Wake up America: Reaction Vs. Pre-Action in Anti-Terrorism Planning: Series 2

By Arthur Walner

Before anything else, the author would appreciate your giving attention to the Anti-Terrorism response pyramid below since the all around composition, in many ways summarize the goal of this book. When you consider the vastness of terrorism and the many directions which are and can be taken, it becomes even folly to envision that any kind of checkmate can be achieved simply on the basis of after the fact reaction. "We must seek pre-active measures". As it turns out, the author has pioneered scientific statistical prediction planning throughout his entire career. Succinctly, what this entailed is the tailgating of the subject of concern with statistical methodology that can underscore "Prediction" within selective quantitative degrees of confidence limits. The number of issues now taking place in our Country nowadays is mind-boggling. One may wonder as how to deal with this dilemma which includes such vital problems as homeland security, military, immigration, criminal justice and education. For sure, the answer to these barnburners can be amenable to scientific statistica inference planning. Unfortunately however, we may end up creating problems in lieu of solving problems due to the taking of only reactive measures.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse
• Release date: Apr 28, 2011
• ISBN: 9781456733100

Arthur Walner

Arthur H. walner was a member of the professional staffs of the Navy, Army, EPA, General Services and Cost of Living. During the period of his employment of more than 25 years he was assigned the responsibility of developing and providing instruction, guidance and review of the utilization and interpretation of statistical processes in the execution of the scientific work being performed. He was the Chief Statistician and headed one of the staff groups. To illustrate, one of the Laboratories was staffed at between 1100 and 1200, with about 450 professional personnel, and had an annual budget of between $25,000,000 and $30,000,000. The major fields of research were inertial navigation systems, electronics, materials development and various specialities in physical optics and optical data processing. The diversity of work, its priority and the highly sophisticated technical personnel engaged on the problems made unusually severe demands on Walner's technical ability, his creativity in developing experimental designs in many different disciplines and his ability to win the acceptance and respect of the scientific staff. He was successful in his efforts and the ingenuity of several of his experimental designs won recognition not only in the Laboratory, but in sponsoring organizations in Washington. He is a highly qualified, dedicated and creative mathematical statistician with a very extensive background in experimental design, in the development of effective statistical organizations and in fostering the acceptance and the effective utilization of statistical services by the potential users.

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Contents

PREFACE

FORWARD

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

INTRODUCTION & CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1:

Basic Statistical Definitions and Design Phenomenon

CHAPTER 2:

Statistical Computer Program Descriptive Statistics

CHAPTER 3:

The Operating Characteristic Curve

CHAPTER 3A:

Specification Reviewal

(Statistical Educational Memorandum NO. 1)

CHAPTER 4:

Simultaneous Factorial Comparisons

CHAPTER 5:

Criteria for Eliminating Data of Maverick Nature

CHAPTER 6:

Why Is The Objective So Important In The Statistical Planning of Experiments?

CHAPTER 7:

Analysis of Variance

CHAPTER 8:

Statistical Computer Program for Analysis of Variance

CHAPTER 9:

(Regression Analysis)

CHAPTER 10:

Statistical Computer Program Linear Regression

CHAPTER 11:

(Multiple Regression)

CHAPTER 12:

Statistical Computer Program for Multiple Regression

CHAPTER 13:

(Operations Research)

CHAPTER 14:

Statistical Computer Program for Mann Whitney U Test

CHAPTER 15:

Scientific Explanations and Definitions

CHAPTER 16:

Conclusion

APPENDIX A:

APPENDIX B:

BIBLIOGRAPHY

PREFACE

Prevention is perhaps one of the most used and important alerts to our every day life style but in many instances, it should be understood that more quantitative rather than mere qualitative outlooks can be quite imperative. Such is the case with respect to terrorism prevention. Thus far, I am referring to my writing of two series of Wake Up America books. The first titled To Crime prevention And Anti-Terrorism and the second and subject one To Re VS. Pre-Active Anti-Terrorism Planning.

The Department of Homeland Security offers us some degree of solace and knowledge about expectations and what, if any avoidance steps can be taken via www.ready.gov or call 1-800-237-3239. Other than that, we are like sitting ducks if God Forbid we are victimized by a biological, chemical, nuclear or radiological attack.

I readily admit that a scientific statistical prevention approach is no panacea to the art of prevention configuration, but if my books serve to open the eyes of our future anti-terrorism scientists as well as all other fighters, in my opinion, it would be just what our Country mandates.

FORWARD

The major consideration that was given in the writing of this book has been to provide further real time illustrations of the Scientific Planning aspects specified in my book Wake Up America To Crime And Terrorism Prevention. As previously given, Scientific Planning (SP)   is given as a composite of mathematical statistics, operations research and stochastic processes. My pioneering efforts over a great number of years toward this end have been grouped together for ready accessibility as educational memoranda which will e displayed in each of the Chapters of this book.

