Summary of Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov's Secular Cycles

By IRB Media

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Book Preview:

#1 The modern science of population dynamics began with the publication of An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798. Malthus pointed out that when population increases beyond the means of subsistence, food prices increase, real wages decline, and per capita consumption drops.

#2 The Malthusian-Ricardian theory was first put forward by historians such as Michael Postan and Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie. It explained the long-term price trends of food better than the monetarist theory.

#3 The Malthusian model, which was the basis of Postan and Le Roy Ladurie’s theories, was flawed because it ignored the social structure. It attempted to explain long-term trends in economic growth and income distribution, but it was doomed from the start because it ignored the most important part of the equation: the surplus-extraction relationship between the direct producers and the ruling class.

#4 The Malthusian model neglects an important explanatory variable: the state. States are not simply created and manipulated by dominant classes, but they also compete with the elites in appropriating resources from the economy.

• Language: English
• Publisher: IRB Media
• Release date: May 18, 2022
• ISBN: 9798822520363

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Insights on Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov's Secular Cycles

Contents

Insights from Chapter 1

Insights from Chapter 2

Insights from Chapter 3

Insights from Chapter 4

Insights from Chapter 5

Insights from Chapter 6

Insights from Chapter 7

Insights from Chapter 8

Insights from Chapter 9

Insights from Chapter 10

Insights from Chapter 11

Insights from Chapter 1

#1

The modern science of population dynamics began with the publication of An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798. Malthus pointed out that when population increases beyond the means of subsistence, food prices increase, real wages decline, and per capita consumption drops.

#2

The Malthusian-Ricardian theory was first put forward by historians such as Michael Postan and Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie. It explained the long-term price trends of food better than the monetarist theory.

#3

The Malthusian model, which was the basis of Postan and Le Roy Ladurie’s theories, was flawed because it ignored the social structure. It attempted to explain long-term trends in economic growth and income distribution, but it was doomed from the start because it ignored the most important part of the equation: the surplus-extraction relationship between the direct producers and the ruling class.

#4

The Malthusian model neglects an important explanatory variable: the state. States are not simply created and manipulated by dominant classes, but they also compete with the elites in appropriating resources from the economy.

#5

There are recurrent long-term oscillations in European history, and the cause is population growth. The seeds of this theory were planted by Malthus, who argued that population growth causes social crisis indirectly by affecting social institutions.

#6

The secular cycles that affect agrarian societies can only be explained by the interaction between several interlinked variables: economic, social structure, and political.

#7

The demographic theory states that the population density in relation to the carrying capacity of the local region is the key variable. The theory states that as population density approaches the carrying capacity, a number of related changes affect the society. There are shortages of land and food, and an oversupply of labor.

#8

The typical effects of population growth are high rents, increasing fragmentation of peasant holdings, and increased migration of landless peasants to cities. Urbanization increases. The demand for manufactures increases, because the elites profit from high rents on land and lower labor costs.

#9

The law of diminishing returns is a result of the fact that the amount of surplus produced by cultivators is nonlinearly related to their numbers. As a result, at a certain critical population density, which we have defined as the carrying capacity, the surplus becomes zero.

#10

During the late stages of population growth, when commoners are already suffering from economic difficulties, the elites are enjoying a golden age. But as general population grows closer to the carrying capacity, surplus production begins to decline, and the average elite income begins to fall.

#11

During the stagflation phase, economic inequality increases within each social stratum: peasants, minor and middle-rank nobility, and the magnates. This creates pressure for social mobility, both upward and downward.

#12

The declining incomes of the majority of aristocrats have two important consequences: intensifying oppression of the peasants by the elites and increasing intraelite competition for scarce resources.

#13

The second consequence of plunging elite incomes is increased intraelite competition. This intraelite competition can be resolved by the state suppressing overt violence, which in turn can be measured by the level of higher education and civil litigation.

#14

Elites can also improve their incomes by attaching themselves to the retinues of powerful magnates. However, there are not enough resources for everyone, and certain segments of elites, or groups aspiring to elite status, inevitably end up as the losers.

#15

The state is forced to expand its taxation base, but the amount of surplus production declines as more people are required to work in order to produce this same amount. As a result, the state is quickly increasing taxes, but it is still heading for fiscal crisis.

#16

The feedback effect of population growth on sociopolitical instability is twofold. First, when the state is weak or absent, the populace will