OST MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE predictable affairs—the party in the White House loses seats (often, a lot of seats), voter turnout sinks—but not this year. Shifting momentum has kept the surprises coming.
Early expectations of a red rout that would allow Republicans to wrest control of both houses of Congress yielded to predictions this summer that Democrats would retain a slim majority in the Senate and lose fewer seats in the House than initially thought, as rising anger over abortion access in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade competed with concerns about a flailing economy and high inflation for voters’ attention. Some key legislative victories for President Joe Biden and the emergence of a slate of GOP nominees for Congress and statewide offices deemed too extreme by many general-election swing voters added to the Democrats’ rising fortunes.
Lately, though, the pendulum seems to be swinging back the other way, at least a bit, as talk of recession heats up again and a barrage of GOP campaign ads hits the airwaves. Indeed, competition for voter attention is so unusually intense this election season that some $10 billion is expected in campaign ad spending, eclipsing the record $8.5 billion set in 2020.
The result: With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, dozens of high-profile races appear to be statistical dead heats, leaving prognosticators looking a lot like the shrug emoji. And a fired-up electorate seems likely to break turnout records for non-presidential years.
Why is this midterm election defying the post-presidential year doldrums? Clearly the immediate stakes are high: Control of Congress will dictate whether Biden is able to enact any meaningful legislation over the coming two years or is stymied by the opposition party. Republicans need a net gain of only five seats in the House and just one seat in the Senate to win a majority in each chamber. That’s historical chump change compared to typical midterm
