Transformational Products: The code behind digital products that are shaping our lives and revolutionizing our economies
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About this ebook
Matthias Schrader
Matthias Schrader is one of Europe's digital pioneers. He founded digital marketing and advertising agency SinnerSchrader in the mid-90s and began to develop e-commerce solutions for startups like Intershop, Ricardo and buecher.de, enabling them to go public earlier than expected. In 1999, SinnerSchrader issued a public offering of its own and was one of only a handful of fledgling companies that survived the so-called "new economy" and actually emerged strengthened by the experience. In 2006, Schrader founded the NEXT Conference which has become the leading symposium for digital transformation in Europe. Today, the author, with his team of more than 500 consultants, designers and software engineers, continues to assist many large DAX index companies to develop cutting-edge digital products. In February 2017, the worldwide management and technology consultancy Accenture announced it was taking a controlling interest in SinnerSchrader for a nine-figure sum.
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Titles in the series (11)
Transformationale Produkte: Der Code von digitalen Produkten, die unseren Alltag erobern und die Wirtschaft revolutionieren Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsTransformational Products: The code behind digital products that are shaping our lives and revolutionizing our economies Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsProduct Field - Die Referenz: Das Sense-making Framework für Produktinnovation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsProduct Field - Die Referenz: Das kognitive Medium für Innovation und gemeinschaftliches Product Thinking Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDigital Fix - Fix Digital: How to renew the digital world from the ground up Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsParallelwelten: We are now in a different world Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDigital Fix - Fix Digital: Wie wir die digitale Welt von Grund auf erneuern können Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Great Redesign: Frameworks für die Zukunft Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsNext Level CMO: How the role of marketing is changing completely Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Great Redesign: Frameworks for the Future Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsNext Level CMO: Wie sich die Rolle des Marketings völlig verändert Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
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Transformational Products - Matthias Schrader
The rise of the personal computer
MOORE’S LAW REVISITED
For more than 50 years → Moore’s Law
has been the yardstick against which digital transformation is measured. The passing of seven Moore cycles – roughly 10 years – means a processor that was once worth a thousand dollars would now cost less than a bag of coffee. Wait another seven Moore cycles and it will only cost a dime. Price isn’t the only thing that shrinks, the size of the hardware keeps getting smaller, too. A Raspberry Pi, for instance, is a fully functional PC but it only has the footprint of a credit card. In fact, the computing power of a PC you could purchase in 1999 is available today for a few cents and is ready to be built into all kinds of everyday devices and appliances.
However, you can’t simply map the exponential growth of microchips onto every business model or use it to predict how a certain product will perform in the market. In most cases progress generally follows a sigmoidal, or S-shaped, curve. Along with the exponential growth curve which keeps getting steeper and steeper, say the number of transistors you can cram into a given microchip, there are limiting factors working in the opposite direction. When introducing new products that factor is total market capacity. Even for a product that is theoretically attractive to everyone on the planet there eventually comes a point when it hits a saturation limit.
S-curve growth starts off slowly. PC development initially kicked off with the Altair 8800 (1975) and the Apple II (1977) and initial sales followed a very shallow curve. This was also true when the first wave of home computers appeared, fueled by vendors such as Commodore, Texas Instruments and Sinclair. In 1981, IBM launched its first PC, bringing computers out of the hobby cellar into the office. This development reached its pinnacle in the mid-1990s, so the S-curve took about 20 years to climax.
The introduction of the world wide web followed a similar path between 1995 and 2010. Only this time, the curve took just 15 years to achieve maturity, reaching two billion users worldwide in June 2010. The mobility cycle, which we are in the middle of right now, will progress even faster. Most experts predict the wave will top off around 2020 with virtually every person on the planet above the age of 13 owning a smartphone.
Comparing these curves proves that things are speeding up. Each technological generation profits from Moore’s Law leading to improved performance and lower costs. Originally, an IBM PC cost the equivalent of two month’s pay for an average worker but, around the turn of the century, consumers only needed to plonk down a third of a month’s salary to buy a fully-loaded notebook. A smartphone, especially if it is cross-funded by a telephone company, goes for a single Euro. An Apple Watch in 2017 boasts the same computer power as a Cray-2 supercomputer back in the mid-1980s which was then the fastest – and most expensive – computer in the world.
As for smartphones, we seem to be approaching the peak point on the curve again. The next S-curve is almost in
