Renewable Energy Prospects for Central and South-Eastern Europe Energy Connectivity (CESEC)

By International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA

Renewables could meet more than one-third of energy demand across Central and South-Eastern Europe cost effectively by 2030 with key decisions taken now.

• Language: English
• Publisher: IRENA
• Release date: Oct 1, 2020
• ISBN: 9789292602741

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© 2020 – European Union and IRENA

Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of the European Union and IRENA as the sources and copyright holders. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.

Citation: IRENA (2020), Renewable energy prospects for Central and South-Eastern Europe Energy Connectivity (CESEC), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

ISBN 978-92-9260-270-3

About IRENA

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org

About REmap

IRENA’s REmap determines the potential for countries, regions and the world to scale up renewables. REmap assesses renewable energy potential assembled from the bottom-up, starting with country analyses done in collaboration with country experts, and then aggregating these results to arrive at a global picture.

Acknowledgements

IRENA would like to thank the European Commission and the Energy Community Secretariat for the close and fruitful collaboration over the course of the study.

IRENA would also like to thank the European Commission for providing funding for this study.

This study was directed by Dolf Gielen, Director of the IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre and Ricardo Gorini, Senior Programme Officer at the Innovation and Technology Centre of IRENA. The team of analysts who prepared the resulting report included Luis Janeiro, Seán Collins, Lorenzo Sani and Seungwoo Kang. IRENA colleagues Binu Parthan, Carlos Fernandez, Elisa Asmelash, Emanuele Bianco, Emanuele Taibi, Gayathri Prakash, Hürrem Cansevdi, Maisarah Abdul Kadir, Marcin Scigan, Naida Taso, Nicholas Wagner, Rajon Bhuiyan, Rodrigo Leme and Toshimasa Masuyama also made valuable contributions.

The draft report benefited greatly from feedback and suggestions by international experts, including László Szabó (Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research [REKK]), Gustav Resch and Lukas Liebmann (Energy Economics Group – Technische Universität Wien), and Paul Deane (University College Cork).

The report also benefited from input by additional numerous country representatives and experts in the region, who provided information, reviewed country analyses and participated in review meetings. Their comments and suggestions were of great value and have shaped the final document.

Available for download: www.irena.org/publications

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Disclaimer

This publication and the material herein are provided as is. All reasonable precautions have been taken by the European Commission and IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither the European Commission, IRENA nor any of their officials, agents, data or other third party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.

The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Member States of the European Union or the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the European Commission or IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the European Commission or IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.

Cover image: NASA. Other images: Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated.

CONTENTS

Summary for policy makers

Context

Renewable energy roadmap approach

How CESEC members could scale up renewables

Benefits of the REmap scenario

Key actions to enable the transformation

Introduction

The CESEC initiative

IRENA’s engagement in the region

CESEC’s energy challenges

European energy and climate policy context

Objectives and approach to this study

Key findings

REmap potential for the CESEC region

Renewable energy deployment by source and application in 2030

REmap potential by CESEC member

Key technology enablers

Implications of the REmap Case for CESEC

Renewables in energy supply

Power generation

District heat generation

Renewables in end-use sectors

Transport

Buildings and industry

Moving forward

A regional energy transition to address common challenges in the CESEC region

CESEC members will benefit from embracing the ongoing global energy transformation .... 55 Key actions to enable the transformation

Annexes

Annex A: Methodology

Annex B: Sensitivity of REmap scenario costs to key assumptions

Annex C: Power system simulations – methodology and assumptions

Annex D: Sustainable bioenergy potential assessment

Annex E: Country factsheets

References

FIGURES

Figure ES.1: Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by CESEC member (%)

Figure 1: Cost-supply curve of REmap options for the CESEC region

Figure 2: Breakdown of gross final renewable energy consumption in the CESEC area by source and application in 2015 and 2030 (PJ) (Reference Case vs REmap)

Figure 3: Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by CESEC member (%)

Figure 4: Global weighted average LCOE of utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2019

Figure 5: Key power sector options for the CESEC region up to 2030

Figure 6: Degree of electrification of end-use sectors in CESEC (%)

Figure 7: Bioenergy supply in CESEC (PJ): 2015, Reference Case 2030, REmap 2030

Figure 8: Demand for natural gas (above) and oil (below) by CESEC member: Reference 2030 and REmap 2030 (PJ)

Figure 9: Energy-related CO 2 emissions by country: Reference Case 2030 vs REmap 2030

Figure 10: Cumulative investments in energy systems in the CESEC region over the period 2015-2030: Reference Case vs REmap (EUR million)

Figure 11: Cumulative investments 2015 2030 in REmap for each CESEC member (EUR million)

Figure 12: Historic evolution of renewable capacity (GW)

Figure 13: Power generation capacity (MW) and power generation (GWh) by technology in the base year, Reference Case 2030 and REmap 2030

Figure 14: Share of renewables in the power sector in 2015, Reference Case 2030, REmap 2030 (%) (above) and share of variable renewables (%) in REmap 2030 (below)

Figure 15: Power sector simulation approach

Figure 16: Power import and export activity in the CESEC region in the Reference Case and REmap scenarios as proportions of electricity consumption in each respective scenario for 2030

Figure 17: Hours of congestion on interconnector lines in 2030

Figure 18a: A critical week with low VRE supply in the Hungarian power system in the 2030 REmap Case

Figure 18b: A critical week with high VRE supply in the Hungarian power system in the 2030 REmap Case

Figure 19: Distributed heat generation in 2017 by source (PJ) (left axis) and distributed heat share in total heat demand (%) (right axis)

Figure 20: District heat generation by source in CESEC: Base year, Reference 2030, REmap 2030 (PJ)

Figure 21: Biofuel consumption (PJ/year) and shares (%) by CESEC country in 2017

Figure 22: Final energy consumption for transport by fuel in the CESEC region in the base year, Reference Case 2030 and REmap 2030 (PJ)

Figure 23: Breakdown of final energy consumption of energy carriers (excluding electricity) in 2017 for heat in buildings (left) and industry (right)

Figure 24: Final energy consumption by carrier in CESEC members in the base year, Reference Case 2030 and REmap 2030 (PJ)

TABLES

Table ES.1: Investment needs and economic benefits of the REmap scenario

Table 1: Investment needs and economic benefits of the REmap