The Atlantic

Pro-Israel Lobbies Are Backing Winners, Not Creating Them

Both AIPAC and its critics have claimed that its dollars have determined recent Democratic primaries. A closer look at the contests tells a very different story.
Representative Haley Stevens speaks at an event with House Democrats on September 28, 2021. (Getty)

Last Tuesday night in the Democratic primary for Michigan’s Eleventh District, Representative Haley Stevens defeated Representative Andy Levin by a decisive margin of 20 percent. For most of the country, these two names mean nothing, and this intra-party contest barely registered. But for a subset of activists focused on Israel, the election has taken on outsize importance. That’s because Levin, a Jewish labor organizer and former synagogue president, is known as one of Israel’s strongest critics in Congress, while Stevens is aligned with the more centrist pro-Israel approach of most Democratic lawmakers today. When redistricting caused the two members to run against each other, dueling Israel-related money followed. A super PAC aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) poured $4 million into the race supporting Stevens. J Street, a liberal Zionist group and staunch ally of Levin, spent $700,000 behind him. In the end, the candidate with the bigger Israel outlay won: Stevens trounced Levin 60 percent to 40 percent.

The story I just told is technically true, but it is mostly misleading. Here’s another one. Consider this hypothetical matchup between two Democrats in Michigan:

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