Biden’s Numbers, October 2023 Update

Summary

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Since President Joe Biden took office:

• The economy added 13.9 million jobs, putting the total 4.5 million higher than before the pandemic.

• The unemployment rate dropped for a time to the lowest in nearly 54 years; unfilled job openings surged, with 3 jobs for every 2 unemployed job seekers.

• Inflation surged to the highest level in over 40 years. Despite slowing their rise lately, consumer prices are up nearly 17.1% overall. Gasoline is up 50.3%.

• Average weekly earnings haven’t kept pace with prices. After adjusting for inflation, “real” weekly earnings dropped 3.9%.

• The U.S. murder rate declined by one-half of a point.

• Defying economists who have been predicting a recession for more than a year, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second quarter.

• After-tax corporate profits increased in the second quarter of this year — the first increase in a year.

• Inflation-adjusted median household income went down by 2.7%. The official poverty rate is the same as the year before he took office.

• Those lacking health insurance went down — by 0.7 percentage points by one measure and 1.3 points by another.

• U.S. crude oil production is up 10.7%; imports are up 7.4%.

• Homeownership rates have barely budged under Biden.

• The U.S. accepted 60,014 refugees in fiscal year 2023 — the highest amount in seven years, but less than half of Biden’s campaign goal of admitting up to 125,000.

• The number of apprehensions of those trying to cross the southern border illegally crept back up in recent months, and is up 300% overall.

• Debt held by the public has increased by 22.5%.

• The trade deficit for goods and services has gone up by 24.6%.

Analysis

This is our eighth installment of “Biden’s Numbers,” a quarterly feature we launched in January 2022. As we also did for former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, we provide the latest statistics on a range of topics from authoritative sources on what has happened in the country since the president was inaugurated.

Opinions will vary on whether a president deserves credit or blame for these figures, and we take no position on that.

Jobs and Unemployment

The number of people with jobs has increased dramatically since Biden took office, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 4.5 million.

Employment — The U.S. economy added 13,905,000 jobs between Biden’s inauguration and September, the latest month for which data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September figure is 4,503,000 higher than the February 2020 peak of employment before COVID-19 forced massive shutdowns and layoffs.

Some categories are still lagging, however. There were 89,000 fewer public school teachers and other local government education workers in September than there were at the pre-pandemic peak, and 187,500 fewer hotel and restaurant workers and others in the accommodation and food services industries.

Unemployment — The unemployment rate fell from 6.3% at the time Biden took office to 3.4% in January and again in April, the lowest since June 1969. Most recently the rate has crept up to 3.8% in September, or 0.3 points above the pre-pandemic rate.

Job Openings — The number of unfilled job openings soared, reaching a record of over 12 million in March of last year, but then declined after the Federal Reserve began a steep series of interest rate increases aimed at cooling the economy to bring down price inflation.

The number of unfilled jobs was 9.6 million as of the last business day of August, the most recent month on record. That’s still an increase of over 2.4 million openings — or 34% — during Biden’s time.

In August, there was an average 3 jobs for every 2 unemployed job seekers. When Biden took office, there were more unemployed job seekers than job openings.