Conflict with Russia: Part I & Part Ii

By Dr. Alexander Nemets

What's the Book about?
- Primarily, it is about the developing conflict between Russia, on one hand, and America and entire West on other hand. - The war in Eastern Ukraine is described, in this Book, in a detailed way, particularly, the summer of 2014 and January-February of 2015. More than one chapter of the Book is devoted to the essence of Putin regime and the explanation of its antagonism with America. - One chapter of the Book is devoted to the murder of Boris Nemtsov and major criminals behind the scene. - Stagnation and decline of the Russian social-economic system and suffering of its people, especially in 2014-2015, is addressed as well. (The conclusions are based on multiple facts and figures). - This is accompanied by rapid rise of Russia's military expenditures and the upgrading of its military capabilities. Between 2013 and 2015 Russian real military budget may increase 2.5 times! - The role of China (generally, a neutral one) in this Conflict is described as well. The author is literate in Mandarin, expert in China's Real economic potential, China-Russia ties and China's economic expansion in Central Asia. One of the chapters is devoted to swift rise of China-Israel relations in all areas. Israel may well become an ideal mediator between America and China!

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Jun 10, 2015
• ISBN: 9781503572652

Dr. Alexander Nemets

"Dr.Alexandr Nemets, born in 1955, graduated from Moscow Institute (University) of Steel and Alloys in 1978, Engaged in research of China and Japan (S&T sector, general economy etc.) from 1985. Worked in Presidium of Academy of Sciences USSR (Russian Academy of Sciences) as an expert in China and Japan in 1986-1992. Defended candidate thesis "High-tech sector of China's economy" in Central Economic-Mathematical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences) in 1991; got diploma of Candidate in Economics in 1992 (certifies in 2008 as the equivalent of an earned Ph.D. in Economics). Immigrated to USA in December 1994. From this moment, lived in Twin City (Minneapolis and suburbs). In 1995, served as a guest researcher in Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota,. In 1996-2004 worked in SAIC (Science Applications International Corp.). Cooperated with Washington D.C. think tanks American Foreign Policy Council and Enterprise Institute Published several hundred articles in U.S. media (primarily at Newsmax.com web-site in 2001-2003). Published several books, including "Growth of China and Consequences for Eastern Regions of former USSR", Edwin Mellen Press, 1995, "China, Russia and the fate of Taiwan", published independently ,written jointly with Dr.John Scherer, 2000. Completed several major research projects for Fort Leavenworth and other U.S. military installations and agencies.

Book preview

Copyright © 2015 by Dr. Alexander Nemets.

CONTENTS

PART I

Preface for the Book

1. Start of work over the Book: The author meets a stranger or ‘Conversation with Ted’

2. The Work over Chapter I

3. Work over Chapter II, Chapter III, and Applications

4. At the End of October 2014: Several Major Recommendations

5. Some Final Words

CHAPTER I

(finished approximately by 06.20.14)

General Situation in First Half of 2014. Preconditions of the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

1. Brief History of the Author’s Activity in the Research of China, Russia, and Chinese-Russian Ties

1) Early Stage

2) In the U.S.

3) In 2000-2004

4) Projects for Fort Leavenworth

References

2. Putin Regime and its activities

1) Major Trends in Russia and Its ‘World Policy’ in 2005-2012

2) Events in 2013 – Beginning of 2014

3) How Does the Putin Regime Treat its Own People?

4) Some More Basic Realities of Russia

5) Eventually, How the U.S. Should Treat the Putin Regime?

6) Two Demographic Tables

7) Additional Comments

8) Some Summarizing

Let’s make some preliminary conclusions:

3. Contradictions and Conflicts between China and Russia:

Introduction

Detailed Content of paragraph 3

1) Central Asia: Major Struggle Spot between China and Russia

2) Other Major Points of Conflict between China and Russia

3) Most Important Strategic Items as Sources of Mutual Distrust

4) Relations between Chinese and Russian People

4. Show Me Money

1) Comparing the Largest Banks of the U.S. and China

2) Comparing the Entire Banking (Financial) Systems of the U.S. and China

3) Cautious GDP Estimation for China Accomplished by World Bank

4) The Author Introduces Correction (very briefly)

5. Accommodation to the New World

1) End of ‘End of History’

2) Tragedy of Ukraine (Situation by End-June)

3) How America and the West Should React?

4) Possible Complications

CHAPTER II

From the End of June to the end of July 2014

1. End-June 2014: Summarizing and Some Prospects (finished by 06.30.14)

1) The War is Underway

2) What should be done – by U.S. Administration

3) Role of China

2. War against Putin (First Week of July)

1) The First Victory

2) Human Losses, Material Losses

3) The Next Stage of War, Not the Last One

4) What Could and Should Be Done to Prevent Destructive Actions of the Putin Regime in Ukraine (and elsewhere)?

3. Third Package of Sanctions against Moscow is a Necessity! (finished by 07.15.14)

1) Eastern Ukraine: Destruction and Losses

2) Results of the Already Taken Sanctions against Moscow

3) Take Serious Sanctions against Russia ASAP!

