Are flying taxis set to soar in Japan or face turbulence from tech and safety barriers?

Japan has taken a significant step in the race to be the first country to have flying taxis serving its major cities following the signing of an agreement to develop take-off and landing infrastructure.

All Nippon Airways (ANA) Holdings Inc partnered with California-based Joby Aviation in 2022 to bring electric-powered air taxi services to Japan. The two companies last week announced a tie-up with Nomura Real Estate Development Co, one of the largest property developers in Japan, to initially build "vertiports" in major urban districts before expanding to link the entire country.

Under the agreement, the three firms will make plans for the location, design, operation and financing of vertiports, with the first sites likely to be on floating platforms on Tokyo Bay or just off Osaka.

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Transport analysts, however, caution that the launch of flying taxi services is not imminent, as no government has yet approved airborne cars, and several technical, legal and safety hurdles remain to be overcome.

"I reckon it will be at least three years and probably closer to five years before this becomes commonplace. Even then, they will have to operate in very limited areas, on specific routes and at certain heights and speeds," said Peter Lyon, a motoring correspondent for Forbes.

While Japan may have ambitions to lead the world in this mode of transport and organisers of the Osaka Expo are hoping to showcase the technology when the event opens in 2025, Japan faces some unique challenges. These include narrow streets and, most importantly, vast networks of above-ground power lines.

In 2018, Japan became the first country in the world to develop a detailed air mobility road map, bringing together private companies, academia and the government to push ahead with an "air mobility revolution".

It was hoped that a flying car would take to the skies as part of the opening ceremony for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, but that dream was dashed by the technology not being ready in time and the sporting event was derailed by the coronavirus pandemic.

The vision remains, however, for fleets of flying cars capable of vertical take-offs and landings that do not require large areas for runways and, ultimately, operate autonomously. Proponents hope these vehicles can lead to a reduction in road traffic and operate in the event of a natural disaster.

Joby Aviation announced in October 2022 that it had applied to the Japanese government to operate a commercial passenger service for its five-seat piloted eVTOL aircraft "to connect people and cities through fast, quiet and emissions-free flight".

Speaking to This Week in Asia, an official of airline ANA said no dates have been set for the development of vertiports in Tokyo or elsewhere, but she added: "We hope to be able to do the first flight at the Osaka Expo in 2025, which would mean having certification for the aircraft in 2024 or the early part of 2025.

"In 2025, Joby plans to open a large, mass-production facility in the US and once these vehicles are being produced in large numbers we will have a better sense of how they can be deployed in the US and Japan," the official said.

Several other private firms are also working on similar flying car projects, she said, including in the US, Europe and Japan.

Lyon agreed that the technology for the vehicles was making great strides and that the first piloted car was likely to be airborne in a year or so, but there were still many barriers to navigate.

"I liken this to the revolution in autonomous driving," he said. "The technology has been around for a while now, but when you look around there are only a very few cars actually on the road today with level three autonomous driving, and even then they are only able to operate on certain roads, at certain speeds and under other specific conditions.

"They are very controlled, and that is a good thing because there have been accidents," according to Lyon. In future, accidents involving flying vehicles would "almost certainly" happen, he added.

As the vehicles will be electric, range will be an issue that needs to be addressed, with early units likely to be limited to a flying time of 30 minutes and a top speed of 120kmh, said Lyon, who anticipates that the first routes are likely to be shuttle flights from pads on Tokyo Bay to Haneda Airport, a short hop over water to the south.

"There is going to be range anxiety, at first, and the technology is challenging," Lyon said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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