The Atlantic

Why a Blue-Leaning Swing State Is Getting Redder

Joe Biden’s standing in Nevada probably isn’t as bad as polling suggests. But Democrats should still be worried.
Source: Bridget Bennett / Bloomberg / Getty

Last week, when The New York Times and Siena College released a poll that showed President Joe Biden in trouble in battleground states, Democrats began to sound apocalyptic. The panic, turbocharged by social media, was disproportionate to what the surveys actually showed. Although the results in my home state, Nevada, were the worst for the president out of the six swing states that were polled, the findings are almost certainly not reflective of the reality here, at least as I’ve observed it and reported on it.

Nevertheless, they bring to the surface trends that should worry Democrats—and not just in Nevada.

The /Siena data show Donald Trump ahead of Biden in Nevada 52 percent to 41 percent, a much larger margin than

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