The Predictability Factor

By Dr. Bill Agee and Dr. Johnny Hunt

The Predictability Factor is a unique book addressing the predictability of future success of new churches and existing churches attempting to turn from decline to growth. Predictability is something sought in virtually every field. For example, in weather forecasting, the ability to understand what components in the atmosphere produce predictable results can save many lives. In the field of church starting and church revitalization, the ability to identify the key components necessary to produce success can make the difference in the church surviving and thriving or dying. The Predictability Factor identifies the key components of success and why they are such difference makers.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Jun 2, 2015
• ISBN: 9781503570016

Dr. Bill Agee

Dr. Bill Agee was born and grew up in Northeastern Oklahoma, in what is known as Tornado Alley. At an early age, Dr. Agee felt an intense fascination with weather and predictability. For the past thirty-eight years, he has been involved in starting new churches and helping revitalize existing churches. His new book The Predictability Factor brings his fascination with predictability and predicting future success of new churches together as he identifies the key components necessary to produce predictable success for churches. Dr. Agee earned a master’s degree from Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary and a doctor of ministry from Southeastern Baptist Theological seminary.

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Copyright © 2015 by Dr. Bill Agee.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

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Rev. date: 05/18/2015

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Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Introduction

PART ONE

The Research Project

Chapter One    The Predictability Factor: In The Beginning

Chapter Two    Church Planting Context: My First Church Plant

Chapter Three    Key Components: Leadership

Chapter Four    Expectations Identified And Evaluated

Chapter Five    Lessons Learned From The Research Project

PART TWO

Implications And Ramifications Of The Research Project

Chapter Six    Implications Of The Research Project

Chapter Seven    Conclusions Drawn From The Research Project

Chapter Eight    Evaluation,… Next Steps,…What Now?

I dedicate this work to my wife and my family, who continually inspire and challenge me to go beyond what I believe I am capable of and achieve things I never thought possible.

FOREWORD

My friend and co-laborer, Dr. Bill Agee, has written a masterpiece to aid in the success of church planting and church revitalization. "The Predictability Factor", was written from Dr. Agee’s years of experience in this field of ministry. He is a seasoned practitioner and has been an incredible asset to the ministry of First Baptist Church, Woodstock. If you have a desire to see a church birthed or revitalized this book will give you great insight into how to make it happen.

Dr. Johnny Hunt

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I want to acknowledge the tireless and self-less church planters and church revitalization pastors who serve often in anonymity, without recognition for their sacrifice. These men and their families make a tremendous difference in the expansion of God’s kingdom around the world. To all who are currently serving or will serve in the future, you have my unreserved respect and gratitude for all you do.

INTRODUCTION

Church planting has seen a dramatic shift in both its prominence and importance over the past few decades. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, church planting was hardly on the horizon and certainly not mainstream. Occasionally a person would strike out on his own to start a new "mission." Little was known about how to start a new church and see it become successful.

The new missions were not talked about much, and when they were, it was more in a negative tone, by pastors who feared the new mission might take some of their members away. While many attitudes have changed over the years, the idea that new churches are a threat to existing churches remains to this day, but the concept of partnership has made a tremendous difference in the last few years to dispel the fear of new churches.

In the past several decades, church planting has achieved a new level of visibility for my lifetime. More training is available than ever before, more resources are available than ever before, and more partners are available than ever before, yet the success rate of new churches has changed minimally from decades earlier. It would appear that the degree of correlation between additional training and additional partnership, resulting in greater church planting success, is not as anticipated.

The Question Is, Why?

Why is it not possible to predict future success of church plants in a significant way? Why is it not possible to know what leads to an enhanced predictability of success? Why do new churches still fail at an alarming rate, with no real ability to change the results? Why is it not possible to turn the failure percentage around to a success percentage?

Perhaps Another Question Should Be Asked

What if it were possible to do all the things listed above? What if it were possible to greatly enhance the predictability of success in church plants? Would that mean an expansion of God’s kingdom? Would that mean more people saved and serving the Lord? Would that not encourage churches to get involved in such a relevant and exciting work of God?

I believe it would.

This book has been in my heart for a long time. However, without the evidence to support the premise that it is possible to enhance the predictability of future success of church plants, the book was not written.

I believe it is possible to enhance predictability. I have seen it and experienced it. Now the evidence can support the premise. This book is from my heart but also from my experience. God has shown a degree of his favor on the ministry to which he called me and allowed a significant number of successful new churches to be birthed, though a few were unsuccessful.

I want to share some of the journey to which God has called me and my wife. Part of that sense of calling has led us to this time in our ministry to write this book. My first book, "Church Planting: This is NOT a Manual", was to point out that church planting is more of a lifestyle based on a calling than a manual to follow. This book also is not intended to be a manual. It is a collection of God moments over-time that have been born out of experience and trust in God. Whether or not this premise is true for anyone else, it has been true in my ministry.

I hope this book provides encouragement for people to risk knowing that God is there and in total control. I hope this book challenges pastors to bring new life into the world through new churches. I hope this book becomes a source of processes and protocols leading to new churches making a kingdom difference in the world. I hope this book challenges the status quo and leads to church planters considering the possibility of church plants succeeding and flourishing as the standard, not the exception. Basically, I hope this book changes the way people think about planting a church.

Church Revitalization

I also hope this book provides encouragement to pastors of churches who, for longer than they care to admit, have lost their way. Their church is no longer in a position to effectively minister the Good News in the neighborhood or region where it is located. There is no clearly defined vision of where the church needs to be one, two, five years down the road. Yet, the pastor wants to see it turn around.

The church did not come to this position over-night. It was a process. Much like when a person attends a movie. When the person first walks in, he cannot see anything, but after a while, his eyes adjust and he gets used to the dark. That is what can happen in church. Over time, people can get used to the dark. The key components discovered through a research project and identified in this book, which lead to enhanced predictability of success of church plants, also apply to churches in need of revitalization.

Several years ago, a song was recorded and used this phrase several times, I hope you get the chance to live like you were dying. The churches in need of revitalization have lost the urgency to live with the end in mind. What would be different in your life if you knew you were dying? What would be important now that was not important yesterday?

Some pastors preside over churches with assets but with no man-power or direction to utilize them for the good of the kingdom Just a few people are left, and their offerings do not even pay the bills, much less carry out a global evangelism ministry. The pastor wants to see it live on and make a kingdom difference but struggles to determine what must be done to see the church alive again.

Pastors of churches in need of revitalization feel they have done all they know, but nothing has changed. They have prayed more than ever before, yet nothing has happened. They have fired all the spiritual bullets in their gun, and the enemy lives on.

A number of pastors of churches in the process of church revitalization have now arrived at a place where they are tired and realize they are not the person God will use to turn the church around, yet they still want to see it live on. They are looking for another church to take the reins and cast a fresh vision. They are looking for a magic bullet … but none exists.

Still, other pastors are sensing a call from God to step into the leadership role in a church in need of revitalization. What does that call mean in reality? What is it a call to do? Certainly it is not a call to business as usual nor is it a call to destroy the heritage of a once-vibrant church. Knowing and assembling the key components identified in this book can have a dramatic effect on the future of the church.

Things to Consider

As a revitalization pastor, you will not be the typical pastor of a typical Baptist Church, with all the trappings that accompany the role. If that is your desire, there are already thousands of existing churches needing pastors.

• It is more than likely that the typical and mundane have brought the church into a need for revitalization in the first place.

• To attempt to keep alive and reproduce the programs and ministries utilized in the past, even in the glory