4. Finally, Direct Invasion (Situation by July 17, 2014)

1) Major Documents Regarding Russian Direct Involvement in the Conflict

2) Ukrainian Expert: Conclusions and Forecasts

3) The Author’s Short Conclusion

5. After Jet Downing: Major Features by July 23 (finished by 07.28.14)

1) They have Killed After All our Ferdinand

2) Human Losses: Thousands, Not Hundreds

3) New Look at Material Losses

CHAPTER 3

From end of July to mid. August 2014

1. Russian Invasion of Ukraine at the End of July 2014 (finished by 08.07.14)

1) Hybrid War (Warfare): What’s that?

2) Shelling of Ukrainian Border Districts: the Chronicle (most important facts only with brief comments) of July 19-31

3) Other Components of Putin’s Hybrid War in Ukraine

4) Flows of Terrorists-Mercenaries and Weaponry for Them from Russia to Ukraine

5) Very Brief Postscript

2. Destruction of Major Cities and Towns in Donetsk and Luhansk Regions – Second Half of July – August 1-10, 2014 (finished by 08.18.14)

1) Luhansk City Destruction

2) Destruction of Donetsk City, Horlivka Town, and Other Towns around Donetsk

3. Summarizing Part 1 of the Book and Some Conclusions (finished by 08.26.14)

1) Dad of Huckleberry Finn

2) How great are Human Losses in the Eastern Ukraine War?

3) Some Additional Data and Recommendations

APPLICATION I

(finished by 09.06.14)

Financial-Economic Crisis of Russia in 2014

1. Oil and Gas Industry Crisis

1.1. General Sanctions

1.2. Gazprom

1.3. Rosneft

1.4. Falling Oil – and Gas – Prices

2. Troubles with the Ruble

3. RTS Index and General Stock Market Situation

4. Russian Government Hard Currency and Gold Reserves

5. Some Conclusions and Forecasts (made at mid September 2014)

APPLICATION II:

(finished by 09.16.14)

Your Head is at the Stake, America

1. Who is an Extremist?

2. New RF Military Doctrine – Preconditions

3. New RF Military Doctrine Emerges

4. New RF Hyper-Dangerous Weapon and Related Items

5. Some Conclusions

6. What Putin and Co. is about and How the U.S. and the West Should Treat the Putin Regime

APPLICATION III

(initially compiled in February 2014, upgraded on 09.20-24.14)

Israel and China – Way to Success

Brief Content

Foreword

I. From 16th Century to the Beginning of 1992

II. 1992 – 2012

1. General Picture of Two Countries’ S&T and Economic Cooperation by 2010-2012

2. Concrete Facts and Examples of Bilateral S&T Coop by the Beginning of 2013

III. Netanyahu’s Visit to China in May 2013 and Its Direct Consequences

1. Pure Political Items

2. Economic and S&T Items

3. China Proposed Broad Cooperation to America; Brief Conclusions

IV. New Rise of China-Israeli Ties in S&T and Other Areas in 2014

1. Smooth Development of China-Israeli Ties in January-April 2014

2. Important Events of May 20-21, 2014 in Israel

3. Short Conclusions

V. U.S. Forces should be moved from East Asia to East Europe!

APPLICATION IV:

(finished by 10.15.15)

Point of No-Return

1. Message in Newsweek Magazine and Related Items

2. Putin Can Return His Credit…

3. …But He Doesn’t Want!

4. Indeed, Point of No-Return

5. East Europe Also Moves Away from RF

6. Germany Joins ‘United Front’ Against RF and Some More Facts

7. Conclusions, Forecasts, and Recommendations

APPLICATION V

(finished by 10.25.14)

New Complications, Hybrid War, and Related Items

1. The 10 Days of October 16-25

2. Some Conclusions and Warnings

3. Destroy Putin’s Agents!

1) Russian Spies in Czech and Poland; ‘Hybrid War’ as New Reality

2) Sleeping Spies: Comments of Experts

3) Most rational recommendations

INSTEAD OF POSTSCRIPT:

(finished by 10.25.14)

1. The Events of Mid- August – Mid-September 2014 in Ukraine

2. Concrete Facts and Figures regarding Human Losses.

3. Material Losses Related to Conflict

PART II

CHAPTER 1 (finished by 12.15.14)

Waves of Hatred

1. How many Russian soldiers and Russian mercenaries are killed in Eastern Ukraine?

2. Losses of Mercenaries-terrorists from Russia

3. Human life price in Russian is very low

4. Losses of Ukrainian pro-Russian terrorists

5. Losses of Ukraine troops and volunteers, total losses of combatants

6. Ukraine civilians losses

7. Total losses summarizing and some prospects

CHAPTER 2 (finished by 12.31.14)

War for the Right Cause

1. Congress passes Resolution H758

RESOLUTION

2. Brief comment on the Resolution H758 (later - H758)

3. Senate passes Bill S2828

4. Congress passes soft variety of Bill S2828

5. Comments of Ukraine media on passing the Bill S2828 and its softer variety

6. President Signed the Bill!

7. Direct economic and military consequences of the Bill passing and signing: America’s allies increased aid to Ukraine, lethal weapon will come soon

7.1. Canada, Australia, UK

7.2. Poland and Lithuania

CHAPTER 3 (finished by 02.05.15)

Mariupol shelling, Donbas escalation, related items

1. Mariupol shelling: major facts, Ukraine reaction

2. Western leaders’ reaction on Mariupol shelling and new RF offensive

2.1. East European reaction

2.2. Reaction of Canada, France, Germany

2.3. Reaction of USA and EU leaders

3. Financial support and weapon for Ukraine, instantly! And really tough sanctions for Moscow! (U.S. experts and other serious persons’ proposals and requirements).

