Biden’s Numbers, January 2024 Update

Summary

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Here’s how the United States has fared since President Joe Biden took office three years ago:

• The economy added more than 14 million jobs. The number is now nearly 4.9 million higher than before the pandemic.

• The unemployment rate dropped back to just above the pre-pandemic low; unfilled job openings again outnumber unemployed job seekers.

• Inflation spiked to the highest level in over 40 years. Despite recent moderation, consumer prices are up nearly 18% overall during Biden’s time. Gasoline is up 29%.

• Average weekly earnings haven’t kept pace with prices. After adjusting for inflation, “real” weekly earnings declined 3.4%.

• Defying expectations, the nation’s economy expanded 2.5% in 2023, marking the third straight year of economic growth.

• Crime data show a decrease in murders in U.S. cities in 2022 and 2023.

• The S&P 500 has increased 28.2%.

• The number of apprehensions of those trying to cross the southern border illegally remains near historical highs. For the 12 months ending in November, apprehensions are up 296%.

• For the third straight year, gun purchases declined, as measured by background checks for firearm sales.

• Crude oil production is up 12.7%; imports are up 8.7%.

• The trade deficit for goods and services is about 20.9% higher.

• The number of people without health insurance has gone down; enrollment in Affordable Care Act marketplace plans is at its highest point yet.

• The number of people receiving federal food assistance has declined by more than 700,000.

• The publicly held debt has increased by about 24.7%.

Analysis

Biden, who appears to be headed for a rematch with former President Donald Trump, is going into an election year with some favorable and unfavorable numbers. Unemployment is down, and consumer confidence is rising. But overall inflation is high, and wages aren’t keeping pace with inflation.

Here, we present those and other statistical measures in our latest installment of our quarterly feature, “Biden’s Numbers.” We take no position on how much credit or blame Biden deserves, following the same approach we took when we did “Trump’s Numbers.”

Jobs and Unemployment

The number of people with jobs rebounded strongly during Biden’s time, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by almost 4.9 million.

Employment — The U.S. economy added 14,263,000 jobs between Biden’s inauguration and December, the latest month for which data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The December figure is 4,861,000 higher than the February 2020 peak of employment before COVID-19 forced massive shutdowns and layoffs.

Some categories are still lagging, however. There were 28,000 fewer public school teachers and other local government education workers in December than there were at the pre-pandemic peak, and 183,000 fewer hotel and restaurant workers and others in the accommodation and food services industries.

Unemployment — The unemployment rate fell from 6.4% at the time Biden took office to 3.4% in January 2023 and again in April, the lowest since June 1969. Since then, the rate has crept up — but only to 3.7% in December, just 0.2 point above the pre-pandemic rate.

Job Openings — The number of unfilled job openings soared, reaching a record of over 12 million in March 2022, but then declined after the Federal Reserve began a steep series of interest rate increases aimed at cooling the economy to bring down price inflation.

The number of unfilled jobs was just under 8.8 million as of the last business day of November, the most recent month on record. That’s still an increase of over 1.6 million openings — or nearly 23% — during Biden’s time.

In November, there was an average 1.4 jobs for every unemployed job seeker. When Biden took office, there were fewer job openings than unemployed job seekers.

The number of job openings in December is set to be released Jan. 30.

 — One reason many job openings go unfilled is that millions of Americans left the workforce during the pandemic and haven’t returned. The  (the percentage of the total population over age 16 that is either