It is entirely possible that in countless situations, the fittest succumbed to the conditions they encountered. The human gene pool’s quality was weakened by having less fit individuals pass genes on. Passed on to future generations were not the best of the genes but the best of what was available.

These processes of how humans confront and attempt to intervene and change undesired conditions to more desired ones have been played out countless thousands of times since the people of the caves. Examples of similar attempts abound today, although with more complex situations and an increased number of variables with which to contend. The basic principle, however, remains the same. Humans are always attempting to improve their situation by efforts to one more favorable to them.

What most don’t realize, however, is that the conditions they are attempting to modify, are in most cases, non-linear. These efforts are almost bound to fail unless the differences between linear and non-linear systems are understood. The non-linear theory holds that change in a situation or environmental disaster provides a disordered state from which a new order emerges, presumably better suited to the changes that have taken place.

Additionally, the amount of time between an originating stimulus and an event is a critical variable. Suppose the time between the originating event and the next event is short. In that case, it is easier to ascribe a cause and effect relationship between them. On the other hand, many of these time spans are longer-term periods. It is often difficult to perceive a cause-and-effect relationship between them a month or more after the originating event.

Another critical factor often neglected is that longer-term goals of group survival or group success must take precedence over the group’s desire(s) for immediate gratification. This tug of war between prioritizing short-term or long-term goals often undermines the potential survival of the group. It does not seem to be a factor in many current political causes.

There are many environmental conditions and interactive systems that are not susceptible to interventions. To a significant extent, these systems are elements of a non-linear process. The relationship between ecological change acting as a catalyst for re-ordering and developing new responses to environmental changes must always be kept in mind.

Chapter 1

Introduction and Overview

Most humans share an admirable trait. It is the desire to continually improve their lot in life by