3.1. Requirements and proposals of George Soros: huge financial aid for Ukraine

3.2. Detailed proposal of leading U.S. experts: military aid for Ukraine

3.3. Some other proposals

4. Some additional information and final conclusions

4.1. Some important enough data from China’s sources (chronological order)

4.2. Final portion of important information

4.3. And now proposals – in unusual form

CHAPTER 4 (finished by 02.28.15)

How America and the West should treat Putin?

Instead of preface

1. The real victims quantity

1.1. Two very important estimations

1.2. Some earlier estimations and figures

1.3. The new estimations of human losses in eastern Ukraine war by end of January 2015

2. Finally, provide defensive (including lethal) weapon for Ukraine!

2.1. Important Resolution and Bills passed by U.S. Congress in December 2014 and related items

2.2. Situation development in January – beginning of February 2015

2.3. Some new important projects-proposals

3. Most effective financial-economic tools to smash Putin regime and to help Ukraine

3.1. Switching RF off SWIFT payment system as the most effective tool

3.2. Searching for huge money of Putin &sycophants hidden at the West, Yukos-Rosneft case and future reparations

3.3. Diminishing Europe dependence from Gazprom

3.4. Economic fall and malcontents inside RF

4. Weapon for Ukraine, finally!

5. Preliminary conclusions: How to treat Putin?

CHAPTER 5 (finished by 03.15.2015)

China reacts on Ukraine crisis Situation by March 2015

Preface

1. China’s media, Chinese experts and Chinese officials react on Ukraine conflict

2. China’s reaction on Nemtsov murder

3. Some additional facts and preliminary conclusions

4. Western experts are changing their position Just several related messages (article reviews):

5. About North Korea, Vietnam and U.S. military & geopolitical doctrines

6. Postscript

CHAPTER 6 (finished by 03.31.15)

Nemtsov murder, Nemtsov heritage and related items

1. First impression (from 2nd letter for intellectuals, sent to the readers on March 3 2015; slightly improved)

2. U.S. Senate Resolution

3. Who killed Nemtsov

3.1. Indeed, who murdered Nemtsov? (messages in chronological order)

3.2. Hitler nature of Putin regime and how it should be treated (in chronological order)

4. ‘Deliberate depopulation’ in RF (time to reveal bad secrets)

4.1. Some very unpleasant statistics

4.2. Some statistics mostly provided by Boris Nemtsov

4.3. Additional data on drugs and alcohol

5. Now some final conclusions

CHAPTER 7 (finished by 04.10.15)

RF prepares to Big War

1. Article of Dr.Illarionov and some comments

2. Data provided by Wikipedia Report RF Defense budget

3. More recent data regarding RF military expenses

4. Conclusions regarding RF real defense spending in 2013-2015

5. Some social-economic consequences of RF military spending race

POSTSCRIPT (finished by 04.28.15)

1. Military-industrial complex as ‘Salvador’ of RF economy

2. Defense budget, defense industry, military modernization

3. Putin and Death are synonyms for you, America!

4. Several final words

PART I

Preface for the Book

1. Start of work over the Book: The author meets a stranger or ‘Conversation with Ted’

The talk took place on April 21, 2014. The author occasionally met an interesting person at the light rail station, near Minneapolis International Airport, speaking a little bit of Russian, though with heavy American accent. We exchanged several phrases, then a more detailed conversation followed, and the author got the following information:

The guy, Ted (he refused to give his second name because of privacy considerations) is a highly educated person who is about 48 years old; he is regularly visiting (or visited during the last 10 years) several dozen world countries (so he is high-rank business executive or maybe he is fulfilling some duties for the Federal Government).

During the last two or three years, Ted spent a lot of time in Moscow. He got married there and, by April 2014, had a small baby. Several days ago, I sent my wife and baby to Israel; that’s, naturally, because of family safety considerations. Your wife is Jewish? the author asked. No, she is Christian, but, it seems, it would be inappropriate for her and for the child to stay in Moscow these days. And they still don’t have U.S. visas.

Ted also stated that recently, during the first four months of 2014, American colony in Moscow somewhat decreased. And the remaining Americans in Moscow are very anxious for understandable reasons. They consider the Putins policy – towards Ukraine, towards the U.S., towards the entire West - as an extremely dangerous and unpredictable one. Putins military invasion in Ukraine is quite possible in May or June, Ted claimed.

