“We’ve been pacing all morning, looked at a thousand forecast models and now we’ve got the dice in the back pocket and we’re going to go out there and give it a go!”
Justin Ferris, sailing master on the Botin 52 Caro, was echoing the thoughts of almost every navigator across the fleet of 103 yachts, mere hours before the start of the 2023 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race.
For a week leading up to the Boxing Day start, a large low pressure system had been hanging persistently over the New South Wales and Victorian border, throwing off clusters of thunderstorms like grenades and leaving forecasters and navigators alike baffled as to when it would move and in what direction. The uncertainty persisted all the way to race day, the only consensus being that there were probably three race tracks to choose from to reach Bass Strait and still be on race pace.
Down the rhumbline – with the current assisting but lots of wind ‘holes’ – had most appeal for the smaller yachts. Heading offshore inthe forecast south-westerly started to build. But the biggest gamble was for the 50- to 60-footers; follow the Maxis offshore and there was a chance of ‘missing the cut’ if the low moved east before boats reached Green Cape, at the entrance to Bass Strait. Heading east of the rhumbline – where there should be more breeze but it was likely to still be patchy – was an unhappy compromise too.