The material in these memoranda can be applied to virtually all branches of the Physical Science, Engineering, Economic, Business and Medical fields. The educational intent is to stimulate the readers interest in these subject methodologies and specifically how they can be transferred to provide reliable prediction measures.

When you think of anti-terrorism measures, it becomes a mind boggling synopsis. For example, it has been exclaimed that a car bombing is impossible to predict. Normally, in a kind of singular way of looking at it, I might agree, however, it is my opinion that when you statistically mix-match all the variables that are of consideration, it may very well be that a significant prediction can be formulated for immediate operational response.

Needless to say, perhaps more than ever before and as well in consideration of the elements of terrorism threats which now exist, it is mandatory that terrorism prevention be given the highest of priority. With respect to this, I again urge that the contents of my most recent published book Wake Up America To Crime Prevention And Anti-Terrorism be carefully studied by all those engaged in terrorism prevention. Former Attorney General Ashcroft maintained that the prime reason why there were no terrorism attacks on USA soil since 9/11 were due to the crime prevention measures that were taken by our Police Departments since 9/11. I proudly believe that I was one of these participants when I was Director of Operational Planning for the DC Police Department which incidentally resulted in a 400 percent crime decrease as corroborated by FBI Statistics. Briefly, due to my mathematical and statistical background, I was able to develop a scientific planning format which could coincided with real time operational phenomenon that were permissible on a practical scale. For example, one of the simplest but yet very effective modifications was the interchanging of the independent and dependent variables.

I was surprised, if not amazed to learn that this kind of quantitative scientific planning was not at all contained in our libraries or book stores. Attempts to bring this to the attention of those engaged in anti terrorism have not been effective and without going through a horrendous and time wasting explanation which to most should be understandable. I firmly believe with all my heart that bringing the alternative position of freely providing those engaged in anti-terrorism with my book and associated consultation, if needed, could be both very operational and cost effective. This could be easily accomplished with a dynamic grant providing me funds on an as needed basis.

Just a little while back, anti-terrorism expert analyst Fade predicted that a terrorist attack will be expected within the next few months. Although I find no fault wit his targeting ideology as the mainstream, I find that there remains a much greater need for specifics..

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I can not say enough to thank my wife Anne for her editing expertise, her patience and caring for me during my battling with invasive heart problems.

I would also like to give thanks to Dr. Marcelo Heiguera, Head of Cardiac Pacing and Electrophysiology at Cleveland Clinic and his nurse, Nancy for her patience and courtesy and also for Dr. Scott Berenson, Internist for helping me reach medical adroitness.

INTRODUCTION & CONTENTS

I think that no one will argue with the fact that terrorists can strike America anytime, almost anywhere. The extremists want us to grow timid and weary in the face of their willingness to kill randomly and kill innocent people. Various episodes showed once again that even a relatively small number of insurgents are able to carry out sophisticated lethal strikes against American interests abroad, even amid heavy security or crackdowns.

Beyond this, when you consider the vastness of terrorism and the directions which are being taken, it becomes even folly to envision that any kind of checkmate can be achieved by reactionary formulas. We must seek pro=active methods that can be used to halt the on going onslaught of people of all denominations who wish to live in a free and just world.

Statements of encouragement such as Tom Brokaw’s We need to find new solutions to our problems. Senator Joseph Lieberman highlighting the need for Problem Solving and former Secretary of Defense Cohen specified the need for better Intelligence and Police Operations as the keys to fight terrorism are absolutely necessary to foster an all out provision to mandate this kind of research endeavor. As it turned out, strictly by in-house need, I have pioneered scientific statistical planning and evaluation throughout my entire career. Succinctly, what this entailed is the tailgating of the subject of concern with methodology that can underscore Prediction within given degrees of confidence settings. The subjects of concern have been with the USA Army re propellant and high explosive production, the USA Navy re transistor life, the Environment, General Services, Cost of Living, Police Department Pharmaceuticals and Anti-Terrorism. The number of issues now taking place in our Country nowadays is mind-boggling. One may wonder as to how to deal with this dilemma which includes such vital problems such as homeland security, military, immigration, criminal justice and education. For sure the answer to these barnburners can be most amenable to scientific statistical inference planning. Unfortunately however, we end up creating problems in lieu of solving problems due to in many cases, the taking of only reactive measures.

Upon subsequently reviewing the articles The Psychoanalytic Roots of Islamic Terrorism by Phyllis Chesler and The Triumph of Islam by Anthony Browne both of IsraPost, it came to me that should these articles be accurate, it follows that it opens the door to a Pro-active analysis program, that can be of tremendous value and life saving to all who are involved.

I think it quite precarious to get into any discussion about religion, however perhaps there will be no disagreement with the assumption that A truly religious person is one who means no harm within or between his or her station. In light of this, what should we consider the risks to be concerning the exceedingly pathological strain of ofascist terrorism. What