The author asked: Maybe, Russian economy became so strong, Russia’s Comprehensive National Power (CNP) became so solid that Putin, assured of his forces, decided to ‘spit on America’ and to restore the former USSR, despite any Western objections? Ted decisively rejected such a claim: No, Russia is a weak country, and a lot of Russians – particularly outside of Moscow – live in poverty. We agreed that so called ‘Putin prosperity’ is nothing more than a mirage, and ‘shining Moscow’ is merely a façade of the regime. So what had happened in March-April 2014? Putin got enraged by the toppling of Moscow marionettes in Kiev and tried to grasp at least some pieces of Ukraine and to destabilize its remaining part. No doubt, Putin fiercely hates the West and, especially, America, and his entire policy is based on this hatred.

What is the proper policy of America and the America-led West towards Russia?

Ted made such a question after the author introduced himself as a Ph.D. in Economics, engaged – for several decades – in the research of China and Russia. The author made a following lengthy answer: First of all, it is necessary to recognize some basic realities regarding Russia. Recall, what Confucius told his disciples, more than 2,500 years ago, when they asked him: How should we transform China? Confucius instantly answered: Primarily, we should rectify the names. It meant: for the beginning, it is necessary to recognize and determine the basic realities.

So, what are the basic realities of Russia? First, let’s look at Russian population dynamics. According to CIA data (The CIA World Factbook yearbook, reliable enough source), during the last several years Russia was still suffering from depopulation. In 2012-2013, the annual number of deaths in Russia used to surpass the number of births by roughly 250,000, or even more. The quantity of ‘available population’ in Russia – if you trust Russian official statistical service Rosstat - however, appeared to be almost permanent, around 142.5 million people during these two years. In reality, the Putin regime managed to support such a stable quantity of people in Russia by ‘importing’ slaves (that’s their real status in Moscow and other Russian big cities), mostly from impoverished republics of Central Asia and some other former Soviet republics.

What’s really remarkable (and terrible) is that official Russian statistics deny unpleasant figures provided by the CIA; Rosstat claims that, to the contrary, some small natural increase of population was taking place in Russia during 2012-2013. Official statistics ignore these excessive 250,000 deaths a year! De-facto they make secret (unregistered) deaths. Mostly those who died were the homeless (at least 8 million are homeless in Russia in 2013-2014) and those secretly killed and secretly buried by criminal gangs. The cost of human life is extremely low in Russia, especially at ‘lower levels’. Russia rulers – including these at the top level – are not interested in these ‘useless’ or even ‘harmful’ people. It is a cannibal practice and it won’t be an exaggeration to identify the Putin regime as a ‘cannibal regime’. There is a lot of other proof for such a definition. (A lot of details on this account are given in Chapter I of the Book.)

The second basic reality of Russia is as follows: the Putin regime fiercely hates the democracy, namely, the Western democracies and, primarily, America. Should I give proof? Evidently, we got a lot of proofs beginning from the famous ‘anti-American’ speech of Putin’s in February 2007 in Munich. (A lot of details on this account are given in Chapter I of the Book.)

The third basic reality of Russia is as follows: the Putin regime is a lethal (existential) enemy of America and its close allies. According to U.S. military experts, the Russian Army in 2013 was, generally, a rather backward army with, in practice, a single exclusion: in 2007-2014, the Putin regime spent a huge sum of money on upgrading Russian nuclear triad (ICBMs, strategic bombers, nuclear submarines). (A lot of details on this account are given in Application II of the Book.)

The fourth basic reality: Moscow is engaged in aggression in Georgia and Ukraine; Moldova and the Baltic republics would be the next. Who will be the new victim and/or strike object? Generally, ‘aggression’ or ‘expansion’ are too weak words when it comes to the Putin regime. (A lot of details on this account are given in Chapter I and II of the Book.)

These are basic realities to account, to make conclusions, to work out the correct policies towards Russia.

Eventually, how the U.S. should treat the Putin regime?

(The author continued his conversation with Ted) This includes three major components:

a) Pure economic component of necessary measures. By April 21, 2014 (day of conversation), America introduced some small economic sanctions against Russia. They gave definite, though limited, effect. These economic sanctions should be expanded and intensified up to the maximal degree available. (Details are given in Chapter II, subchapter Third package of sanctions is a necessity!, and in Application I Economic troubles of Russia.)

b) Social component of necessary measures. Quasi-patriotic rise brought the level of Putin support, among Russians, up to roughly 80% in March 2014, after annexation of Crimea. That’s very remarkable: 20% of Russian people managed to preserve a sober viewpoint. That’s really splendid! These are the people of an independent mind. It is easy to see that the U.S. and the West have a lot of potential friends in Russia. They should be addressed.

c) Military component of necessary measures. Military potential of America and its close allies should be entirely utilized against Russian aggression. And let’s finally get real: China is no enemy of America, not even its adversary. China is merely a competitor. Leave China alone. (Details are given in Chapter I and in Application III of the Book.)

That’s the end of the conversation with Ted recorded on the evening of April 21, 2014.

