SUMMARY - Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock And Dan Gardner
Written by Shortcut Edition
Narrated by Digital Voice Mike G
()
About this audiobook
This audiobook is narrated by a digital voice.
By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts.
You will also discover that :
- many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify;
- the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations;
- the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities;
- any forecast must be supported by a numerical probability, an assumption with clearly defined terms;
- a good forecaster is rigorous, intellectually humble and able to consider a multitude of perspectives.
In the media as well as in government, forecasting plays a central role. They have an impact on all the strategies of leaders. A battery of influential experts is therefore constantly in demand. But how reliable are their diagnoses? Very competent people often make vague or even erroneous estimates. "On the other hand, some less well-known forecasters reveal surprising results. Here is their secret: they don't have any particular gift, but they do have a method.
More audiobooks from Shortcut Edition
SUMMARY - The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari: A Fable About Fulfilling Your Dreams: Reaching Your Destiny By Robin Sharma Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Go Pro: 7 Steps To Becoming A Network Marketing Professional By Eric Worre Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5SUMMARY - The Road To Character By David Brooks Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5SUMMARY - The Paradox Of Choice: Why More Is Less By Barry Schwartz Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5SUMMARY - Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts By Annie Duke Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Why Nations Fail: The Origins Of Power, Prosperity, And Poverty By Daron Acemoglu And James A. Robinson Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The Six Pillars Of Self-Esteem By Nathaniel Branden Rating: 1 out of 5 stars1/5SUMMARY - The Challenger Sale: How To Take Control Of The Customer Conversation By Matthew Dixon And Brent Adamson Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Oversubscribed: How To Get People Lining Up To Do Business With You By Daniel Priestley Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5SUMMARY - The Culture Map: Breaking Through The Invisible Boundaries Of Global Business By Erin Meyer Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us By Daniel H. Pink Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - UNSCRIPTED: Life, Liberty, And The Pursuit Of Entrepreneurship By M J DeMarco Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The 80 20 Principle: The Secret To Achieving More With Less By Richard Koch Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The Biology Of Belief: Unleashing The Power Of Consciousness, Matter Miracles By Bruce H. Lipton Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5SUMMARY - To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others By Daniel H. Pink Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5SUMMARY - Conscious Business: How To Build Value Through Values By Fred Kofman Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Business Adventures: Twelve Classic Tales From The World Of Wall Street By John Brooks Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don’t Work And What To Do About It By Michael E. Gerber Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy Of The Mass Media By Edward S. Herman And Noam Chomsky Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Musicophilia: Tales Of Music And The Brain By Oliver Sacks Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - You Are The Placebo: Making Your Mind Matter By Dr. Joe Dispenza Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The Four Agreements: A Practical Guide To Personal Freedom By Don Miguel Ruiz Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - The Slight Edge By Jeff Olson Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSUMMARY - Untamed: Stop Pleasing, Start Living By Glennon Doyle Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Related to SUMMARY - Superforecasting
Related audiobooks
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Cost-Benefit Revolution Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Randomness Explained Rating: 2 out of 5 stars2/5Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Behavioral Economics: The Basics Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Principles of economics Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsNeuroeconomics Fundamentals Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Number That Killed Us: A Story of Modern Banking, Flawed Mathematics, and a Big Financial Crisis Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Era of Uncertainty: Global Investment Strategies for Inflation, Deflation, and the Middle Ground Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRisk Dollarisation® Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHedging Demystified: How to Balance Risk and Protect Profit Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Evergreen Portfolio: Timeless Strategies to Survive and Prosper from Investing Pros Rating: 2 out of 5 stars2/5Summary of Javier Blas & Jack Farchy's The World for Sale Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Unrules: Man, Machines and the Quest to Master Markets Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Lecturing Birds on Flying: Can Mathematical Theories Destroy the Financial Markets Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and Confusion de Confusiones Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Inside the House of Money, Revised and Updated: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Profiting in the Global Markets Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Economic Naturalist's Field Guide: Common Sense Principles for Troubled Times Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5History of Big Recessions Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Auction Theory Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Essentials of Risk Management, 3e Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRadical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Endgame: The End of The Best Supercycle And How It Changes Everything Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Better than Alpha: Three Steps to Capturing Excess Returns in a Changing World Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Fundamentals of Hedge Fund Management: How to Successfully Launch and Operate a Hedge Fund Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5
Reviews for SUMMARY - Superforecasting
0 ratings0 reviews