What's behind North Korea's 'exceptional' earthquake condolences to Japan?

North Korea's Kim Jong-un has caught the Japanese government off guard by sending his condolences for the earthquake that struck Japan on New Year's Day, causing at least 130 deaths.

The leader had never previously sent a personal message of condolence to Japan after a natural disaster, saving such expressions of regret for fellow communist regimes and key strategic partners instead.

Analysts say Tokyo was taken aback by the missive, and is attempting to discern Pyongyang's motivation.

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"The Japanese government was caught completely by surprise by this message and is still trying to understand Kim's reasoning," said Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and an authority on North Korea's ruling family.

The message was conveyed in a letter to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that arrived on Friday, with Pyongyang's state-run Korea Central News Agency stating in a report that Kim "sincerely hoped that the people in the affected areas would eradicate the aftermath of earthquakes and restore their stable lives at the earliest date possible".

Kim addressing Kishida as "Your Excellency" in the letter has also raised eyebrows in Tokyo.

"This is the first time Kim has done anything like this and his father [Kim Jong-il] never sent a personal message after the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, which was far more destructive than this disaster," said Shigemura, who believes North Korea had two primary motives for sending the message.

"North Korea is struggling and they are looking for better relations with Japan in the hope that Tokyo will relax its sanctions," he said. "Pyongyang is aware that the UN sanctions will remain in place, but it is still hopeful that if it can improve the relationship, then Japan might become more willing to lift some of the sanctions."

Japan has been a firm supporter of UN Security Council sanctions imposed over the North's development of nuclear weapons and a series of underground tests, as well as its development and launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles and a military spy satellite.

Tokyo also unilaterally put its own sanctions in place in an effort to pressure North Korea to release Japanese nationals abducted by the regime. Officially, Tokyo lists 17 nationals as having been abducted, but human rights activists believe the real figure to be more than 100.

Kim's other reason for sending condolences is likely linked to Pyongyang's deteriorating relationship with South Korea. The North's supreme leader has in recent days dramatically ramped up his rhetoric against the government of President Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul, emphasising his hostility with three days of live-fire artillery drills off the west coast of the peninsula.

Shigemura said Pyongyang likely aims to put a dent in the evolving South Korea-US-Japan security alliance that the conservative Yoon has pursued.

"There are less than 100 days to go before the South Korean election and Kim does not want Seoul and Tokyo to get any closer," he said.

South Korea is set to hold its next legislative election in April, with all 300 National Assembly seats up for grabs.

"Kim is hoping to cause problems for Yoon by being friendly to Japan and potentially isolating the South, damaging Yoon's hopes in the election," Shigemura said. "Any sort of instability that they can cause will help the North because criticism of Yoon's administration could translate into votes for the left-wing opposition."

Yoon has taken a far firmer stance against the North than his liberal predecessor Moon Jae-in and Pyongyang would prefer to see the incumbent's ruling People Power Party hobbled, Shigemura said.

Kim also sent a message of condolence to the Iranian leadership over a bomb blast on January 3 that killed around 100 people. Similar messages have previously been sent after natural disasters or the death of high-ranking officials to the governments of China, Russia and other nations with which Pyongyang has diplomatic ties.

Rah Jong-yil, a former diplomat and head of the South Korean intelligence department charged with monitoring North Korea, described Kim's message as "exceptional".

"It suggests to me that they are trying to start something with Japan and improve relations that have been badly strained for many years," he said.

"I also believe it is possible that there may even be developments already taking place," Rah said. "There were vague reports last year of North Korean and Japanese diplomats holding 'informal' talks in Southeast Asia and suggestions that the North was eager to be speaking with Japan."

"These things take time, but it is possible that those talks have made some progress and the two governments do have a better working relationship," he added.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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