The author compiled this conversation in a week (roughly by the end of April) and slightly edited. By this moment, the situation in Ukraine additionally deteriorated. It became known that several hundred people – mostly civilians and Ukrainian servicemen – were killed in Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Eastern Ukraine) alone. The Odessa incident on May 2, when about 50 people had been killed, aggravated the situation. And the first weeks of May brought new escalations of killings and destructions to Donbass. At the same time, it became understandable that pro-Moscow ‘small fools’, under the leadership of Russian secret service agents, occupied most parts of Donbass. The Ukraine war really started.

The author, after long hesitation, started writing the Book on approximately May 22-23. From the very beginning, the author chose the name Conflict with Russia (and not Conflict in Ukraine or something of this kind). That’s because it became clear: the conflict won’t stay inside Ukraine, the West should and would come to Ukraine’s aid, and so would the conflict between the America-led West and Russia. The events of the following several months showed that intuition didn’t fail the author.

2. The Work over Chapter I

In the first subchapter, the author gave the major features and the history of his own research and publishing activity. Then the author did his best to describe the overall preconditions to this great conflict (no exaggerations!), initially in Ukraine and later, evidently, the global one. Concretely, the author used the above described ‘Conversation with Ted’ as the base, unwrapped and expanded it, used scientific arguments in maximal degree available. That’s how the items and its activities have been compiled.

Then, the author used a significant part of his China-related archive to show the depth of mistrust and contradictions between China and Russia and to demonstrate that China is no ally of Russia’s and won’t become such an ally in the process of conflict between the West and Russia.

In the subchapter Show Me Money, the author analyzed, while basing on Chinese and international statistics, the banking sector of China and made conclusions regarding Real GDP of China. (The author has been engaged in these researches for many years.)

In the subchapter Accommodation to the New World, the author showed that End of History, proclaimed by Fukuyama in 1989, is over. And new geopolitical situations require the new approach.

The author finished the work over Chapter I on approximately June 20, 2014. By this moment, the author knew for sure that the entire Book Conflict with Russia will be compiled, whatever it takes.

3. Work over Chapter II, Chapter III, and Applications

In Chapter II, the author did his best to estimate the scales of human losses and material losses at the frame of East Ukraine conflict by end-June. And of course the author spared no effort to show the guilt and crimes of the Putin regime. The author used some strong expressions (invented this spring in Ukraine and widespread rapidly all over Eastern Europe and Russia itself) in regards to Moscow top ruler, but they perfectly reflect the reality. The author once again stressed in this chapter the necessity to intensify sanctions against the Putin regime; and just in two weeks, by the end of July, the author’s wish became true!

And let’s stop here. The book speaks for itself!

4. At the End of October 2014: Several Major Recommendations

By the end of October 2014, the author managed to recognize some items much better than at the beginning of work over the Book in May 2014. After all, a lot had happened during these several months. Particularly, the author got solid ground for working out the following most important recommendations:

1) America literally got stuck in struggle with Putin h**** regime. Moreover, Putin regime directly endangers the life and existence of America. The destruction of this regime became the Task #1. Only after this task is accomplished, it would be possible for America to move ahead, to resume its development. This struggle would require strong political will, huge energy and money. ‘Cheap decisions’ are absent here. 2) The rear side is the most fragile and vulnerable point of America in this struggle. It is necessary to get rid ASAP of multiple Putin’s spies and influence agents. Remark, Russian-language TV channels broadcast in USA is a mighty anti-American tool of Putin regime. 3) China is no-enemy of America and no-ally of Russia. Any claims regarding ‘Russian-Chinese Axis’ should be considered as a dangerous provocation.

5. Some Final Words

The author considers that the Book Conflict with Russia: Part I is extremely actual and very useful, because it is primarily telling the truth. Let’s now look at what it gives to the Jewish Cause (the author is Jewish though not a religious one).

1) The Book contributes to the struggle of America and America led West against the Putin regime. And, naturally, America’s cause coincides with the American-Jewish cause and the world-Jewish cause.

2) The Book shows, in detail, the process of Israeli – China tandem forming and explains the important role of this tandem. First, Israel will be (or maybe is already) the perfect middleman-mediator between China and the U.S., thus assisting a lot to solving all kinds of problems between the two great countries. This may bring incalculable profits to America and rise Israeli world position! And, particularly, Israel may influence China, so China would distance a little bit from Russia and take ‘strict neutrality’ in the conflict between the West and Russia.

3) The Book may help – in unexpectedly serious ways – to American Russian-language Jewish community. The struggle between America and the Putin regime may take very ugly forms, and what problems await the Russian-language Jewish community? And my Book Conflict with Russia: Part I, in practice the only book of such kind in the American market, may become some kind of ‘safety chart’ for thousands of people making our community.

Finally, the author uses the opportunity to show his gratitude to following people (besides, primarily, my father Vladlen S. Nemets):

· Brent Routman, high-rank lawyer and good friend, who helped the author in numerous cases.

· Natalya Sysa, the editor of the Book.

· Viktor Tukhlynovich, the banker with Wells Fargo Bank; the author discussed with him the Book, chapter-by-chapter, and got a lot of good advices.

By the way, the author in admiration of the braveness of Ukrainian servicemen and volunteers who stopped Putin gangs in Donbass.

