Will Singapore's birth rates get a boost in 'auspicious' year of the dragon?

While being a "dragon baby" - being born in the auspicious year of the dragon in the Chinese zodiac - has made her feel "special", Singaporean Laura Lee, 24, said it came with a price: fiercer competition throughout her academic life.

"I like to read about [the Chinese zodiac] and check my fortune, so it's quite fun but at the same time it's quite annoying having so many people to compete with academically," Lee said, pointing to the larger cohort sizes in primary and secondary schools due to a preference for dragon babies.

"We had two or three classes [in the cohort] more compared to our seniors," she said.

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Like Lee, Stephanie Ho, 37, who is eight months pregnant with her second child, is also worried that her child would have to compete with more people in school.

Ho, a teacher, said there would typically be "at least one more class" for primary school kids born in past dragon years - such as 1988, 2000 and 2012.

The Chinese zodiac has a 12-year cycle and is represented by 12 animals - the rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog and pig.

"If every primary school has one more class [for those born in the dragon year], how many more babies are there?" she said.

Ho and Lee however, like many ethnic Chinese in Singapore, are not immune to the mystical appeal of the dragon zodiac, which is believed to be associated with good fortune, strength and intellect.

Those born in the Year of the Dragon have auspicious qualities, according to David Goh, a feng shui master and founder of fengshui consultancy Imperial Harvest.

"Dragon babies, irrespective of gender, inherit auspicious qualities deeply rooted in the principles of feng shui, embodying the harmonious balance between strength, intelligence, and charisma that heralds prosperity and success in all aspects of life," he said.

This belief has led many Chinese to try to conceive dragon babies. In previous dragon years, mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore had recorded a significant jump in fertility rates, the BBC previously reported.

In 2000, the birth rate in Hong Kong increased by 5 per cent and in 2012, China saw births rise by 950,000, official statistics revealed.

Singapore's total fertility rate in 2012 rose to a five-year high of 1.29, according to official data. In 2000, the total fertility rate inched up to 1.6 from 1.47 in 1999.

In his annual Lunar New Year message on Friday, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged residents to welcome a "little dragon to your family".

"Many Chinese families consider a child born in the year of the dragon to be especially auspicious, the dragon being a symbol of power, strength and good fortune," he said.

"So now is as good a time as any for young couples to add a 'little dragon' to your family."

Singapore's birth rate has been on the decline since the 1960s but increased in previous years of the dragon. The total fertility rate declined to a low of 1.04 in 2022, almost half of the replacement level of 2.1.

"All over the world, especially in developed societies like Singapore, fertility rates have been declining. Each generation has different aspirations. Many young people prioritise developing their careers, spending quality time with their partners, and pursuing other interests," Lee said.

"Even couples who want kids may put off starting families, not realising how quickly it gets harder with each passing year."

Singaporean Bryan Josal, 23, is among those hoping to have a "little dragon".

A dragon baby himself, Josal said he would like to have a child this year, as he had been raised in a Chinese family that placed great importance on cultural beliefs and superstitions.

"I think being a dragon baby is quite cool. It's the only mythical creature in the Chinese zodiac and it's supposed to be a good year," the Indonesian-Chinese said. "Being about 24 years older than your kid seems pretty good to be a cool, young parent - so that's a factor for me as well."

However, there is irony in having a child during years that are widely seen as more auspicious, warns Tan Poh Lin, senior research fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies.

"Demographers have long hypothesised and observed that larger birth cohorts face worse social and economic prospects in life than smaller cohorts, due to increased competition for limited resources ranging from school admissions and jobs to housing and desirable marriage partners," she said.

"By striving to give birth at the same time due to superstitious beliefs, parents inadvertently contribute to a coordination problem that is unlikely to produce the advantages that they seek for their children."

Nonetheless, the rarity of auspicious events such as the dragon year could still "tip the calculus" for couples who are already thinking about having a child, Tan noted.

For Pan Qingyi, 38, who is expecting her second child next month, zodiac and astrology are the last things on her mind.

"I don't think it's very important or different. I hear a lot of people telling me about the luck of the year of the dragon then I think 'wow, it's going to be a good year ahead'. But actually, I'm just happy to have a second baby."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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