Dr. Alexandr Nemets October 31, 2014

Chapter I

General Situation in First Half of 2014. Preconditions of the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

1. Brief History of the Author’s Activity in the Research of China, Russia, and Chinese-Russian Ties

1) Early Stage

In February 1986, the author got a position of Senior Researcher in the Presidium of Academy of Sciences USSR (at that moment, an extremely prestigious organization, formally in charge of all scientific research activity in USSR). This can be considered as the initial point of the author’s professional work in China’s research. The task was as follows: while using the author’s expertise in reading Chinese and Japanese, to compile the comprehensive picture of S&T sector development in Japan and, particularly, in China, as soon as possible. Very soon it appeared that China-related work makes at least 90% of the author’s work activity.

During 1986-1991, the author compiled several hundred reports regarding the economic trends in China, the social-political changes in this country and, especially, regarding China’s rapidly developing – though comparatively small – high-tech sector. The accumulated data allowed the author to compile and defend, in December 1991, the Candidate dissertation in Economics (approximately equal to Ph.D. thesis in Economics) High-Tech Sector of Chinese Economy and Spread of Computer Utilizing in China, in Central Economic-Mathematical Institute, AN USSR.

The author should emphasize that in September 1989, in accordance to invitation of China’s Academy of Sciences (CAS), he made a trip to Beijing and visited the leading CAS research institutes, namely, these engaged in microelectronics, computers, and software. Between September 1989 and July 1993, the author accomplished 4 trips to China (two trips to Beijing and two to Manzhouli and Heihe, bordering Russia), each between one week and 10 days. Also, during the same period, the author made several trips to the regions of Russia, located to the east of Baikal Lake – Buryatia Republic, Chita region, and Amur region. This allowed the author to recognize the ‘economic invasion’ of China to Russian Transbaikal region and Russian Far East in 1992-1993.

2) In the U.S.

At the end of 1994, the author immigrated, with his family to Minnesota in the United States. Almost instantly, in January 1995, the author received the position of Guest Researcher in Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota, for one year. The author, with the help of Humphrey Institute, finished the book The Growth of China and Prospects for the Eastern Regions of the Former USSR and published it at Edwin Mellen Press Co. The author initially wrote this book in Moscow (in Russian), in 1994, on the base of materials accumulated during the ‘trips to the East’ in 1989-1993.

This book, in large degree, helped the author to get the position of the contractor in Denver division of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), in March 1996. While still staying in Minnesota and visiting Denver approximately once a year, the author concentrated on the research of Russia (political, military, economic trends), China (same items plus S&T sector development) and, especially, Chinese-Russian ties in all areas. The exchange with Denver was based on fax, phone, and mostly E-mail.

At approximately the same timeframe, in April 1996, the leaders of five countries – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan - signed a Shanghai long-term cooperation agreement, which was later upgraded to Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, which involved Uzbekistan as well. As a result, the author gave serious attention to China’s ‘economic expansion’ to Central Asia. The author recognized soon that relations in the triangle Beijing, Moscow, Tehran cannot be ignored.

Previously, the author would compile a large analytical report for SAIC (6000-7000 words once a week) during 1996-1999. The reports were based on materials available, in English, Chinese, Russian and sometimes Japanese, obtained via Internet and in University of Minnesota Wilson Library. The author uses now the opportunity to show his gratitude to Dr. John Battilega, then the chef of SAIC Denver division.

At the end of 1999, some problems interrupted ties between the author and SAIC. For the author, this became the stimulus to establish ties with some think tanks in Washington D.C., primarily the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Simultaneously, the author started compiling – while basing on all the data accumulated and all the analytical materials compiled during the previous years – the book Sino-Russian Military Relations: The Fate of Taiwan and The New Geopolitics.

The author compiled this book jointly with his friend Dr. John Scherer, who passed away in October 2011. Dr. Scherer made valuable contribution to the book. The book itself concentrated on the emerging of Chinese-Russian strategic-military alliance (both authors had no doubts here at that moment) during 1991-2000, the most dangerous sectors (primarily high-tech weaponry) of Chinese-Russian military-technological cooperation, and possible implications for the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan. The two authors registered the book in the Library of Congress, produced independently several dozen copies of this book, and sent it to the persons and organizations most interested in this subject. The book definitely solidified the author’s position as an expert in Chinese-Russian relations.

The author deliberately omitted a lot of small items, primarily, his Washington D.C. contacts and related orders, during this period.

3) In 2000-2004

In 2000-2003, the author resumed his work with the SAIC. This time, in accordance with direct tasks from Denver, the author concentrated on the research of certain segments of the Chinese economy, primarily oil and petrochemical industry, as well as on translations or ‘express translations’ of articles in Chinese military journals. Simultaneously, the author continued cooperation with the AFPC (thanks to its president Hermann Pirchner), especially, in research of China’s ‘economic expansion’ and ‘demographic expansion’ in eastern regions of Russia.

In May 2002, during some conference in Washington D.C., the author met with Dr. Constantine Menges, high-rank researcher in Hudson Institute and former assistant of National Security Adviser. The author spared no efforts to help Dr. Menges in compiling his book about military and military-technological ties of China and Russia. This cooperation continued up to the death of Dr. Menges in June 2004. The recommendation of Dr. Menges helped the author receive the position of contracting translator in Washington D.C. based Language Doctors Co.

Between August 2003 and November 2004, the author was engaged, in accordance to Language Doctors orders, in translation of Chinese military books from Chinese into English for the Department of Defense. Remarkably, the author was the only person in the entire group of translators whose native language wasn’t English or Chinese.

Simultaneously, in 2000-2003, the author published, in then-popular World & I Monthly, several articles compiled jointly with Dr. John Scherer. The articles described new trends in Chinese-Russian military and military-technological cooperation. Another article described the situation around North Korea and particularly, the role of Beijing and Moscow in North Korean missile-nuclear projects.

In April 2001, the author established ties with Chris Ruddy, CEO of Newsmax.com. From this moment and up to July 2003 (when the author was hit by a van under rather suspicious circumstances and had to break, for several months, most part of his working activities), the author published at least 150 short articles (about 1000 words each) on Newsmax.com.

The subjects of these articles were as follows:

· Russia: development of the Putin regime and the related rise of human rights violations in Russia; really criminal, or even cannibal, essence of Putin regime; anti-American and anti-Western trends in Moscow foreign policy; Moscow secret plot against USA; upgrading of Russias military potential; Moscows attempts to reestablish control over former Soviet republics; etc.

· China: rapid rise of high-tech sector and the related development of high-tech weaponry etc.

· Chinese-Russian ties of all kinds: all directions of military-technological cooperation; signing the 20-year Chinese-Russian Peace and Cooperation Agreement in Beijing in July 2001 and the consequences for America and the West; joint actions or supportive policy of Moscow and Beijing in regards to Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and other anti-Western regimes; joint activity of China and Russia in Central Asia, aimed at pushing out America and the West from this strategic region etc.

· 9-11 event and related issues: the author discovered, and published the related article on Newsmax.com, that Moscow knew about al-Qaeda strike in advance. (end list)

In May 2001, the author met Chris Ruddy at the Newsmax office in Palm Beach, FL. As a result, the author received a proposal to write the book The Russian-Chinese Alliance. It took the author about a year to compile this book. Dr. Thomas Torda, an expert from a Washington D.C. company engaged in research of China, became the co-author. The authors did their best, in the frame of this book, to show the newest trends of Chinese-Russian alliance development.

Currently in the present (March-June 2014), rapid rise of hostilities between America and Russia (yes, by June 2014 Moscow definitely became America’s lethal enemy and significant part of U.S. media recognized this reality already), it is necessary to emphasize the following:

In 2001-2003, rapprochement with Russia, intensive dialogue with Putin, was the official policy of George W. Bush’s Administration. American media, almost entirely, supported this policy. The author, with the assistance of then-friendly Newsmax.com, was at this time, in practice, the ‘lone fighter against Putin regime’. The author repeated again and again: don’t trust a single word of Putin and his associates, prepare to struggle against Putin regime, and reveal and punish Putin agents inside America itself. Some people trusted the author. However, the author was incapable of breaking the ‘dominant trends’. The author himself suffered greatly.

4) Projects for Fort Leavenworth

In mid-2004, the author, while basing on a recommendation from one of Department of Defense executives (we got acquainted during Language Doctors Co. annual conference in April 2004), established ties with Dr. Jacob Kipp, the chief of military research division in Fort Leavenworth. This resulted in the fulfillment of two very sophisticated projects.

The first one, which started in August 2004 and finished in February 2005, had the goal to recognize how far China moved in the development of its C4ISR system and what is the role of Russia in China’s C4ISR system development. C4ISR means Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. It is a System of Systems, uniting into single Big Systems all kinds of Small Military (weapon) Systems. Just this C4ISR system allowed USA to win Gulf War in 1991; the same is for other wars, up to Iraqi War in 2003.

After several months of very intensive research –the author used in maximal degree his abilities in Russian, English, and Chinese – the final report was ready. The following became clear:

· By the end of 2004, China achieved great progress in its own C4ISR system development. Moreover, the leaders of PLA General Staff tried to establish something better than the original U.S. C4ISR system. Namely, they decided to construct C4K (killing) ISR system. It was hard to compare the original American C4ISR system and the emerging Chinese C4KISR system. In any case, it became clear that the gap between the U.S. and China in this area decreased greatly by the end of 2004 and continues decreasing.

· Chinese experts developed the Center or the brains of their C4ISR (C4KISR) system themselves; Russian side wasnt allowed to contribute even slightly here. Russian-made weapon systems, namely fourth generation fighters SU-27 and SU-30, Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, S-300 air-defense missile systems, etc., participated only at the periphery. (end list)

In July 2005, in accordance to preliminary agreement with Fort Leavenworth, the author started accomplishing the new project Comprehensive National Power (CNP): Comparison of CNP Volumes for China and the U.S.. It appeared, from the very beginning, that CNP (zonghe guoli) term is extremely popular in China and is almost unknown in the U.S.

By September 2005, after several months of intensive searches, the author found, on Chinese language Internet, the most important document compiled by Sustainable Development Strategy Research Group, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Group claimed that in 2000, in current prices, CNP of America reached $114 trillion (first place in the world), while CNP of China reached ‘only’ $62 trillion (sixth place in the world). CNP, according to the Group, included 7 major components, primarily, Economic Potential, S&T Potential, Military Potential, etc. CNP gap between USA and China was shrinking.

However, in October 2005 it appeared that Fort Leavenworth got no money for his project (The author has his own opinion.) The author finished the project on his own and sent results to Dr. Kipp in November 2005. (Let’s finish here for time being)

References

1. Brent Routman – leading Minnesota lawyer, Twin Cities, [e-mail], 612-703-5063

2. Joel Rube – chief of venture capital company in Cleveland, Ohio, [e-mail], 216-272- 0918

3. Viktor Tukhlynovych – executive in Wells Fargo Bank, Minnesota, St. Louis Park, [e-mail], 763-438-1647

4. Mark Stipakov – Real Estate owner and investor, Minnesota, Minnetonka, [e-mail], 763-595-9595

5. Dr.Jacob Kipp – former high-level military researcher, presently the university professor, Kansas, [e-mail], 785-841-2856

6. Dr.Jacob Mirman, Life Medical clinic, Minnesota, St. Louis Park, [e-mail], 952-933-8900

The Author

Alexandr Nemets, Ph.D. in Economics, 2200 Nevada Ave. So., Apt.218, St. Louis Park, MN 55426 [e-mail] h.952-544-4176, c.952-201-0712

2. Putin Regime and its activities

The author published, between April 2001 and July 2003, at least 150 articles on Newsmax.com – on China, Russia, Chinese-Russian ties, and the related items. Many of these articles have been devoted – in great degree or entirely – to the Putin regime, its anti-American actions all over the world, and its growing hostility towards America and the entire West. Now, in May 2014, it is a very proper moment to resume publishing the articles of such kind.

1) Major Trends in Russia and Its ‘World Policy’ in 2005-2012

Let’s consider, for now, what has happened during this ‘long break’; more concretely, let’s list the major events and accomplishments (or failures) between July 2003 and the end of 2012. It would be suitable to remember that in January 2002, President George W. Bush, proclaimed, in his Address to the Nation, the crusade aimed at destruction of three major terrorist regimes, namely, North Korean, Iranian, and Iraqi ones. However, this didn’t happen. Concretely:

· America failed to topple the North Korean regime, indeed the barbaric one. Pyongyang managed to survive, in very large degree due to the direct and indirect support of Moscow, which included the political, economic, and military-technological components (the author has a lot of facts confirming these claims). One may stress that China, not Russia is the major life-line provider for North Korea, in the form of low-price or sometimes even pay-free grain, crude oil, etc. Well, at least during the last 10 or 15 years, China considers Pyongyang regime as a heavy liability; still there are some internal reasons preventing Beijing from writing off this source of troubles. To the contrary, Moscow considers Pyongyang as some kind of valuable asset; thats because Pyongyang is a permanent headache and major threat for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The testing, of nuclear devices in North Korea, in 2006 and 2010, as well as testing of ICBMs capable of reaching U.S. territory, let alone a series of smaller range missiles, caused no irritation in Moscow.

· America failed to topple the Iranian regime as well. In high degree, Tehran is obliged for its survival to almost unlimited support of Moscow. This support, just as in the case of North Korea, includes the economic, political, and military-technological component. For example, in 2006 (according to well informed Iranian opposition media), at least 36,000 Russian specialist worked at an Iranian military-industrial complex. Another example, in 2006-2007, Iran launched its first space satellites; share of Russian technology in this project accomplishing was overwhelming. By the way, what was the share of Russian technology in the development of notorious Iranian missiles with the range of 2,500-3,000 km (1,500-1,900 miles)?

· America destroyed the Saddam regime, underwent the lengthy and extremely expensive war with Iraqi guerrillas, and eventually lost Iraq. A very significant part of the country (the lower basin of Tigris and Euphrates, where more than 50% of population and economic potential is concentrated) is presently controlled by pro-Iranian Shiite government. Moscow contributed a lot to such an outcome. Particularly, most effective weaponry used by guerrillas in their fighting with U.S. and U.K. troops was of Russian origin or was assembled in Iran with Russian components. (end of US failures description)

In parallel Moscow, spared no efforts to destroy any government, in former Soviet republics, inclined to develop serious ties with America and the West and to preserve formal democracy. It is possible to give a long list of facts and actions: primarily, the bloody invasion to Georgia in August 2008 and permanent occupation of this republic’s northern part; undercutting the pro-Western government of Yushchenko – Timoshenko in Ukraine and pushing the Moscow satellite Yanukovich to power in Kiev in 2010; increasing the quantity of Russian troops and upgrading Russian military facilities in Transnistria (east part of Moldova) and Armenia; upgrading ties of all kind with anti-Western Lukashenko regime in Belarus; preventing Central